Red Sox vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 22, 2024

Red Sox at Rays

10:50 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

8-6

8 - 5

Tampa Bay Rays

7-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Pepiot			3.60	8-8
B.Bello			4.49	14-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 8-6	-1.5	+1.5-180	o7.5-115	+123
Rays 7-7	u8	-1.5+150	u7.5-105	-146

Wednesday 10:50 p.m.

May 22, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

TB -1+105

BOS +130

1.3u

B.Bello u16.5 Outs-125

1.25u

Rays put out the ideal lineup today with 5 lefties - Bello has really struggled in general vs lefties: .818 OPS, 7.6% BB%, and half the soft contact rate he has vs righties. And as is, he’s struggled mightily with pitch efficiency at 4.18 (would be 5th highest if he qualified). Plus, the 8 Rays in today’s lineup that have faced Bello are 21 of 46 off him. He’s only pushed past this line once in 7 starts. Sox pen in good shape + off day tomorrow.

TB -135

$2750.00

B.Lowe o0.5 RBI+140

0.25u

TB o3.5 Team Total-145

0.34u

TB -130

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

TB -120

0.6u

Bet to -132

Under 8-110

0.55u

Featured Insight
Red Sox have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last week -- second highest in MLB. Rays have struck out 28% over the last week -- tied for second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Rays are batting .276 with RISP since last season -- third best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .275 (251-for-913) against Red Sox RPs with RISP since last season -- fifth worst in MLB.

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The Red Sox are 152-12 (.927) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.

The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Red Sox are just 43-55 (.439) after a home loss since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.

Dominic Smith has an OPS of just .671 since last season -- sixth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Pete Fairbanks has allowed an OPS of just .514 (232 PAs) since last season -- fourth best among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Tyler O'Neill has struck out in 32% of PA's this season -- tied for 14th highest in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Ryan Pepiot has a strikeout rate of 29% this season -- tied for 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (64/390) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season -- tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (46/313) against Brayan Bello since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .579 (22 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season -- tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .308 -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 21st	BOS	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 8	BOS -139
May 20th	BOS	L 0-5	-1.5 L	U 7	BOS -125
May 19th	@TOR	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 8	TOR -102
May 18th	@TOR	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	TB +120
May 17th	@TOR	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TB +136

Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Bello, P	94	6	6	3
LC.Booser, P	14	0.1	0	1
RG.Weissert, P	13	0.2	1	0
RZ.Kelly, P	33	2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	1-5	1	0	1
2W.Abreu, RF	2-4	1	1	2
3C.Wong, C	1-5	1	0	2
4R.Devers, 3B	0-4	1	0	0
5R.Refsnyder, DH	2-4	0	0	1
6D.Smith, 1B	1-3	0	0	1
7D.Hamilton, SS	0-3	1	0	0
8V.Grissom, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
9C.Rafaela, CF	1-4	2	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Pepiot, P	66	4	3	3
LR.Lovelady, P	20	0.2	1	2
RK.Kelly, P	25	1.1	1	2
RP.Maton, P	11	1	2	0
RS.Armstrong, P	8	1	0	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	1-5	1	1	2
2J.Lowe, CF	0-1	0	0	0
2J.DeLuca, PH	1-4	0	0	1
2J.DeLuca, CF	1-4	0	0	1
3R.Arozarena, LF	1-4	0	0	0
4B.Lowe, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5I.Paredes, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
6J.Aranda, DH	1-3	1	0	0
7J.Caballero, SS	2-4	1	0	2
8R.Palacios, RF	2-3	1	0	0
9B.Rortvedt, C	0-3	0	0	0