Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 19, 2023

Lakers at Nuggets

12:30 am • ESPN

Los Angeles Lakers

0-4

103

103 - 108

Denver Nuggets

4-0

108

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Lakers 0-4	+5.5-110	o225.5-110	+180
Nuggets 4-0	-5.5-110	u225.5-110	-220

Friday 12:30 a.m.

May 19, 2023

Ball ArenaDenver

N.Jokic o1.5 3pt M+165

L.Walker u7.5 Pts-125

0.4u

LAL +5.5-110

0.91u

L.Walker u7.5 Pts-110

Lineup change: Vandy starting. Different fit this series. Schroder coming off bench & should take USG in lineups w/ Lonnie & Rui. 51.4% of shots coming from 3PT & DEN allows 4th fewest. He took 1 shot in the 2nd half. #PlayerProps

L.James o25.5 Pts-115

Follow all my picks at FTNBets.com!

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-120

Via @JoeDellera & @wheatonbrando . 12 reb chances in Game 1. 7 & 9 L2 vs: LAL. Malone puts him on AR, making it easier to sag off & help on blitz. This also allows him to be closer to rim while AG is busy w/ LeBron. #PlayerProps

LAL +180

0.5u

LAL +5.5-105

A.Gordon u21.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

D.Russell u20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Don’t think this series is for him. LAL need size. 9 MIN in the 2nd half. D’Lo was a team worst (-25) in Game 1 vs. DEN & may be at risk for losing his starting role. Tough matchup vs. KCP & B. Brown. 4.0 pAST L4. #PlayerProps

L.James u2.5 3pt M-185

Under in 10 of L12 games. AG tight on-ball defense. LBJ avg. 1.4 3PM vs. DEN (4th lowest) amongst all teams L2 szn. DEN 3rd lowest 3PT FREQ% in playoffs & allow 4th lowest above-the-break 3PA (LBJ takes 97% of time). #PlayerProps

L.James u1.5 3pt M+165

0.66u

A.Reaves o23.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.43u

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-112

0.89u

@wheatonbrando

D.Schroder o9.5 Pts+100

@GDAWG5000

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-120

0.83u

@wheatonbrando

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

@GDAWG5000

K.Caldwell-Pope o1.5 3pt M-105

0.95u

M.Porter Double-Double (Yes)+550

0.25u

M.Porter o6.5 Rebs-125

0.64u

A.Gordon o2.5 Ast+105

0.6u

LAL +176

$100.00

LAL +5.5-112

$100.00

DEN -5-112

1.12u

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-125

A.Davis u2.5 Ast+118

Doubling down on this after AD managed to dish out 3 assists on 1 potential assist last game. Yes, you read that correctly. I was wondering out loud on twitter how he got credit for 2 of his assists (that were very questionable calls by the scorekeeper) and the tracking data apparently backed me up. His pass rate and potential assist rate were down in Game 1 and yet he had a 300% potential assist conversion rate. “He can’t keep getting away with this!”. Projecting this closer to -145

D.Schroder o9.5 Pts+100

Bet at FanDuel. Likely starting again in G2 and Russell minutes trending down. See full analysis on @GreenDotDaily at 3pm ET.

A.Davis o3.5 Stl+Blk-125

0.8u

Via @wheatonbrando

B.Brown o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-115

0.87u

DEN u116-115

0.87u

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

1.15u

Bet at DraftKings. Big bounceback spot for AG. This is down to -135 and -140 at some books. Grabbing now before DK adjusts. See full analysis on @GreenDotDaily at 3pm ET.

DEN -5.5-108

1.08u

D.Schroder o5.5 Rebs+Ast-125

0.8u

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-129

$64.50

D.Russell o13.5 Pts-109

$54.50

Under 227-110

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-117

M.Porter u15.5 Pts-120

1.2u

15 points in game 1, but made 2/3 closely contested threes. Lakers 6th best vs spot up shooters in reg season (1.01 ppp - 0.95 in playoffs). Under in 7/12 in playoffs.

D.Russell u4.5 Ast-120

Didn't play the last 13 minutes of Game 1 and will get squeezed again due to lack of defense. 3, 1, 2, 3 assists L4 on 4.9 potential assists per game -- way down from his 11.1 potentials per game during regular season.

A.Gordon o0.5 3pt M-115

LAL +190

0.3u

A.Gordon u15.5 Pts+Ast-115

0.1u

A.Reaves u19.5 Pts+Ast-117

0.12u

Under 227-110

LAL +5.5-110

LAL +6-120

$100.00

Run it back Turbo 😈

LAL +6-110

0.45u

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NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 19 of Nuggets' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5
Lakers	39-44	21-22	18-22	21-26	18-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6
Lakers	47-36	21-22	26-14	26-21	21-15

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6
Lakers	1-4	N/A	N/A	33-14	15-21

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 17th	LAL	W 132-126	-7 L	O 222.5	DEN -290
May 12th	@PHX	W 125-100	+1.5 W	U 226	DEN +100
May 10th	PHX	W 118-102	-7 W	U 227.5	DEN -260
May 8th	@PHX	L 124-129	+1 L	O 226	PHX -105
May 6th	@PHX	L 114-121	+4 L	O 225	PHX +150