Braves vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2024

Braves at Mariners

7:40 pm • BSSO

Atlanta Braves

7-7

5 - 2

Seattle Mariners

6-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
E.Hancock			4.75	4-4
C.Sale			2.38	18-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 7-7	-1.5-110	o7-119	-191
Mariners 6-12	+1.5-110	u7-102	+160

Wednesday 7:40 p.m.

May 01, 2024

T-Mobile ParkSeattle

ATL -185

M.Ozuna o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-125

1.25u

ATL -180 (F5)

C.Sale o17.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Sale has been really solid - 3.69 ERA / 3.12 xERA. Inducing weak contact (88th percentile hard hit%) and ground balls (76th percentile). He’s also garnering strikes at a 71% clip due to his high chase rate. The Mariners due see a lot of pitches, but they’ve also been miserable vs lefties - 83 wRC+ and .614 OPS. 6/L6 lefty starters have cleared their outs line vs SEA. And Sale is at 7 IP in each of his last three starts.

ATL -160 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -175

ATL -158

0.5u

Featured Insight
Braves RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB. Mariners have struck out 25% since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mariners RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves have struck out 28% over the last week -- second highest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Bets
Sean Zerillo•
May 1, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Mariners are 28-4 (.875) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Mariners are 73-14 (.839) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .785.

The Braves are 17-54 (.239) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

Julio Rodriguez has struck out in 26% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 11th Percentile. A.J. Minter has a strikeout rate of 33% since the 2022 season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

5 of Chris Sale's breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan -- 96th Percentile.

Chris Sale has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.9 MPH (80 batted balls) this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9 -- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (15/87) against Emerson Hancock over the last 14 days -- 4th lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% -- seventh Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mariners are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Mariners' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	74-88	38-43	36-45	47-62	26-26
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mariners	76-76-10	31-45-5	45-31-5	50-55-4	25-21-6
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	85-77	49-32	36-45	62-47	23-29
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	ATL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7	SEA +105
Apr 30th	ATL	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7	SEA +135
Apr 28th	ARI	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 6.5	ARI -141
Apr 28th	ARI	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7	SEA -155
Apr 27th	ARI	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	SEA +110

Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out with knee
Out
Joe Jimenez
P
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	100	5	9	1
LD.Lee, P	24	1.2	2	1
LA.Minter, P	8	0.1	1	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	13	1	0	0
RR.Iglesias, P	17	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	2-5	2	1
2O.Albies, 2B	1-4	1	0
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	0	1
5M.Ozuna, DH	0-2	0	1
6A.Duvall, LF	0-4	0	0
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-4	1	0
9C.Tromp, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RE.Hancock, P	77	3.2	4	1
RT.Thornton, P	10	1.1	0	0
RT.Miller, P	29	2	2	0
LT.Saucedo, P	5	1	0	0
RA.Voth, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rodriguez, CF	3-5	1	0
2M.Haniger, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Polanco, 2B	2-5	0	2
4C.Raleigh, DH	0-4	0	0
5T.France, 1B	2-4	0	0
6D.Moore, SS	1-4	0	0
7L.Urias, 3B	0-3	0	0
8S.Haggerty, LF	0-3	0	0
8J.Rojas, PH	0-1	0	0
8J.Rojas, LF	0-1	0	0
9S.Zavala, C	2-3	1	0
9L.Raley, PH	0-0	0	0