Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 2, 2023

Heat at Nuggets

12:30 am • ABC

Miami Heat

1-4

93 - 104

Denver Nuggets

4-1

104

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 1-4	+8.5-110	o218.5-110	+290
Nuggets 4-1	-8.5-115	u218.5-110	-360

Friday 12:30 a.m.

June 02, 2023

Ball ArenaDenver

N.Jokic o51.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

2.2u

Under 219-110

2.73u

DEN -8.5-112

2.68u

M.Porter o7.5 Rebs-105

DEN -9-105

K.Caldwell-Pope o14.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

Over 219-110

1.1u

B.Adebayo o16.5 Pts-120

0.83u

B.Adebayo o16.5 Pts-120

Analysis can be found on Twitter @PropBomb

K.Lowry u3.5 Ast-120

1.2u

Lowry cleared this in 4 of 7 games last series against the Celtics, averaging 3.9 ast/g. However, his pass rate and potential assist rate were considerably lower, but he was able to convert on 71% of his potential assists (48% on the season). The Heat have been shooting way above expectation and shot 43% from behind the arc in the Conf Finals. They are unlikely to keep that up and Lowry’s ast rate should take a hit. I’m projecting this closer to -150

C.Martin o15.5 Pts-110

1.1u

Follow me on Twitter @Reno_Jonny All plays are at Vegasinsider.com

DEN -8.5-115

0.87u

Have avoided betting against MIA but like this spot. Game 1 Finals favorites 15-3 (83%) ATS since '05, and DEN NBA-best 14-7-1 (67%) with a rest advantage and matches up almost perfectly with MIA on both sides. Wouldn't go above -9.

J.Butler o5.5 Ast-140

0.71u

DEN scheme has made him a passer: 8+ in all 4g vs DEN over past 3 seasons with potential assist numbers well above normal averages.

J.Murray u25.5 Pts-108

Via Prop Bomb

DEN -8.5-112

0.89u

@ChrisRaybon and @wheatonbrando

J.Butler u27.5 Pts-120

0.83u

@wheatonbrando

C.Martin u6.5 Rebs+102

1.02u

@ChrisRaybon

DEN -4.5 (1H)-110

0.91u

@wheatonbrando

J.Murray u25.5 Pts-102

1.02u

Don’t expect a lot of help on Jokic like LAL did last series which opened up the shooters. MIA allows 3rd fewest PTS vs. PnR Ball-handers (Murray’s highest FREQ%) & can put Caleb, Jimmy, & Gabe on him to slow him down. #PlayerProps

Under 112 (1H)-110

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-140

1.4u

DEN o113.5-115

1.15u

Over 219-110

MIA +3.5 (1Q)-115

A.Gordon o2.5 Ast-120

3+ in 6 of last 7 playoff games and 3+ in all 4 games vs MIA as a Nugget.

DEN o113.5-115

0.58u

Over 218.5-110

1.1u

DEN o114-104

J.Butler u33.5 Pts+Ast-120

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-bet-jimmy-butler-heat-vs-nuggets-june-1

N.Jokic u50.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

K.Caldwell-Pope o2.5 3pt M+235

0.5u

Over 219-110

1.1u

@gogo_dino tail

M.Porter o15.5 Pts-114

$57.00

C.Martin u7.5 Rebs-138

0.36u

G.Vincent u2.5 Rebs-175

0.57u

2 reb or less in 13-of-17 (76.5%) of playoff games and DEN misses fewer shots than everyone MIA has faced.

C.Martin u7.5 Rebs-138

0.72u

Regression bet after 2 straight outliers. Still expecting big minutes, but Martin is a 6.0 reb/36 guy now facing toughest reb MU in the league (DEN shoots a high %, allows playoff-low 38.3 total reb/g). Martin (6'5") at a much bigger height disadvantage vs Jokic/Porter/Gordon than Horford/Tatum/Brown.

DEN -4.5 (1H)-120

0.21u

DEN -8.5-110

0.45u

Best Bets: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-odds-best-bets-expert-picks-heat-vs-nuggets-predictions-june-1

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-130

For more, check out my Player Props Forecast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-betting-forecast-bam-adebayo-nikola-jokic-nba-finals

N.Jokic Triple-Double Yes+105

0.53u

N.Jokic o50.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

0.91u

Over 219-110

$110.00

DEN -9-110

0.45u

C.Martin u15.5 Pts-105

0.95u

M.Strus o2.5 3pt M+160

0.5u

DEN -2.5 (1Q)-116

0.86u

Via Sean Little

MIA +9-110

1.1u

K.Caldwell-Pope o2.5 3pt M+235

0.5u

Bet at DraftKings. Shooting 60% from 3PT on 3+ Days Rest. Has been lights out at home and hit this in each Game 1 of series in playoffs. Shot 85% from 3PT (6-7) in 2 games vs MIA this season.

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-135

DEN -8.5-105

DEN -8-110

0.91u

🔨

DEN -8-110

1.82u

Heat hurt on road coming off G7 vs rested superior denver 🔨

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 23rd	@LAL	W 113-111	+3.5 W	U 226	DEN +135
May 21st	@LAL	W 119-108	+5.5 W	O 223	DEN +188
May 19th	LAL	W 108-103	-5.5 L	U 225.5	DEN -220
May 17th	LAL	W 132-126	-7 L	O 222.5	DEN -290
May 12th	@PHX	W 125-100	+1.5 W	U 226	DEN +100

Jamal Murray
PG
Jamal Murray (hamstring) out Friday.
Out

Michael Porter
SF
Michael Porter Jr. (personal) questionable Wednesday.
Questionable
Peyton Watson
PG
Peyton Watson (knee) doubtful Wednesday.
Doubtful
DaRon Holmes
SF
Holmes is out with achilles
Out