Pacers vs. Bucks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2024

Courtside pal gives big boost to the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -151 giving value to this number

#Tailing @PropBomb

The Bucks and Pacers will battle in Game 1 of their first-round matchup Sunday Night and one player I see in line for an expanded role and feeding off the energy from the home crowd is Bobby Portis. He has thrived and always stepped up for the Bucks in Antetokounmpo’s absence averaging 20.8 PPG in the nine times without him, clearing his prop in six of the seven games seeing at least 30+ minutes. And there’s one team that filters paint touches to opposing frontcourt players, it’s the Pacers. Advanced metric back this up as Portis is seen averaging 15.8 FGA Per-33 minutes in the 598 minutes with Lillard ON the court and Giannis OFF. 15 shots will be the magic number. In games where Portis reached this he’s averaging 20.8 PPG, clearing in six of six. With Doc Rivers’ midseason adjustment sacrificing offense for defense using Pat Beverley over Malik Beasley, Portis should see elevated looks with an additional playmaker in the starting the lineup. As for the matchup, Lillard will carry the load, but could see some pressure with Nehmbhard and Neshmith/Siakam will have his hand full with Middleton. I expect Portis to really crush against a Pacers squad limited catch & shoot but surrendering the most points in the paint in the league. #PlayerProps

Under this number in 9/L10 and 90% hit rate Bucks playing slower pace without Giannis should be less chances to rebound

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Pacers get bounced 1st round

#Tailing @JoeDellera

The Bucks generally play drop defense which remained effective when they had Jrue Holiday; however, the perimeter defense with Damian Lillard has been brutal. The Bucks lack a true point-of-attack defender and they are generally tied to their defensive scheme due to their personnel.  The Bucks have been torched by lead guards this season and Tyrese Haliburton is one of them. In five games against the Bucks, Haliburton has averaged 27.0 points, 11.0 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. I’m targeting his 24.5 PR. He has exceeded this in every game against the Bucks this season. While there is consistency with the scoring, there is significant upside with the rebounds. He has logged 6, 7, 5, 9, and 2 rebounds with an average of 9.4 rebound chances – those chances represent a nearly 50% uptick from the 6.7 he averages on the season, per NBA Advanced Stats. I like the combo prop here because I can capture the upside of both stats in a plus and fast-paced matchup.  It absolutely is notable that Haliburton did all of that without Pascal Siakam. However, the guards have dominated in this spot while Siakam has been inconsistent. Give me Hali to exceed 24.5 PR.

Courtside pal gives a boost to the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -123 giving value to this number