Rays vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - June 17, 2023

Rays at Padres

1:40 am • SDPA

Tampa Bay Rays

8-9

6 - 2

San Diego Padres

6-14

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 8-9	-1.5+155	o8+100	-102
Padres 6-14	+1.5-188	u8-115	-116

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

June 17, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Under 7.5+100

TB -104

$100.00

2u hammer time. Was always the Rays (hopefully)

SD -110

SD +180

$56.00

Darvish to record a win

SD -110

1.1u

SD -102

Available at FanDuel. I've got the Padres as the firm-ish favorites in this game, allowing me to buy into their moneyline at 50.5% implied odds. The Rays' big bugaboo is still their bullpen, and I think that's why my model has been telling me to bet against them quite often recently. The Padres don't have a lights-out bullpen, either, but starter Yu Darvish has much better peripherals than results recently. In 7 starts with his sinker usage up, he has a 3.76 SIERA, and he has maintained a respectable 25.3% strikeout rate. This isn't a fun team to bet against, but the game's in San Diego, and the Padres are no slouches, themselves. I feel like the two teams are pretty neutral tonight, allowing me to lay -102 on the home team.

Y.Darvish u18.5 Outs-183

0.22u

SD +108

0.4u

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The Rays are 20-5 (.800) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Juan Soto has an OPS of .866 since last season -- 10th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Robert Stephenson has allowed an OPS of .787 (326 PAs) since last season -- 15th worst among qualified RPs-- seventh Percentile.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a swing rate of 50% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among hitters with at least 100 total PA's-- 100th Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .242 (8-for-33) against Shane McClanahan on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- fourth best among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 16th	CLE	L 6-8	-1.5 L	O 9	CLE -125
Jun 15th	CLE	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	SD -168
Jun 14th	CLE	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	SD -168
Jun 11th	@COL	L 4-5	-1.5 L	U 11.5	COL -200
Jun 10th	@COL	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 12.5	SD -142

Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.McClanahan, P	94	6.2	5	1
RZ.Littell, P	21	1.1	1	1
RS.Armstrong, P	20	0.1	0	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	2	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	0-5	1	0	0
2W. Franco, SS	1-5	0	0	0
3L.Raley, RF	2-4	2	0	0
4R.Arozarena, LF	2-4	1	1	4
5I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
6J.Lowe, DH	0-3	0	0	0
7C.Bethancourt, C	1-4	0	0	0
8T.Walls, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
9J.Siri, CF	1-3	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	88	5	5	6
LR.Kerr, P	17	1	2	0
RB.Honeywell, P	32	2	2	0
RN.Crismatt, P	20	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	2-4	1	0	0
2J.Soto, LF	0-3	0	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4X.Bogaerts, SS	1-3	0	0	1
5G.Sanchez, C	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
7N. Cruz, DH	1-3	1	1	1
8H.Kim, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9R. Odor, PH	0-0	0	0	0