Knicks vs. Pacers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 18, 2024

need -130 or better

Over his last 56 mins of floor time, Turner has taken only 7 2P shots (and only 4 within 8 feet). The Knicks have stayed close to him on the PnR, almost daring Hali to finish at the bucket. And with the Knicks going small last game, Turner was used more to clear out so the Pacers could try to exploit Siakam vs Hart in the post. Turner is very capable at hitting his threes, but even if he shoots slightly above avg, I don’t see him getting enough volume. He’s also been terrible on the boards, and there is a world where Jackson gets more mins to solidify the Pacers rebounding. Under in 3/5 this series.

#Tailing @PropBomb

In Game 5, Coach Thibs made a huge adjustment to the rotation for offense and spacing, inserting Miles McBride for Precious Achiuwa into the starting lineup. While on paper it looks like he played for 23 minutes, I believe this was strongly misleading due to several factors. For starters, 3 of those came in garage time, and he saw a full 12 minutes in the 2nd quarter, with overlap with Hartenstein solely because Thibs was giving Josh Hart (39 MIN) a rest. Tonight, assuming with two extra days off that Josh Hart plays 44+ and Isaiah Hartenstein is not in foul trouble (hasn’t been this series), this should mean that Precious Achiuwa’s minutes can only come in as the backup center, or in a blowout. There can only 96 MIN to go around for the PF/C rotation and if Hart would play PF 43+ and Hartenstein should play C 33-35 MIN of them that leave Achiuwa pegged for 14-18 minutes (lower upside if Hart plays 48 minutes) of playing time. And plus, if we look back to when this rotation last happened was on 3/18 vs. GSW where Achiuwa played 18 MIN (back when Hartenstein was on a minutes limit) and had 5 OREBS on 15 PR and 3/29 vs. SAS playing 16 MIN including Hartenstein fouling out with only 28 MIN and Achiuwa collecting 11 PR on 3 OREBs. Per CourtIQ, Achiuwa averages 9.54 PR Per-18 MIN in the playoffs (assuming this is upside), but there is a very good chance he sees less if this game is close and Hart can handle the playing time. And should he not get as many OREBs and putbacks which are more unlikely than not, I love his chances of going under this prop. #PlayerProps

Ryanpropz NBA Straight

Hart has cleared this line in 4/5 games this series (and 8/11 in the playoffs), with the one miss being the game where the Pacers blew the Knicks out. That was a game where Brunson did look 100%, and the Pacers were able to guard him 1 on 1 the most part. After Brunson’s elite performance in game 5, the Pacers will inevitably be more aggressive with their coverage/double teams. Whether that means Siakam doubling or rotating off Turner’s double, Hart will be left open in this one, since the Pacers won’t help off DDV. Whether it’s catch and shoot opportunities or drives, I see Hart with another 14ish shot attempts and 10 potential assists. And you can bet another emphasis for Indy will be boxing out Hartenstein on the offensive glass - I like Hart to grab a few more oREB in this one.

Projection leans to the over and +ev bet with devig odds of -131

@ChrisRaybon

Got this earlier, placed last night on scores and odds.

Projection leans to the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -125

The Knicks head to Indiana for Game 6 and all eyes will be on Jalen Brunson. Brunson looked fresh in Game five and not hampered by the foot injury that was ailing him in games two, three, and four. Brunson was the clear head of the snake and took an absurd 35 shots in Game five. This was far more than any game this series; however, it aligns with his performances against the 76ers where he crushed this line and had games with 27, 34 and 32 FGAs. Two of those games came with extended rest and he cleared 50 PA in both games. The volume is there and the Knicks have found a successful formula to get Haliburton into the action by using McBride to set ball screens for Brunson to open things up for him. While the Pacers may try to send doubles, this has not been successful. Double teams are not something Indiana has utilized much at all this season and whenever they do send doubles, Brunson and the Knicks have crushed them with the 4-3 advantage. McBride is also a better scoring threat than Precious Achiuwa which has helped Brunson’s assists. Last game, Brunson racked up 18 potential assists due to his incredible gravity and that assist ceiling can help contribute to this combo prop. Brunson exceeded this 40.5 PA line in Games 1 and 5 - he was on pace to clear this in Game 2 but for the injury and in Games 3 and 4 he was clearly a step slow and there was the blowout. Considering Brunson got an extra day of rest thanks to Caitlin Clark’s home debut on Thursday, I expect him to look fresh and spry while exceeding 40.5 PA.

same page with @JoeDellera

Volume has still been solid in the 1H of the last two games. Think he gets the chance again and this is a bit of an overreaction in terms of the line move