Brewers vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 22, 2024

Brewers at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Milwaukee Brewers

3-4

0 - 1

Miami Marlins

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			5.00	3-6
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 3-4	-1.5+130	o7-120	-130
Marlins 4-3	+1.5-155	u7-101	+110

Wednesday 10:40 p.m.

May 22, 2024

loanDepot parkMiami

MIA +105 (F5)

1.05u

J.Luzardo u17.5 Outs-120

1.2u

I see this as such a tough spot for Luzardo. He relies on his chase rate, because his zone% (41%) ranks 100th/140 pitchers with 30+ innings. The Brewers as a team have the lowest chase rate, and the highest walk rate vs lefties. Luzardo is under this line in 5/7 starts, and opposing lefties and 5/9 opposing lefties are under vs MIL. Six brewers in the lineup today have an above avg pitches per PA (Luzardo is 16th at 4.07).

Under 7-120

MIL -130

F.Peralta u6.5 Ks+114

This one has value up to about -110. 13/15 righty starters under this line vs MIA, incl 11/L11. And each of the L10 at 4 or under. Overall, only has a 26% K% vs power pitchers this season. Peralta under in each of his L3 road starts as is.

MIL -130

1.3u

Featured Insight
The Brewers have scored three or more runs in an inning 37 times (9%) this season -- highest in MLB. Marlins have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this season -- highest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 34-26 (.567) after a road win since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.

The Brewers are 33-3 (.917) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Marlins are just 61-16 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Willy Adames struck out in 27% of PA's in the 2022 season -- 12th highest in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Jesus Luzardo had a strikeout rate of 30% in the 2022 season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Tim Anderson has an OPS of just .473 this season -- 14th worst among hitters with at least 67 total PA's-- fourth Percentile. Bryan Hudson has allowed an OPS of just .463 (98 PAs) this season -- 12th best among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 40% (51/129) against Freddy Peralta this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .318 (100 Total Bases / 314 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 -- 93rd Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 33% (116 SO in 350 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	5-2	5-2	N/A	0-1	5-1
Brewers	3-4	3-1	0-3	3-1	0-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	4-3	4-3	N/A	0-1	4-2
Brewers	3-4	1-3	2-1	1-3	2-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	4-3	4-3	N/A	1-0	3-3
Brewers	3-4	3-1	0-3	3-1	0-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 21st	MIL	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 8	MIL +114
May 20th	MIL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIA +121
May 19th	NYM	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYM +120
May 18th	NYM	W 10-9	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA +105
May 17th	NYM	W 8-0	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA +105

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Tobias Myers
P
Myers is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
P
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Sanchez
OF
Sanchez is out with side
Out
Edward Cabrera
P
Cabrera is out with finger
Out
Ryan Weathers
P
Weathers is out with arm
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out
Connor Norby
IF
Norby is out with oblique
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P		98	7	7	1
RE.Peguero, P		6	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Monasterio, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Yelich, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-3	0	0	0
5J.Ortiz, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Sanchez, DH	2-3	0	0	0
6J.Wiemer, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6J.Wiemer, DH	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Chourio, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Miller, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P		100	8	4	0
LT.Scott, P		16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
2B.De La Cruz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Bell, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
3E.Rivera, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-2	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6N.Gordon, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7T.Anderson, SS	1-3	0	0	0
8O.Lopez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	0	0	0