Pistons vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - October 28, 2024
Pistons at Heat
11:30 pm • FDSSUNPistons at Heat Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pistons 1-4 | +7.5 | +8.5-110 | o219.5-110 | +280 |
Heat 2-2 | u221 | -8.5-110 | u219.5-110 | -350 |
Monday 11:30 p.m.
October 28, 2024Kaseya CenterMiami
Pistons vs. Heat Expert Picks
CeeJ Picks
4d ago
Last 30d: 84-125-1 (+38.6u)
J.Jaquez o14.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-110
1u
Hit in 2/2 games this season and 62% of games last season
Hit in 2/3 games vs DET with 15+ minutes
His minutes have grown each game with him playing 21 minutes last game and projected for 22+ minutes today
Averaging 10.5 Rebound chances per game and converting on 50% with an average of 5.5 RPG
Averaging 3.5 potential assists per game with 4 and 3 in his 1st 2 games
This line came down to his shooting performance last year with him clearing this line in 2/3 when he played at least 15 minutes like he will today. He attempted 7 and 14 shots in those 2 games scoring 11 and 15 pts, but his only miss was when he shot just 1-5 and still almost cleared with 11 PRA
Too good of a player and the books aren't moving this line yet, I think this line should be more around 16.5 - 18.5 depending on the matchup for a player like Jaquez
Top Shelf Action 🥃
4d ago
Last 30d: 192-226-1 (-23.1u)
T.Herro o4.5 Ast+106
0.64u
3.45% ev
J.Ivey o1.5 3pt M+100
0.6u
3.39% ev
Milly Props
4d ago
Last 30d: 6-6-0 (+0.9u)
J.Duren Double-Double (Yes)+100
1u
Duren only has a DD in 1/3 games this season but the two misses were in horrible MU for C's to grab rebounds (IND and BOS). Duren has scored 10+ PTS in 2/3 games this season but I think this comes down to his rebounds.
Duren had a DD in 4/4 games vs. MIA last season and 5/5 career games vs. Bam when playing 20+ MIN. Duren's AVG 18.3 REB chances this season and AVG 18.7 LS, so he's due for some positive regression in his REB chance%. In four games vs. MIA last season, Duren AVG 20.0 RC and 22.5 in two games w/o Ausar.
Duren had a DD in 10/12 games w/o Ausar last season and AVG 19.4 REB chances. When Duren has had 17+ RC in a game, he's grabbed 10+ REB in 38/40 games..
MIA switch everything defensively, especially Bam on PnR since he's capable of defending 1-5 and it was apparent watching the last game. Cade runs the 8th most PnR actions in the league, so Duren should have cross-matches down low and a huge advantage on the offensive glass. MIA are also allowing the 5th most PnR PPP to the roller because they switch everything
Player Prop Savant
4d ago
Last 30d: 31-28-0 (+5.1u)
J.Duren o10.5 Rebs-120
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
4d ago
Last 30d: 192-226-1 (-23.1u)
T.Rozier o3.5 Ast-140
0.8u
3% ev
Picks Office
4d ago
Last 30d: 79-92-4 (-20.5u)
Under 219.5-105
0.95u
Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Detroit's young roster, led by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, struggles with scoring consistency, especially in fourth quarters, contributing to a winless start. Their slow pace hints at low-scoring games. Miami, also playing at a controlled pace, relies heavily on Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, as Bam Adebayo faces early scoring challenges. Both teams’ low offensive rebounding ranks limit second-chance points, indicating likely lower game totals.
Prop Bet Guy
4d ago
Last 30d: 88-72-0 (+6.8u)
B.Adebayo o0.5 3pt M+120
1u
He’s 0/4 so far from deep, but he’s taken 2 in each game. Finished last season making 1 in 11/17, and took 13 in 81 preseason minutes. It’s clearly something that’s now a part of his game, and this should be a solid spot for it. The Pistons have employed a pretty deep drop this season to keep Duren closer to the bucket for rim protection, which is a staple of JB Bickerstaff (the Cavs allowed 10 threes attempted by centers per game last season, the 2nd most in the NBA - positional value being loosely defined here, but still, it makes the point). Myles Turner took 8 against them, Mobley took 3 (Allen never shoots threes), and Horford took 8 - all easily their highest volume of the season.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
4d ago
Last 30d: 192-226-1 (-23.1u)
M.Beasley o8.5 Pts-102
0.6u
3.27% ev
Charlie DiSturco
4d ago
Last 30d: 61-75-1 (+8.4u)
B.Adebayo o0.5 3pt M+150
0.5u
#tailing @GDAWG5000 & @PropBomb
Prop Bomb 🏝
4d ago
Last 30d: 10-7-0 (+2.8u)
B.Adebayo o0.5 3pt M+165
1u
There’s some instances where he’ll be spaced more behind the three, … it’s all on us, myself, Terry, and everybody, to recognize we can get the ball to him in a place that puts pressure on the defense.” - Erik Spoesltra
Everyone’s sour about this prop but I’m not. Purposely waited the first two games vs. ORL and CHA where it wasn’t the best matchup, yet Adebayo still attempted a combined four shots.
As shown in the picture, this is the spot to attack this prop vs. the Pistons, where he had a game winner doing it to last season. The defense is organized around pressuring the ball handler with a backup defender in PnR, limiting drives with Duren in drop coverage, which creates wide open leak-out pick and pops to the open center.
We saw this play out in the Pistons last two matchup with big men Myles Turner and Al Horford, BOTH taking eight attempts from downtown. I have Adebayo taking 2-4 shots tonight, and with odds in the plus here, I’ll gladly take a chance he hits his first 3-pointer tonight where I’ll be live to see in person! #PlayerProps
Gilles Gallant
4d ago
Last 30d: 45-85-1 (+8.3u)
B.Adebayo o0.5 3pt M+165
0.5u
Markus Markets
4d ago
Last 30d: 52-63-1 (+8.1u)
J.Duren o22.5 Pts+Rebs-105
1u
Bet365
Joe Dellera
4d ago
Last 30d: 45-59-1 (-8.2u)
J.Duren o29.5 Pts+Rebs+500
0.2u
J.Duren o22.5 Pts+Rebs-109
0.09u
Meant to bet to win 1 unit
J.Duren o22.5 Pts+Rebs-109
1u
Jalen Duren and the Pistons face off against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat on Monday night. This is a matchup Duren has fared well in over the last few seasons.
Duren has averaged 15.4 points and 13.0 rebounds since he took over the starting 5 role for the Pistons. He’s exceeded this 22.5 line in 4/5 with the miss still resulting in a Double Double.
Duren’s minutes have been stable this season as well, playing roughly 30 minutes in each game. When he has played at least 25 minutes he has hit this in 42/51 games over the last two seasons while averaging 27.8 PR.
Duren is a ball hawk on the glass which aligns well against Bam’s style of play which often results in him playing a roaming style of defense away from the basket. This works well for Duren to crash the glass on both sides of the floor.
I’m backing Dyuren to have a strong performance on Monday night.
Prop Bet Guy
5d ago
Last 30d: 88-72-0 (+6.8u)
N.Jović o7.5 Pts-125
1.25u
10+ in both games - has been aggressive in terms of getting his shot up, which we saw last season (over in 19/29 last season with just 20+ minutes). Gets a nice spot vs the Pistons who have been a bit leaky against spot up shooters to start the season.
PRO Insights
Pistons
DET Insights
- Featured InsightThe Pistons allowed opponents to shoot 45% in close and late situations last season -- 10th-best in the NBA; the Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season -- worst in the NBA.
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Heat
MIA Insights
- Featured InsightThe Heat have forced 14.5 turnovers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season -- 10th-highest in the NBA; the Pistons have averaged 15.1 turnovers/game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season -- T-3rd-highest in the NBA.
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Pistons vs. Heat Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Pistons vs. Heat Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Heat are 2-2 in their last 5 games.
- Heat are 1-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Heat are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Heat' last 4 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Heat' 3 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Pistons vs. Heat Injury Updates
Pistons Injuries
- Ausar ThompsonPF
Thompson is out with illness
Out
Heat Injuries
- Kevin LoveSF
Love is out with personal
Out
Player Stats
- scoringJimmy Butler23ppg
- reboundingBam Adebayo10rpg
- assistsJimmy Butler7apg
- shootingJimmy Butler63.6fg%
Team Stats
Pistons vs. Heat Odds Comparison
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Pistons at Heat Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Pistons 1-4 | o105.5-108 | u105.5-112 |
Heat 2-2 | o114.5-102 | u114.5-118 |