Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2024

Twins at Blue Jays

11:07 pm • BSN

Minnesota Twins

6-8

3 - 2

Toronto Blue Jays

11-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Y.Kikuchi			4.75	4-9
J.Ryan			3.60	7-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 6-8	-1.5+170	o7-120	-102
Blue Jays 11-6	+1.5-200	u7+100	-117

Friday 11:07 p.m.

May 10, 2024

Rogers CentreToronto

B.Bichette o1.5 Total Bases+125

1.25u

Gotta go back bc always a day early

MIN +112

0.56u

NOT A BET - TRACKING ONLY Cashed out of Toronto (-112) after lineups. Updated projection is -115 so its a slight edge or basically a break-even bet. Prefer to limit exposure to this Jays team unless there’s a real edge

Y.Kikuchi u17.5 Outs-115

1.15u

Betting on the hot twins bats here. 6/8 (6/L6) lefty starters under this line.

MIN -105

2.5u

Under 7.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -115

TOR -112

0.56u

Update: Cashed out after lineups. Could ride but the edge is narrow

Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 34% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- third highest in MLB. Blue Jays left-handed hitters have struck out 30% against RHP over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Blue Jays have a strikeout rate of 24% vs left-handed batters since last season -- fourth highest in MLB. Twins left-handed hitters have struck out 28% against RHP since last season -- highest in MLB.

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The Twins are 77-14 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

The Blue Jays are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Max Kepler has an OPS of .952 this season -- 12th best among hitters with at least 51 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Genesis Cabrera has allowed an OPS of .939 (68 PAs) this season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Bo Bichette is batting just .136 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 70% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for third highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Joe Ryan has walked 2 of 63 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 90th Percentile.

Joe Ryan has walked 6 of 162 batters (4%) this season -- tied for 5th best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% -- 91st Percentile.

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .360 (9 Total Bases / 25 ABs) with two-strikes -- tied for 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .250 -- 14th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Blue Jays are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Blue Jays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Blue Jays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	83-79	35-46	48-33	38-41	43-37
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Blue Jays	81-77-4	45-34-2	36-43-2	39-39-1	41-36-3
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Blue Jays	74-88	39-42	35-46	44-35	27-53
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 8th	@PHI	W 5-3	+1.5 W	U 9	TOR +142
May 7th	@PHI	L 1-10	-1.5 L	O 8	PHI -102
May 5th	@WSH	L 8-11	-1.5 L	O 8.5	WSH -106
May 4th	@WSH	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	TOR -175
May 3rd	@WSH	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 8.5	WSH -214

Daulton Varsho
OF
Varsho is out with shoulder
Out
Alek Manoah
P
Manoah is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Ryan, P	104	7	7	1
RJ.Duran, P	13	1	0	0
RG.Jax, P	26	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Jeffers, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2C.Correa, SS	2-4	2	0	0
3W.Castro, CF	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Miranda, 3B	1-3	0	0	1
4M.Kepler, PH	1-1	0	0	1
4M.Kepler, RF	1-1	0	0	1
5M.Margot, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5M.Margot, LF	1-4	0	0	0
6C.Santana, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
7K.Farmer, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7K.Farmer, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Martin, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LY.Kikuchi, P	97	8	3	2
RN.Pearson, P	8	0.2	1	1
LG.Cabrera, P	10	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1D.Schneider, LF	0-3	0	0	0
2D.Varsho, CF	0-4	0	0	0
3V.Guerrero, 1B	2-4	0	0	0
4J.Turner, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5D.Jansen, C	0-4	0	0	0
6B.Bichette, SS	2-4	1	0	0
7C.Biggio, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	3-4	1	1	2
9E.Clement, 3B	1-4	0	0	0