Air Force (3-7, 1-4 MWC) travels to take on Nevada (3-8, 0-5 MWC) in Mountain West Conference action on Saturday, November 23rd. This game kicks off at 10:30 PM ET and can be seen live on FS1.
Nevada is listed as a 3.5-point favorite in the contest, with a total set at 44.5.
The Pack are looking to wrap up their home finale before squaring off with UNLV in the battle for the Fremont Cannon next week.
Air Force is riding high off a two-game win streak and seeks to continue its recent winning ways.
Let's see where the betting value lies in my Air Force vs. Nevada predictions and college football picks.
Air Force vs Nevada Prediction
- Air Force vs Nevada Pick: Air Force +3.5
My Air Force vs Nevada best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Air Force vs Nevada Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Air Force vs Nevada Point Spread: Air Force +3.5 (-110) · Nevada -3.5 (-110)
- Air Force vs Nevada Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Air Force vs Nevada Moneyline: Air Force +140 · Nevada -165
Air Force vs Nevada Preview
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: A Late Season Surge
Air Force has looked like a completely different football team in the last two weeks from what we saw in the first eight games of the season.
The offense has finally started playing competent football and it starts with two key factors. The offensive line has found an attitude and has played with significantly more energy and purpose the past couple of times out.
It was stunning to see the Flyboys' OL unit get whipped upfront time and time again by the weak defensive fronts they have faced this year to what we've seen the past two weeks.
The second key factor has been getting the fullback dive humming again. Dylan Carson has 370 yards on the season and 217 of them have come the last two weeks.
This offense is predicated on getting the fullback dive and QB midline game going and Air Force has finally found it.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: An Unlucky Pack of Wolves
Nevada is fresh off a bye and a really impressive showing last time out in a 28-21 loss at Boise State two weeks ago.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been really solid at quarterback while leading the team in passing and rushing yardage this year.
While the wins have not piled up this year, Nevada has been much more competitive under first-year head coach Jeff Choate and has put a scare in several stronger teams this year.
This will be a test for this Nevada rush defense this week against Air Force, who runs the ball at a top-two rate.
Air Force vs Nevada
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Air Force and Nevada match up statistically:
Air Force Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 130 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 121 | |
Nevada Offense vs. Air Force Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 76 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 101 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 124 | 134 |
| Middle 8 | 130 | 82 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.6 (117) | 29.6 (116) |
| Rush Rate | 79% (2) | 58% (35) |
Air Force vs Nevada Pick & Prediction
I am once again rolling with the Flyboys in this matchup. Grab +3.5.
Air Force should be able to run the ball here against a Nevada front seven that has allowed 203 yards and 4.9 yards per carry on the ground the last four weeks.
While the season-long metrics look rough for Air Force, the past two weeks have seen this offense move it on the ground for 614 yards with 47 first downs. The Falcons have executed well in short-yardage situations, converting 18/31 third downs and 6/7 fourth down attempts.
Defensively, Nevada gives up 49.3% of third down attempts against them and the strength of this defense is in the secondary. Air Force rarely passes the ball, so this strength will be somewhat neutralized in this matchup.
Nevada has been much more competent on offense this year, with Lewis operating the attack. The ground game uses several ball carriers to share the load. Air Force has a stout run defense that ranks 11th in Defensive Rush Play Explosiveness surrendered and 28th in EPA Per Rush.
The Flyboys play sound assignment football and rarely get beat deep over the top. The Falcons' defense requires you to execute on every play and put together long-time consuming drives while being sound on third down. Nevada has struggled in standard downs, ranking just 110th in Standard Down EPA Per Play and 97th in Standard Down Success Rate. If there is any drop in execution or Havoc plays allowed, converting third and long will be difficult for the Wolf Pack.
Nevada has battled injuries at key positions on offense as running backs Savion Red and Patrick Garwo continue to be sidelined. The Pack rushing attack has been held under 100 yards as a team in three of the last four games and I don’t see the ground game improving here. Nevada is going to have to be able to throw the ball here in order to move it and the Flyboys have the advantage there.
This is just a difficult matchup for Nevada based on how Air Force is playing. Three weeks ago, I would have suggested that this would be a Nevada win, but this has been a completely different football team for Air Force the last two weeks and I am riding them again this week. Take the 3.5 and dabble on the money line as well, as I believe Air Force will win this game outright.
Pick: Air Force +3.5
Air Force vs Nevada Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Air Force vs Nevada will be played at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nevada, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 10:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
Air Force vs Nevada Betting Trends
Air Force vs Nevada Weather
