Kings vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - March 4, 2025

In-depth Writeup on X: @PicksOffice

The Kings face off against the Mavericks tonight in a matchup which could trend towards small ball lineups. The Kings are without Domantas Sabonis for this game and they leaned on Jonas Valanciunas last time out against the Rockets. My concern there is that Houston seemingly necessitates a big due to their size, while Dallas is dealing with so many injuries to their bigs that they’ve been running smaller lineups out there by necessity. While Valanciunas presents a mismatch, I’m not convinced that it’s optimal for Sacramento to build a game plan around that perceived edge. Zach LaVine has been solid this season, but he has taken a bit of a downturn since playing on the Kings. He’s averaging 22.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. His Usage also dropped from 27.0% to 24.8% on the Kings. Some of this is playing with DeRozan and Malik Monk, two higher Usage Players; however, Sabonis has not been someone LaVine has thrived next to. LaVine is scoring 26.3 points per 100 with Sabonis compared to 38.4 without him during his Kings’ tenure. He also sees an uptick in Usage. He climbs from 22.7 to 30.0 without Sabonis. This matchup against Dallas is exploitable for LaVine, and I’ll back him to see an uptick without Sabonis.