Marlins vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 26, 2024

Marlins at Twins

11:40 pm • BSFL

Miami Marlins

62-100

8 - 6

Minnesota Twins

82-80

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Festa			4.90	2-6
V.Bellozo			3.67	3-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 62-100	+1.5	+1.5+105	o8.5-118	+212
Twins 82-80	u8.5	-1.5-125	u8.5-102	-262

Thursday 11:40 p.m.

September 26, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

D.Festa u5.5 Ks-140

Under in 4/L8, but this is more situational. Twins are clinging to their last hopes in the playoff chase (down 2 in the loss column to both the tigers and royals) - this is virtually a must win with both teams already winning today. Marlins are hitting well lately - if they push festa to get enough guys on base early, he’ll get pulled.

V.Bellozo u3.5 Earned Runs-135

0.74u

V. Bellozo ⬇️ 3.5 Earned Runs (+103 @ DraftKings and -135 @ 365) I'm breaking this up a half unit each to use my DK boost here to equal a full unit in this play. THE BAT X 📽️: 3.01 ER's Bellozo has been decent this year with a 3.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The underlying stats don't look very good, but this is a high line in what looks like a good matchup. MIN ranks 29th in OPS vs RHP over L30 and Bellozo has given up 3 runs or fewer in his L4 starts. MIN also hasn't seen him yet, which is great, and he's been better on the road: Home ERA: 4.39 Road ERA: 3.41 Home wOBA against: .359 Road wOBA against: .322 We've also gotten to the point in the season where SP's may get shorter leashes to preserve arms for next season. We could see his start cut shorter than normal.

MIN -250

Under 8.5+100

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Under 8.5+105

0.5u

Bet to -112

Featured Insight
Marlins hitters have a groundball rate of 50% this season -- highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins this season -- third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Twins are batting .292 with RISP over the last two weeks -- fifth best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .353 (12-for-34) against Marlins RPs with RISP over the last two weeks -- worst in MLB.

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MLB Player Props for Thursday
Alex Hinton•
Sep 26, 2024 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 25th	MIA	W 8-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIN -197
Sep 24th	MIA	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	MIA -254
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 8	BOS -121
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 1-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS -143
Sep 20th	@BOS	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	MIN -120

Sixto Sanchez
P
Sanchez is out with shoulder
Out
Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Max Kepler
OF
Kepler is out with knee
Out
Anthony DeSclafani
P
DeSclafani is out with arm
Out
Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RV.Bellozo, P	74	5	2	1
RL.Bachar, P	8	1.1	0	0
LA.Veneziano, P	13	0.1	1	0
RA.Bender, P	15	0.2	2	1
RJ.Tinoco, P	39	1.2	1	1
RM.Petersen, P	19	1	0	0
RA.Maldonado, P	22	2	0	0
RD.McCaughan, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1X.Edwards, SS	2-4	3	1
2C.Norby, 3B	0-6	0	0
3J.Burger, DH	2-5	0	2
3G.Conine, PR	1-2	1	2
3G.Conine, DH	1-2	1	2
4J.Sanchez, RF	3-6	0	0
5J.Bride, 1B	2-5	0	1
6K.Stowers, LF	0-2	0	0
6D.Myers, PH	0-4	1	0
6D.Myers, LF	0-4	1	0
7D.Hill, CF	0-5	0	0
7J.Sanoja, CF	0-1	0	0
8O.Lopez, 2B	2-6	2	1
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	1	0
9V.Brujan, PR	0-0	0	0
9J.Pereda, C	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Festa, P	72	4.1	5	3
LC.Thielbar, P	11	0.1	0	0
RM.Tonkin, P	18	1.1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	13	1	2	0
RJ.Duran, P	31	2	4	0
RC.Sands, P	17	1	2	0
RJ.Alcala, P	17	1	1	0
RS.Blewett, P	39	1.2	3	2
RJ.Topa, P	5	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Buxton, CF	1-7	0	0	1
2C.Correa, SS	3-5	1	1	1
3T.Larnach, RF	2-6	0	0	0
4R.Lewis, DH	0-5	2	0	0
5C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
6K.Farmer, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
6B.Lee, PH	1-2	0	0	2
6B.Lee, 2B	1-2	0	0	2
7R.Jeffers, C	2-6	1	0	0
8W.Castro, 3B	0-5	1	0	1
9A.Martin, LF	2-6	0	0	0