Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 2, 2023

Heat at Nuggets

12:30 am • ABC

Miami Heat

1-4

93 - 104

Denver Nuggets

4-1

104

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 1-4	+8.5-110	o218.5-110	+290
Nuggets 4-1	-8.5-115	u218.5-110	-360

Friday 12:30 a.m.

June 02, 2023

Ball ArenaDenver

N.Jokic o51.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

2.2u

DEN -8.5-112

2.68u

Under 219-110

2.73u

M.Porter o7.5 Rebs-105

DEN -9-105

K.Caldwell-Pope o14.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

B.Adebayo o16.5 Pts-120

0.83u

B.Adebayo o16.5 Pts-120

Analysis can be found on Twitter @PropBomb

K.Lowry u3.5 Ast-120

1.2u

Lowry cleared this in 4 of 7 games last series against the Celtics, averaging 3.9 ast/g. However, his pass rate and potential assist rate were considerably lower, but he was able to convert on 71% of his potential assists (48% on the season). The Heat have been shooting way above expectation and shot 43% from behind the arc in the Conf Finals. They are unlikely to keep that up and Lowry’s ast rate should take a hit. I’m projecting this closer to -150

C.Martin o15.5 Pts-110

1.1u

Follow me on Twitter @Reno_Jonny All plays are at Vegasinsider.com

DEN -8.5-115

0.87u

Have avoided betting against MIA but like this spot. Game 1 Finals favorites 15-3 (83%) ATS since '05, and DEN NBA-best 14-7-1 (67%) with a rest advantage and matches up almost perfectly with MIA on both sides. Wouldn't go above -9.

J.Butler o5.5 Ast-140

0.71u

DEN scheme has made him a passer: 8+ in all 4g vs DEN over past 3 seasons with potential assist numbers well above normal averages.

J.Murray u25.5 Pts-108

Via Prop Bomb

DEN -8.5-112

0.89u

@ChrisRaybon and @wheatonbrando

J.Butler u27.5 Pts-120

0.83u

@wheatonbrando

C.Martin u6.5 Rebs+102

1.02u

@ChrisRaybon

DEN -4.5 (1H)-110

0.91u

@wheatonbrando

J.Murray u25.5 Pts-102

1.02u

Don’t expect a lot of help on Jokic like LAL did last series which opened up the shooters. MIA allows 3rd fewest PTS vs. PnR Ball-handers (Murray’s highest FREQ%) & can put Caleb, Jimmy, & Gabe on him to slow him down. #PlayerProps

Under 112 (1H)-110

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-140

1.4u

DEN o113.5-115

1.15u

A.Gordon o2.5 Ast-120

3+ in 6 of last 7 playoff games and 3+ in all 4 games vs MIA as a Nugget.

DEN o113.5-115

0.58u

Over 218.5-110

1.1u

DEN o114-104

J.Butler u33.5 Pts+Ast-120

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-bet-jimmy-butler-heat-vs-nuggets-june-1

N.Jokic u50.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

K.Caldwell-Pope o2.5 3pt M+235

0.5u

M.Porter o15.5 Pts-114

$57.00

C.Martin u23.5 Pts+Rebs-125

0.5u

C.Martin u7.5 Rebs-138

0.36u

G.Vincent u2.5 Rebs-175

0.57u

2 reb or less in 13-of-17 (76.5%) of playoff games and DEN misses fewer shots than everyone MIA has faced.

C.Martin u7.5 Rebs-138

0.72u

Regression bet after 2 straight outliers. Still expecting big minutes, but Martin is a 6.0 reb/36 guy now facing toughest reb MU in the league (DEN shoots a high %, allows playoff-low 38.3 total reb/g). Martin (6'5") at a much bigger height disadvantage vs Jokic/Porter/Gordon than Horford/Tatum/Brown.

DEN -4.5 (1H)-120

0.21u

DEN -8.5-110

0.45u

Best Bets: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-odds-best-bets-expert-picks-heat-vs-nuggets-predictions-june-1

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-130

For more, check out my Player Props Forecast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-betting-forecast-bam-adebayo-nikola-jokic-nba-finals

N.Jokic Triple-Double Yes+105

0.53u

N.Jokic o50.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110

0.91u

DEN -9-110

0.45u

C.Martin u15.5 Pts-105

0.95u

M.Strus o2.5 3pt M+160

0.5u

DEN -2.5 (1Q)-116

0.86u

Via Sean Little

MIA +9-110

1.1u

K.Caldwell-Pope o2.5 3pt M+235

0.5u

Bet at DraftKings. Shooting 60% from 3PT on 3+ Days Rest. Has been lights out at home and hit this in each Game 1 of series in playoffs. Shot 85% from 3PT (6-7) in 2 games vs MIA this season.

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-135

DEN -8-115

DEN -8.5-105

DEN -8-110

0.91u

🔨

DEN -8-110

1.82u

Heat hurt on road coming off G7 vs rested superior denver 🔨

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NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 23rd	@LAL	W 113-111	+3.5 W	U 226	DEN +135
May 21st	@LAL	W 119-108	+5.5 W	O 223	DEN +188
May 19th	LAL	W 108-103	-5.5 L	U 225.5	DEN -220
May 17th	LAL	W 132-126	-7 L	O 222.5	DEN -290
May 12th	@PHX	W 125-100	+1.5 W	U 226	DEN +100