Brewers vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 26, 2023

Brewers at Mets

11:10 pm • MLB Network

Milwaukee Brewers

6-7

2 - 1

New York Mets

4-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Verlander			3.31	7-3
C.Rea			4.55	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 6-7	+1.5-130	o8.5-114	+147
Mets 4-8	-1.5+107	u8.5-106	-177

Monday 11:10 p.m.

June 26, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

Under 8.5-104

NYM -0.5 (F5)-130

0.77u

@roloheaux Tail

NYM -175

1.75u

NYM -1.5+110

0.5u

NYM -175

1.75u

-164 at Wynn

C.Rea o3.5 Ks-160

C.Rea o3.5 Ks-130

1.3u

Projecting -175

NYM -0.5 (F5)-130

0.77u

J.Verlander o6.5 Ks+102

$50.00

MIL +152

1.22u

Available at FanDuel. How you view this one depends on whether you believe Justin Verlander is fixed. He has had some really impressive starts recently, and most of them have come at home. But even in those games, he was still letting up a lot of hard contact. Verlander's hard-hit rate allowed this year is 44.3%, a concerning number even against a middling offense. Even if we zero in on just his home games, Verlander's strikeout rate is just 22.7%, and it's 20.5% overall. A low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate is typically a tough combo to overcome, and Verlander's 4.50 ERA reflects that. Even though the Mets hold the offensive edge and the starting-pitching edge, my model still puts the Brewers' win odds at 43.7%, up from 39.7% implied. I'm not overly fond of them as a team, but I think the market allows us to buy them here.

J.Verlander u18.5 Outs-180

0.22u

MIL +165

0.83u

Bet to +150

Over 8-118

0.59u

Bet to -120 or 8.5 (+100)

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The Mets are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.

Rowdy Tellez batted just .219 last season -- tied for 10th worst in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Left handed batters hit just .163 (51-for-312) against Justin Verlander last season -- tied for second best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Christian Yelich is slugging just .283 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Justin Verlander has allowed a SLG of just .285 on his breaking pitches since last season -- eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .552 (881 PA's) since last season -- 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .710 -- 98th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .253 (98 Total Bases / 387 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: .395 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 25th	@PHI	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PHI +165
Jun 24th	@PHI	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 9.5	NYM -127
Jun 23rd	@PHI	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 9.5	PHI -105
Jun 21st	@HOU	L 8-10	+1.5 L	O 8.5	HOU +117
Jun 21st	@HOU	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	HOU +115

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is questionable with back
Questionable

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Rea, P	86	6.1	3	1
LH.Milner, P	15	1.1	1	0
RE.Peguero, P	6	0.1	1	0
RD.Williams, P	6	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Tellez, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5O.Miller, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
6J.Winker, DH	1-4	1	0	0
7L.Urias, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
8B.Perkins, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Wiemer, CF	1-4	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Verlander, P	100	5	5	0
RD.Smith, P	24	1	1	2
RA.Ottavino, P	23	1	1	0
LB.Raley, P	23	1	1	0
RD.Robertson, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-4	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	1-4	1	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-3	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0
5D.Vogelbach, DH	0-4	0	0
6T.Pham, LF	0-3	0	0
7J.McNeil, 2B	0-3	0	0
8F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0
9B.Baty, 3B	1-1	0	0
9M.Canha, PH	0-1	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 3B	0-0	0	0