We've got some late-night Mountain West football on deck for Saturday as the Air Force Falcons (4-7) travel to San Diego, California, to play the San Diego State Aztecs (3-8).
The Falcons have revived their season with tremendous performances lately and have a chance to earn a bid into bowl season by earning their fifth victory and having a high enough APR ranking.
Meanwhile, it's been a lost season in Aztec land, but Senior Night will likely juice up any team regardless of their win/loss record. Oddsmakers have the Falcons as 3.5-point favorites, and the total is 43.5.
Let's dive into the matchup breakdown between the Falcons and Aztecs on Saturday Night in this Mountain West regular-season finale. Here are my Air Force vs San Diego State predictions and college football picks.
Air Force vs San Diego State Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
- Air Force vs San Diego Point Spread: Air Force -4 (-108) · San Diego +4 (-112)
- Air Force vs San Diego Total: Over/Under 43.5
- Air Force vs San Diego Moneyline: Air Force -175 · San Diego +145
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Dominant Ground Game
Something clicked for the Falcons in their matchup against Fresno State a few weeks ago, and they have looked sharp ever since.
With a bowl bid on the horizon, there should be no lack of motivation on Saturday night.
The rushing attack was less sharp early on, but that has quickly changed. The Falcons are averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground in their last three wins, and they are set up with another terrific matchup against an awful Aztec rush defense.
The defensive side of the ball has also improved despite being outgained in total yardage by the Wolfpack last week. They shut out the Oregon State Beavers two weeks ago and completely stifled the Fresno State offense for most of the game a few weeks back.
The matchup against the Aztecs on the defensive side of the ball is another plus matchup, as they've struggled offensively all season long. There is no questioning who the better squad is right now, as the Falcons should control the clock for most of the game and be effective with their rushing attack.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Struggle to Finish Lost Season
It's been a lost season in San Diego as the Aztecs are crawling to the finish line. The team has yet to establish an identity, and its fast offensive tempo has been ineffective due to its lack of success.
It's a dreadful matchup for the Aztecs, especially with their pathetic rush defense. They have one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, which will correlate to many long drives for the Falcons' offense.
Their defensive stuff rate ranks amongst the worst teams in the nation, so there is no reason to think that will suddenly change against a service academy offense. They could better limit pass explosives, but there will be other factors here.
They do not create havoc and have been abused in early down situations, so it would not be surprising to see the offense on the field for only 20 minutes on Saturday. It's Senior Night, but it's tough to gauge how much motivation they have, considering there is no path to a bowl game.
The Aztecs were embarrassed by Utah State last week, which leads me to believe they have quit. I wouldn't expect anything different here, so I can't take the points with the Aztecs at home.
Air Force vs San Diego State Pick & Prediction
The Aztecs are at a big disadvantage against the Falcons' rushing attack, a vital aspect of the handicap. The Falcons can sustain long, booming drives using their ground attack, as the Aztecs rank outside the top 90 nationally in Finishing and Quality Drives Allowed.
San Diego State ranks outside the top 110 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards. Considering the Aztecs' offense ranks 18th in seconds per play, we may see it briefly on the field throughout the game.
The Falcons defensively are slightly vulnerable to pass and rush explosives, but they've been playing much better lately. They will control the clock for most of the game, limiting the opportunities for the defense to get exposed.
The Aztecs' offense also ranks outside the top 110 nationally in Finishing and Quality Drives, so their only path to a cover is multiple explosive plays that result in touchdowns. I do not envision that happening, especially given the locker room's mental state.
It's not even close to anointing the Falcons as the more motivated team, so I expect a fiery effort from them. I don't love laying the points with the Falcons at the current market price.
I will target their team total over instead.
The Falcons should generate a ton of success with their ground attack, and the Aztec defense is prone to allowing a lot of explosives in that area.
They are snails on offense, but considering the Aztecs are up-tempo, they should get extra possessions on offense. I fear a backdoor cover from the Aztecs, so I feel much more assertive about their team total than laying the points on the road.
Pick: Air Force Team Total Over 23.5 (-125)
Air Force vs San Diego State Betting Trends
Air Force vs San Diego State Weather
