Brewers vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2023

Brewers at Mets

11:10 pm • MLB Network

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

5 - 2

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Senga			2.98	12-7
W.Miley			3.14	9-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	+1.5-158	o8.5-110	+130
Mets 7-6	-1.5+130	u8.5-110	-155

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

June 28, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

Under 8.5+100

NYM -154

1.54u

W. Miley u3.5 Ks-115

0.87u

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+390

0.1u

P.Alonso o1.5 Total Bases+135

0.5u

K.Senga u17.5 Outs-115

This is a play on Senga pitching on 4-days rest. We only have a one game sample (2.2 innings, 4 R, 5 BB vs TOR), which doesn’t mean much. But Senga does come from a league where he rarely pitched on 4 days. Buck really let Peterson go today, potentially to save the bullpen in case it’s needed for Senga. I’d be surprised if Senga was allowed past 90 pitches max. And yes, even though they put up a dud vs Peterson, I’ll trust MIL’s offense. They work the count (2nd highest pitches per PA) - and that’s skewed towards their lefty platoon (Tellez and Winker). Senga throws 3.96 pitches per PA as is.

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The Brewers are 10-7 (.588) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Mets are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Mets are just 7-4 (.636) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .778.

The Brewers are 6-0 (1.000) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .778.

Willy Adames has an OPS of just .387 with two strikes this season -- third worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Kodai Senga has allowed an OPS of just .386 (171 PAs) with two strikes this season -- 11th best among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (425/759) since the 2021 season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 34% -- 99th Percentile.

Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 58% (227/393) in two strike counts this season -- 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- second Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 27th	MIL	W 7-2	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -148
Jun 26th	MIL	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIL -177
Jun 25th	@PHI	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PHI +165
Jun 24th	@PHI	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 9.5	NYM -127
Jun 23rd	@PHI	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 9.5	PHI -105

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LW.Miley, P	74	4	3	2
RB.Wilson, P	21	1.2	1	0
LH.Milner, P	5	0.1	1	0
RE.Peguero, P	9	1	0	0
RJ.Payamps, P	17	1	1	0
RD.Williams, P	13	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	3-5	1	2
2W.Contreras, C	1-5	0	0
3R.Tellez, 1B	0-4	0	0
3L.Urias, PH	0-1	0	0
3L.Urias, 2B	0-1	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	0-4	1	0
5J.Winker, DH	2-5	0	2
6O.Miller, 2B	1-3	1	0
6O.Miller, 1B	1-3	1	0
7B.Anderson, 3B	1-4	1	0
8B.Perkins, RF	1-3	1	1
9J.Wiemer, CF	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Senga, P	102	5	8	2
RG.Hartwig, P	21	1.1	1	1
LB.Raley, P	13	1	1	0
RA.Ottavino, P	24	0.2	1	2
LT.McFarland, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	1-4	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-3	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Pham, LF	3-3	1	1	1
6F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	1
7B.Baty, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8M.Canha, DH	1-3	0	0	0
8D.Vogelbach, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9D.Mendick, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
9J.McNeil, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9J.McNeil, 2B	0-2	0	0	0