Braves vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 18, 2024

Braves at Reds

10:40 pm • BSOH

Atlanta Braves

0-0

7 - 1

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Junis			2.85	0-0
S.Schwellenbach			3.35	8-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-0	-1.5+117	o8.5-110	-137
Reds 0-0	+1.5-139	u8.5-110	+117

Wednesday 10:40 p.m.

September 18, 2024

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

Under 8.5-110

0.91u

#ProSystem . umpire friendly unders Overall: 2155-1497-186,59% (ROI:14%) Season:75-45-4,63% (ROI:21%)

ATL -0.5 (F5)+102

1.02u

#ProSystem … f5 favs runline on a losing streak vs non division team Overall: 183-159-0,54% (ROI:19%) Season:13-7-0,65% (ROI:27%)

ATL -140

0.71u

Under 8.5-110

S.Schwellenbach o5.5 Ks-105

1.05u

S.Schwellenbach o5.5 Ks-110

S.Schwellenbach o5.5 Ks-113

1.13u

S.Schwellenbach o5.5 Ks-110

1.1u

Burned us the last two times we bet on him, but those were in admittedly tougher spots vs PHI and TOR. Coming off a strong outing vs the Dodgers, I like Schwellenbach in this spot vs Cinci. Overall, he’s over this line in 12/L15. Cinci has been running poor lately, with a 26% K% and a .701 OPS / 93 wRC+ vs righties the L2 weeks. Will start 5-6 righties too, which is Schwellenbach’s better split (32% K%, .257 wOBA).

J.Junis u4.5 Ks-140

Featured Insight
Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the Braves this season -- best in MLB. Reds hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 36% this season -- third worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Reds have allowed just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season -- fourth lowest in MLB (76 games). The Braves have scored just 3.9 runs per game at home this season -- fourth lowest in MLB (75 games).

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The Reds are just 36-45 (.444) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.

Amed Rosario has an OPS of just .701 since the 2022 season -- sixth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Raisel Iglesias has allowed an OPS of just .561 (711 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna has 100 home runs since the 2022 season -- ninth most in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Nick Martinez has allowed 40 home runs since the 2022 season -- tied for third most among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

30 of Jakob Junis' breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor since the 2022 season -- most among NL Relievers; League Avg: nan -- 100th Percentile.

Jakob Junis has a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (160/214) this season -- highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 62% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 17th	ATL	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 9	CIN +124
Sep 15th	@MIN	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 9	MIN +150
Sep 14th	@MIN	W 11-1	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CIN +125
Sep 14th	@MIN	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CIN +195
Sep 12th	@STL	L 1-6	+1.5 L	U 7.5	STL +125

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Schwellenbach, P	94	6	5	1
LD.Lee, P	7	1	1	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	12	1	2	0
LA.Bummer, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	1-5	1	1	1
2J.Soler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
2E.White, RF	1-2	1	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	3-4	2	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	1	0	1
5R.Laureano, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6W.Merrifield, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
7S.Murphy, C	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	0-4	1	0	0
9G.Urshela, 3B	2-4	0	0	3

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Junis, P	70	6	6	1
RT.Santillan, P	32	1	2	3
LJ.Wilson, P	15	0.1	0	2
RC.Legumina, P	36	1.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-4	0	0
2E.De La Cruz, SS	1-4	1	0
3T.Stephenson, C	0-2	0	0
4S.Steer, LF	0-4	0	0
5T.Friedl, CF	1-3	0	1
6T.France, 1B	1-4	0	0
7S.Espinal, 3B	0-3	0	0
8J.Fraley, RF	0-1	0	0
8A.Rosario, PH	0-2	0	0
8A.Rosario, RF	0-2	0	0
9N.Marte, DH	1-3	0	0