Pirates vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - March 28, 2025

O. Cruz ⬆️ 1.5 HRR (-115 @ MGM)(PIT Pirates) THE BAT X 📽️: 2.65 HRR As y'all know I'm so high on this kid this year. He hits the ball so hard and gets himself a nice matchup today. MIA is rolling out Connor Gillespie, who worked in a limited capacity as an RP last season for CLE. He was solid in Spring, but allowed a pair of homers, a double and a triple. His statcast numbers from (only 8 IP) last season are troubling. He was hit hard and barreled often with a low FB velo (92.2) without extension. Not a good recipe against a guy that is in the 99th percentile in hard hit rate and barrel rate. Gillipsie primarily throws FB, CH and CU to left-handed hitters. He likes to elevate the FB, which Cruz excels at hitting. He hit both the FB and CU well last season with a .598 and .643 SLG. He hit the changeup well enough with a .274 average as well. Just really like the matchup here for Cruz.

Have Keller projected at 4.92 strikeouts. Just not a big enough K guy to have his prop this high against a non-outlier opponent.

4.06% ev pinny line at -166

Oneil vs RHP in 2024: .271 BA, .344 OBP, .189 ISO Oneil vs RHP in ST: .241 BA, ,410 OBP, .311 ISO He mashes righties and I love this matchup for him. Gillispie had a great ST but got rocked in his last outing vs the Mets allowing 8 Hits, 6 ERs, & 2 HRs in 4.1 IP. He’s allowed a high barrel% throughout his short career and throws a lot of 4-seams/cutters to LHB, which Oneil will be able to take advantage of. Despite a mediocre Opening Day for Cruz, I think he bounces back in this matchup