Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 29, 2024

Over in 3/3 this series so far, and there are so many angles for him to get minutes tonight. - He’s been much better than KAT - Gets minutes with KAT or Gobert foul trouble (a very real possibility with the Luka/Kyrie PnR) - Might get more minutes if the Wolves are down and need points One of the above has happened in each game this series. Plus, no Lively, which eliminates the Mavs best interior defender. I see Naz getting 24+ minutes again - and he’s hit this mark in all 5 playoff games where he’s played 23+ mins.

Ant must be super aggressive if MIN wants to avoid elimination and think this is still factoring in the L10 average 3PA with Game 1’s spike in 12 attempts inflating the line. If we remember, Edwards was gassed by the end of the 3rd quarter guarding Kyrie all game, and adjustments being off-ball is bringing him energy to create downhill. Since then, it’s noticeably gone down each game from 7 3PA to last game’s 2 3PA. As mentioned previously, guarding low usage players has allowed Ant to be a lot more aggressive and decisive in driving, getting to the line and because of that he’s seeing his average drives go from 15.5 the first 2 games to :rocket:28.0 in the most recent one. And with Dereck Lively out of the game, it’s a no-brainer to take a chance and switch on Gafford in PnR coverages. Mavs defenders are quick to contest at the perimeter and Ant gets his 3’s from transition or from pull-up (67% of attempts) - where the Mavs are the 2nd best overall playoff for this playtype + allow the 2nd fewest 3PT Pull-Up volume (Remember we faded Harden’s 3PA vs. them). For tonight, I’m projected at 3-7 3PA from Ant Man. He has a 72.7% hit rate in games playing 35+ MIN w/ the starters when seeing this volume: 16/22 hit rate. Ant’s prediction for KAT was that “he wants to make 8 3PM” so volume can come there. #PlayerProps

#Tailing @PropBomb

9 rebound on team-high 17 rebound chances last game. New defensive assignment changing from primary point of attack to helper as a low man in PnR coverages. He essentially went from “I want Kyrie” to now guarding Derrick Jones Jr. for 64% of the time in Game 3. And now because DJJ is a low-usage player, this has helped him conserve energy on offense, where he’ll need to play 40+ minutes in an elimination game. Over the L30 games, DAL averages 6th most REB vs. SG as compared to the 2nd fewest REB vs. C. Copy + paste from the last series, we saw the same strategy with SGA manning the DJJ assignment and he averages 8.0 RPG because of it. And like Chet, Gobert will have trouble converting on his rebound chance if he’s involved in Luka’s PnR or boxing out Gafford down low to contest looks. In the end, Ant should benefit. #PlayerProps

@JoeDellera

Going down with the ship, square edition. Elimination game Ant w/ more open paint now that Lively is hurt

#Tailing @TheBMatt

Anderson has hit this line in his last 8 games against the Mavericks, racking up 17, 8, 11, 8, 8, 13, 12, 12 P+A in those games.

12 or more in all 3 games this series (18, 12, 19) and now that Lively is out, Edwards should see an uptick in rebound chances. All attention on Ant, which means he’ll still have to distribute given his oft-double teamed nature from DAL

My Game Guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves-vs-dallas-mavericks-game-4-prediction-nba-expert-pick-odds-tuesday-may-28

#Tailing @TheBMatt