Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 11, 2024

Twins at Blue Jays

7:07 pm • SN1

Minnesota Twins

6-8

8 - 10

Toronto Blue Jays

11-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Gausman			3.83	14-11
S.Woods Richardson			4.18	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 6-8	+1.5-170	o8-113	+124
Blue Jays 11-6	-1.5+142	u8-107	-148

Saturday 7:07 p.m.

May 11, 2024

Rogers CentreToronto

TOR +2.5 (Live)-110

D.Jansen o1.5 Total Bases+115

1.15u

Projection leans to the over and matchup advantage and +ev bet with devig odds of -102 giving value to this number

MIN +130

TOR -145

0.34u

Flat to -145

MIN +135

Gausman is lucky his daddy can’t beat him anymore

MIN +141

Featured Insight
Twins hitters have an OPS of .832 over the last two weeks -- second best in MLB. Blue Jays RPs have allowed an OPS of .847 (175 PAs) over the last two weeks -- second worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Blue Jays have a strikeout rate of 24% vs left-handed batters since last season -- fourth highest in MLB. Twins left-handed hitters have struck out 28% against RHP since last season -- highest in MLB.

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3 MLB Player Props for Saturday
Doug Ziefel•
May 11, 2024 UTC

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The Twins are 77-14 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

37% of Ryan Jeffers strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- tied for 11th highest among hitters with at least 538 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. 33% of Tim Mayza strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Simeon Woods Richardson allowed an OPS of just .153 (20 PA's) -- tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .637 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .053 (1-for-19) against Simeon Woods Richardson -- tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .224 -- 97th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 36% (535/1,488) against Kevin Gausman since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 28% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 10th	MIN	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7	MIN -117
May 8th	@PHI	W 5-3	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +142
May 7th	@PHI	L 1-10	-1.5 L	O 8	PHI -102
May 5th	@WSH	L 8-11	-1.5 L	O 8.5	WSH -106
May 4th	@WSH	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	TOR -175

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Woods Richardson, P	91	4.1	2	5
RC.Sands, P	28	1.1	1	3
LS.Okert, P	11	0.1	0	0
RJ.Jackson, P	10	0.1	0	2
LC.Thielbar, P	25	0.1	0	0
RJ.Staumont, P	21	1.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
2T.Larnach, DH	2-5	0	0	1
3R.Jeffers, C	1-5	1	1	1
4M.Kepler, RF	2-5	1	0	0
5C.Correa, SS	2-4	2	0	1
6A.Kirilloff, LF	1-4	0	0	1
7W.Castro, CF	1-4	1	0	0
8C.Santana, 1B	2-4	2	1	3
9J.Miranda, 3B	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Gausman, P	86	3	6	6
RZ.Pop, P	16	1	0	1
RT.Richards, P	18	2	2	0
RE.Swanson, P	9	1	1	0
RY.Garcia, P	9	1	1	0
RJ.Romano, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1D.Schneider, LF	3-4	3	1	2
1K.Kiermaier, CF	0-0	0	0	0
2D.Varsho, CF	1-3	1	0	1
2D.Varsho, LF	1-3	1	0	1
3V.Guerrero, 1B	4-5	1	0	3
4J.Turner, DH	0-5	0	0	0
5D.Jansen, C	3-5	2	1	2
6B.Bichette, SS	1-5	1	1	1
7I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	2-5	1	0	0
8C.Biggio, RF	1-2	1	0	0
8G.Springer, PH	0-0	0	0	0
8G.Springer, RF	0-0	0	0	0
9E.Clement, 3B	1-4	0	0	1