Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 19, 2023

Lakers at Nuggets

12:30 am • ESPN

Los Angeles Lakers

0-4

103

103 - 108

Denver Nuggets

4-0

108

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Lakers 0-4	+5.5-110	o225.5-110	+180
Nuggets 4-0	-5.5-110	u225.5-110	-220

Friday 12:30 a.m.

May 19, 2023

Ball ArenaDenver

N.Jokic o1.5 3pt M+165

L.Walker u7.5 Pts-125

0.4u

LAL +5.5-110

0.91u

L.Walker u7.5 Pts-110

Lineup change: Vandy starting. Different fit this series. Schroder coming off bench & should take USG in lineups w/ Lonnie & Rui. 51.4% of shots coming from 3PT & DEN allows 4th fewest. He took 1 shot in the 2nd half. #PlayerProps

L.James o25.5 Pts-115

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

Under 226.5-110

DEN -5.5-110

1.1u

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-120

Via @JoeDellera & @wheatonbrando . 12 reb chances in Game 1. 7 & 9 L2 vs: LAL. Malone puts him on AR, making it easier to sag off & help on blitz. This also allows him to be closer to rim while AG is busy w/ LeBron. #PlayerProps

LAL +180

0.5u

LAL +5.5-105

A.Gordon u21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

D.Russell u20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Don’t think this series is for him. LAL need size. 9 MIN in the 2nd half. D’Lo was a team worst (-25) in Game 1 vs. DEN & may be at risk for losing his starting role. Tough matchup vs. KCP & B. Brown. 4.0 pAST L4. #PlayerProps

L.James u2.5 3pt M-185

Under in 10 of L12 games. AG tight on-ball defense. LBJ avg. 1.4 3PM vs. DEN (4th lowest) amongst all teams L2 szn. DEN 3rd lowest 3PT FREQ% in playoffs & allow 4th lowest above-the-break 3PA (LBJ takes 97% of time). #PlayerProps

L.James u1.5 3pt M+165

0.66u

A.Reaves o23.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.43u

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-112

0.89u

@wheatonbrando

D.Schroder o9.5 Pts+100

@GDAWG5000

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-120

0.83u

@wheatonbrando

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

@GDAWG5000

K.Caldwell-Pope o1.5 3pt M-105

0.95u

M.Porter Double-Double (Yes)+550

0.25u

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-125

0.64u

A.Gordon o2.5 Ast+105

0.6u

LAL +176

$100.00

LAL +5.5-112

$100.00

DEN -5-112

1.12u

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-125

DEN -5.5-110

1.1u

A.Davis u2.5 Ast+118

Doubling down on this after AD managed to dish out 3 assists on 1 potential assist last game. Yes, you read that correctly. I was wondering out loud on twitter how he got credit for 2 of his assists (that were very questionable calls by the scorekeeper) and the tracking data apparently backed me up. His pass rate and potential assist rate were down in Game 1 and yet he had a 300% potential assist conversion rate. “He can’t keep getting away with this!”. Projecting this closer to -145

D.Schroder o9.5 Pts+100

Bet at FanDuel. Likely starting again in G2 and Russell minutes trending down. See full analysis on @GreenDotDaily at 3pm ET.

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-125

0.8u

Via @wheatonbrando

B.Brown o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

DEN u116-115

0.87u

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

1.15u

Bet at DraftKings. Big bounceback spot for AG. This is down to -135 and -140 at some books. Grabbing now before DK adjusts. See full analysis on @GreenDotDaily at 3pm ET.

DEN -5.5-108

1.08u

D.Schroder o5.5 Rebs+Ast-125

0.8u

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-129

$64.50

D.Russell o13.5 Pts-109

$54.50

Under 227-110

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-117

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-120

1.2u

15 points in game 1, but made 2/3 closely contested threes. Lakers 6th best vs spot up shooters in reg season (1.01 ppp - 0.95 in playoffs). Under in 7/12 in playoffs.

D.Russell u4.5 Ast-120

Didn't play the last 13 minutes of Game 1 and will get squeezed again due to lack of defense. 3, 1, 2, 3 assists L4 on 4.9 potential assists per game -- way down from his 11.1 potentials per game during regular season.

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

A.Gordon u15.5 Pts+Ast-115

0.1u

A.Reaves u19.5 Pts+Ast-117

0.12u

Under 227-110

LAL +190

0.3u

LAL +5.5-110

LAL +6-120

$100.00

Run it back Turbo 😈

LAL +6-110

0.45u

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NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Lakers	39-44	21-22	18-22	21-26	18-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Lakers	47-36	21-22	26-14	26-21	21-15

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Lakers	1-4	N/A	N/A	33-14	15-21

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 17th	LAL	W 132-126	-7 L	O 222.5	DEN -290
May 12th	@PHX	W 125-100	+1.5 W	U 226	DEN +100
May 10th	PHX	W 118-102	-7 W	U 227.5	DEN -260
May 8th	@PHX	L 124-129	+1 L	O 226	PHX -105
May 6th	@PHX	L 114-121	+4 L	O 225	PHX +150

Jamal Murray
PG
Jamal Murray (hamstring) out Friday.
Out

Michael Porter
SF
Michael Porter Jr. (personal) questionable Wednesday.
Questionable
Peyton Watson
PG
Peyton Watson (knee) doubtful Wednesday.
Doubtful
DaRon Holmes
SF
Holmes is out with achilles
Out