Phillies vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - July 5, 2024

Phillies at Braves

11:20 pm • Apple TV+

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

8 - 6

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			3.25	11-10
A.Nola			3.57	14-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 1-3	+1.5-185	o7.5+100	+120
Braves 0-2	-1.5+154	u7.5-120	-142

Friday 11:20 p.m.

July 05, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

A.Riley o1.5 Total Bases+100

Over 7.5-110

PHI +118

3.54u

A.Bohm o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

Bohm HR derby you say?

PHI +115

1.15u

Don’t mind my religion

PHI +117

2.34u

PHI +120

1.8u

Featured Insight
Phillies have won 59% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth best in MLB. Braves have won just 39% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- tied for second worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves have won 61% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- tied for second best in MLB. Phillies have won just 41% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.

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Phillies vs. Braves: How to Bet Nola-Fried in F5
John Feltman•
Jul 5, 2024 UTC

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The Braves are 17-79 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Braves are 23-14 (.622) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Phillies are 40-5 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Marcell Ozuna is batting .455 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Logan Webb has a strike rate of 69% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Nick Castellanos has struck out in 25% of PA's since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 14th Percentile. A.J. Minter has a strikeout rate of 32% since the 2022 season -- tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (308/865) when he's behind in the count since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 10% -- 99th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .370 (135 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .645 -- 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .234 (725 PA's) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 -- 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (58 Total Bases / 272 ABs) against right-handed batters this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 4th	SF	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SF -130
Jul 3rd	SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -209
Jul 2nd	SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -198
Jun 30th	PIT	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9	PIT -198
Jun 29th	PIT	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -142

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	103	6	8	3
RO.Kerkering, P	20	1	2	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	24	1	0	3
RJ.Hoffman, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Stott, DH	1-4	2	0	1
2T.Turner, SS	2-5	2	2	4
3A.Bohm, 1B	3-5	0	0	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	2-5	0	0	0
5E.Sosa, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
6W.Merrifield, 2B	1-5	1	0	0
7R.Marchan, C	2-5	0	0	0
8J.Rojas, CF	2-5	2	0	1
9C.Pache, LF	1-5	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P	103	6	4	5
RJ.Chavez, P	33	2	3	1
LD.Lee, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	3-4	3	1	1
3A.Riley, 3B	1-3	2	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	3
6T.d'Arnaud, C	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9E.White, LF	0-4	0	0	0