Guardians vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2023

Guardians at Yankees

11:05 pm • YES

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

3 - 2

New York Yankees

8-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.German			4.56	5-7
C.Quantrill			5.24	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 4-6	+1.5-188	o8.5-105	+108
Yankees 8-6	-1.5+150	u8.5-115	-130

Monday 11:05 p.m.

May 01, 2023

Yankee StadiumBronx

NYY -129

1.29u

NYY -130

D.German o17.5 Outs-115

German is over this line in each of his last 3, and the Yankees are desperate for some length from a starter to save the tired bullpen. German should have a long leash today. German’s weakness is with his fastball, but CLE ranks 27th in wRC+ vs the 4-seamer. In general, CLE is a below average offense vs RHP (23rd in wRC+, 24th in OPS). German did pitch against CLE earlier this season and struggled with walks, but he’s historically a strike thrower (66% this season, 67% last season - both within the upper 33rd percentile amongst starters).

NYY -130

1.3u

CLE +120

0.6u

Need +120 or better

Under 8.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

Under 8.5-110

Project 7.5; Both lineups poor wRC+ v right hand pitching (89, 92). Both bullpens sub-3 ERA

Our Staff's Best MLB Bets for Monday
Action Network Staff•
May 1, 2023 UTC

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The Guardians are 4-2 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .298.

Gleyber Torres has an OPS of .793 with two strikes this season -- seventh best in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of .763 (52 PAs) with two strikes this season -- eighth worst among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP-- sixth Percentile.

Aaron Judge is slugging .626 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Cal Quantrill has thrown his slider 35% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 90th Percentile.

18 of Cal Quantrill's 64 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 12% -- 97th Percentile.

32 of Cal Quantrill's 107 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the 2021 season -- 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 12% -- 96th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	80-82	35-46	45-36	62-72	18-9
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	87-69-6	45-33-3	42-36-3	76-54-4	11-14-2
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	94-68	44-37	50-31	76-58	18-9
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	@TEX	L 2-15	-1.5 L	O 8.5	TEX -125
Apr 29th	@TEX	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8	TEX +138
Apr 29th	@TEX	L 2-5	+1.5 L	U 7	TEX +190
Apr 28th	@TEX	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	NYY -184
Apr 26th	@MIN	W 12-6	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYY -112

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

JT Brubaker
P
Brubaker is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Quantrill, P	97	7.1	2	2
RE.De Los Santos, P	1	0.2	0	0
RE.Clase, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	1-4	1	0
2A.Rosario, SS	1-4	1	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	1	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-4	0	2
4G.Arias, PR	0-0	0	0
4G.Arias, 1B	0-0	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	0-2	0	0
5D.Fry, PR	0-0	0	0
5D.Fry, DH	0-0	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0
7M. Zunino, C	0-3	0	1
8W.Brennan, RF	0-3	0	0
8O. González, PH	0-1	0	0
8O. González, RF	0-1	0	0
9M.Straw, CF	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.German, P	88	8.1	6	1
RC.Holmes, P	10	0	0	0
LW.Peralta, P	19	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	1-4	0	0	0
2A.Rizzo, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
3G.Torres, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4D.LeMahieu, 3B	2-4	0	0	1
5W.Calhoun, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5A. Hicks, LF	0-1	0	0	0
6O.Peraza, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
7I.Kiner-Falefa, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Cabrera, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Cabrera, RF	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Trevino, C	1-3	1	1	1