Thunder vs. Grizzlies Odds & Betting Predictions - April 25, 2025

Thunder at Grizzlies

1:30 am • TNT

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-0

114

114 - 108

Memphis Grizzlies

0-3

108

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Thunder 3-0	-9	-10-112	o230.5-111	-450
Grizzlies 0-3	u225.5	+10-108	u230.5-109	+350

Friday 1:30 a.m.

April 25, 2025

FedExForumMemphis

OKC o112.5 Team Total (Live)-134

Over 229.5-110

J.Morant o24.5 Pts-117

@Angrygwan

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 Pts-120

1.2u

SGA has not looked like his normal scoring-first version of himself averaging just 21.0 PPG, and that’s by design. Interim Grizzlies Head Coach Thomas Lisalo is playing peel-switches on him to mute his aggressiveness to compensate for the shorter Scotty Pippen Jr. on him, and while that’s been forcing him to pass out of shots, it’s actually helped the team get more involved in the offense, which is a lot more dangerous than SGA going ISO-heavy. With this in mind, I think it’s the perfect time to buy-low. SGA averages 34.53 PPG Per-36 with the entire rotation healthy, and if Grizzlies were to switch coverages to let SGA score more after switches on pull-ups, then maybe they can keep this game close. Along with that, he’s shooting 32.1 eFG% from his pull-ups which is bound to regress back to his 51.6 eFG%. He’s just running bad on efficiency, something we can use as an edge for him to go over. #PlayerProps

C.Holmgren u25.5 Pts+Rebs+110

1.5u

OKC -8.5-120

1.2u

J.Morant o30.5 Pts+Ast-114

1.14u

OKC -9.5-115

Z.Edey u9.5 Rebs+102

1.02u

J.Williams o21.5 Pts-105

1.05u

Z.Edey u8.5 Pts-118

1.18u

J.Williams o4.5 Ast-145

Over 228.5-105

C.Wallace u2.5 Ast-140

0.7u

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

C.Wallace u2.5 Ast-140

1.4u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 Pts-114

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-picks-predictions-for-first-round-playoff-games-on-thursday-april-24-qs

OKC u118.5-105

S.Gilgeous-Alexander u2.5 3pt M-182

1.26u

MEM +10-110

OKC -8.5-110

Thunder 10-1 ATS last 11 vs Memphis – won last 6. OKC offense rolling – 126.8 PPG last 5. Grizzlies D overwhelmed – 117 PPG allowed, gave up 131 & 118 last two. No signs they can slow Shai or handle pace. OKC ranks top 3 in scoring (120.6), eFG%, 3P%. Shai drives elite offense – 27 last game even on off night. Thunder thrive on road – 32-8 record. Memphis D soft – 45.7% FG allowed, weak on perimeter. Thunder D locks in – top 5 in opp FG% (43.5), 100.4 PPG allowed last 5. Memphis scores (120.9), but shot just 43.3% last meeting. Grizzlies 3-14 ATS last 17 at home – no edge at FedExForum.

Over 226.5-110

Thunder averaging 126.8 PPG over last 5 – offense clicking at the perfect time. Shooting 48.1% FG on season, 37.4% from deep. Grizzlies allowing 117 PPG, 45.7% FG to opponents. Last 2 H2H games? 118 & 131 points by OKC. This one screams pace & points. Memphis scoring 120.9 PPG despite struggles – can match tempo. Both squads top-tier in offensive output, but MEM’s defense ranks bottom-third in key metrics. Grizz can't get stops late, Thunder thrive in track meets. Last meeting: 217 FGAs, 31 3PM combined. Defensive gaps matter – MEM has allowed 117+ in 4 of last 5. Thunder also forcing pace, 43.5% opp FG (top 5). If MEM pushes tempo to keep up, they feed right into OKC’s strength. Too many shot creators, too much firepower. Expect a track meet.

OKC -8.5-115

0.7u

Z.Edey Double-Double (Yes)+260

0.2u

MEM +205 (1H)

1.03u

Z.Edey u20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

MEM +9-105

2.86u

J.Williams o4.5 Ast-125

0.5u

Hit in G1 and G2. Keep running it back!

OKC -8.5-110

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NBA Public Betting

Grizzlies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Grizzlies are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Grizzlies are 21-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Grizzlies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Grizzlies' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Grizzlies	40-39-3	19-21-1	21-18-2	29-22-2	11-17-1
Thunder	54-26-3	29-13-1	25-13-2	50-25-3	3-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Grizzlies	46-36	21-20	25-16	25-28	21-8
Thunder	46-37	25-18	21-19	44-34	2-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Grizzlies	0-3	N/A	N/A	40-13	8-21
Thunder	3-0	N/A	N/A	64-14	3-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 22nd	@OKC	L 99-118	+14.5 L	U 230	OKC +660
Apr 20th	@OKC	L 80-131	+13 L	U 232	OKC +625
Apr 19th	DAL	W 120-106	-6 W	O 222.5	MEM -238
Apr 16th	@GSW	L 116-121	+6.5 W	O 226.5	GSW +225
Apr 13th	DAL	W 132-97	+1.5 W	O 228.5	MEM +105