Marlins vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - September 11, 2024

Marlins at Pirates

4:35 pm • SportsNet PT
1 - 3
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Bailey Falter logoB.FalterPittsburgh Pirates logo4.438-9
Jonathan Bermudez logoJ.BermudezMiami Marlins logo8.100-1

Marlins at Pirates Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins
0-0
+1.5
+1.5-155
o9-105
+130
Pirates
0-0
u8.5
-1.5+130
u9-115
-155
location pinWednesday 4:35 p.m.
September 11, 2024
PNC ParkPittsburgh
Marlins vs. Pirates Expert Picks
Boomer Betz
Boomer Betz
102d ago
Last 30d: 145-154-9 (-3.8u)
Under 9-114
0.44u
Picks  Office
Picks Office
102d ago
Last 30d: 121-111-6 (+0.9u)
Over 8.5-125
1u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Starting with Bermudez, who will serve as an opener, his stats offer little confidence for holding down opposing hitters. Through just two appearances this season, he’s carrying a 5.79 ERA and an alarming 1.93 WHIP, which speaks to his inability to keep batters off the bases. He was designated for assignment earlier in the year, going unclaimed—a testament to his overall poor performance. His underlying metrics don't suggest improvement either, as Bermudez ranks in the bottom half of the league in critical categories like xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. These are the metrics that speak directly to how hard he's being hit and his inability to miss bats. Backing him is a bullpen that doesn’t fare much better, ranking 22nd in team ERA, a clear sign of vulnerability when it comes to stopping runs late in the game. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter isn’t in much better shape. While his 4.45 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 24 starts may seem serviceable at first glance, his advanced analytics paint a far more troubling picture. His 5.10 xERA indicates that he's been somewhat fortunate in terms of runs allowed, while his bottom-third rankings in key categories such as xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate suggest continued regression is highly likely. He’s given up four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, and his 6.85 ERA in that span demonstrates a clear trend of poor performance. Adding to the concern for Pittsburgh, their bullpen is one of the worst in the league, ranking in the bottom six in both ERA and xFIP, meaning there will be little relief if Falter struggles early. Both Bermudez and Falter are prone to allowing hard contact, and with each lineup having solid metrics against these pitchers, the Over is heavily favored. The Marlins’ lineup has hit .258 with a .540 xSLG in 14 plate appearances against Falter, further indicating their ability to generate offense in this game.
YBK Picks.com
102d ago
Last 30d: 39-47-3 (-22.9u)
MIA +1-115
2u
Prop Hunter
Prop Hunter
102d ago
Last 30d: 16-21-0 (+3.1u)
J.Burger o1.5 Total Bases-120
1.2u
J.Burger o0.5 HR+335
0.25u
Moneyline Hacks
Moneyline Hacks
102d ago
Last 30d: 52-49-1 (+12.8u)
MIA +131
3u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
102d ago
Last 30d: 29-50-0 (-6.0u)
Under 9-110
0.45u
Flat to 8.5 (-105)
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
102d ago
Last 30d: 189-213-7 (+13.4u)
PIT u2.5 Team Total (F5)-114
1.71u

PRO Insights

Pirates logo

Pirates

PIT Insights
  • Pirates logoThe Pirates are batting .296 with RISP over the last two weeks -- fourth best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .344 (21-for-61) against Marlins RPs with RISP over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.
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Marlins vs. Pirates Previews & Analysis

  • Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card article feature image

    Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Wednesday MLB Betting Card

    Sean Zerillo
    Sep 11, 2024 UTC
  • Marlins vs. Pirates: Bet the Over/Under article feature image

    Marlins vs. Pirates: Bet the Over/Under

    Tony Sartori
    Sep 11, 2024 UTC
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Marlins vs. Pirates Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Marlins vs. Pirates Public Betting Percentages

12%

Bets%

88%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
88-7443-3845-3629-3459-39
Marlins
77-8535-4642-392-1575-70

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Pirates
77-81-440-38-337-43-131-30-246-50-2
Marlins
85-66-1153-20-832-46-311-5-174-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Pirates
76-8639-4237-4435-2841-57
Marlins
62-10030-5132-494-1358-87

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 10thMIAW 6-4-1.5 WO 8.5PIT -167
Sep 9thMIAW 3-2-1.5 LU 8PIT -276
Sep 8thWSHW 7-3-1.5 WO 8.5PIT -157
Sep 7thWSHL 6-8-1.5 LO 7.5WSH -148
Sep 7thWSHL 3-5-1.5 LU 8.5WSH -130

Marlins vs. Pirates Injury Updates

Marlins Injuries

  • Sandy Alcantara
    P

    Alcantara is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Jesus Luzardo
    P

    Luzardo is out with back

    Out

  • Max Meyer
    P

    Meyer is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Eury Perez
    P

    Perez is out with elbow

    Out

Pirates Injuries

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes
    IF

    Hayes is out with back

    Out

  • Johan Oviedo
    P

    Oviedo is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Endy Rodriguez
    C

    Rodriguez is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

Marlins vs. Pirates Box Score
Marlins Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Jonathan Bermudez logoLJ.Bermudez, P46203
John McMillon logoRJ.McMillon, P2000
Xzavion Curry logoRX.Curry, P594.230
Lake Bachar logoRL.Bachar, P10.100
Declan Cronin logoRD.Cronin, P7100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Connor Norby logo1C.Norby, 3B0-4000
Otto Lopez logo2O.Lopez, SS1-3100
Otto Lopez logo2O.Lopez, 2B1-3100
Jake Burger logo3J.Burger, DH0-4000
Jonah Bride logo4J.Bride, 1B1-3000
Jesus Sanchez logo5J.Sanchez, RF0-4000
Cristian Pache logo6C.Pache, CF2-4001
Kyle Stowers logo7K.Stowers, LF1-3000
Javier Sanoja logo8J.Sanoja, 2B0-2000
Xavier Edwards logo8X.Edwards, PH0-2000
Xavier Edwards logo8X.Edwards, SS0-2000
Nick Fortes logo9N.Fortes, C0-2000
Griffin Conine logo9G.Conine, PH0-0000
Jhonny Pereda logo9J.Pereda, C0-0000
Pirates Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Bailey Falter logoLB.Falter, P937.150
Colin Holderman logoRC.Holderman, P130.200
David Bednar logoRD.Bednar, P140.220
Jalen Beeks logoLJ.Beeks, P70.100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Isiah Kiner-Falefa logo1I.Kiner-Falefa, SS0-4000
Bryan Reynolds logo2B.Reynolds, DH2-3100
Joey Bart logo3J.Bart, C0-3100
Nick Gonzales logo4N.Gonzales, 2B2-4000
Oneil Cruz logo5O.Cruz, CF0-3001
Connor Joe logo6C.Joe, 1B0-3001
Bryan De La Cruz logo7B.De La Cruz, RF0-3000
Billy Cook logo8B.Cook, LF0-3000
Jared Triolo logo9J.Triolo, 3B2-3111

Marlins vs. Pirates Odds Comparison

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Marlins at Pirates Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Marlins
0-0
o3.5-142
u3.5+110
Pirates
0-0
o4.5-120
u4.5-110