Friday College Football Picks, Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Black Friday always gives us some incredible college football action, and today is no exception.
Today marks the biggest Friday slate of the season with double-digit games set to kick off.
Our college football writers came through with six best bets for Friday's college football slate, including picks for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, San Jose State vs. Stanford, Navy vs. East Carolina and more.
Continue reading for all six college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Friday, Nov. 29.
Navy vs. East Carolina Best Bet
Do you know which current head coach has the best career winning percentage? It’s not Kirby Smart. It’s not Curt Cignetti. It's East Carolina’s Blake Harrell.
After firing Mike Houston on Oct. 20, the Pirates are 4-0 since Harrell, the defensive coordinator, took over as interim head coach. This week, ECU announced it's removing the interim tag, and he will be the head coach moving forward.
The Pirates also switched quarterbacks to Katin Houser, and the offense has taken off. He has 16 touchdown passes in five games as a starter and is averaging over 300 yards per game.
He has a really talented receiving room to work and a run game that has really gotten things going of late.
The Pirates have rushed for over 200 yards in each of the last four games, and they have 11 rushing scores in that stretch.
Rahjai Harris is averaging 7.0 yards per carry since Harrell took over. ECU has averaged 45.8 points per game since Harrell took over, and it has over 500 total yards in all four games with him as a coach.
Navy got off to a great start, beginning the year 6-0 and was being talked about as an AAC title team with a possible College Football Playoff path.
Now, it has lost three of its last four games, and quarterback Blake Horvath is playing through multiple injuries.
The Midshipmen defense can't stop the run, ranking 111th in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed.
East Carolina’s strength is its run defense. It ranks fifth in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Pirates are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
ECU will find more success on the ground in this matchup, and Houser is playing much better than the hobbled Horvath.
The Pirates have a ton of momentum right now, are playing with confidence, and will surely be fired up about Harrell being named the next head coach. Expect East Carolina to keep things rolling to finish the season.
Pick: East Carolina -2.5 or Better
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Navy vs. East Carolina Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
I love East Carolina this week in its home finale against Navy.
There's a significant motivational factor here with ECU announcing that interim head coach Blake Harrell has been selected for the permanent position. The players are thrilled, and there's a significant buzz around the program with the decision.
East Carolina has been surging under the watchful eye of Harrell, as the Pirates are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread over the last four weeks.
The ECU offense has racked up at least 500 yards in each of the last four games and is averaging 46 points per game during that stretch. Quarterback Katin Houser has complete control of the offense, and the ground game is averaging nearly six yards per carry over the last month.
After a magical start to the season for the Midshipmen, Navy has lost its mojo on offense and defense. The last time out against Tulane was the crater point, as the Navy offense achieved just 113 total yards and eight first downs.
Navy quarterback Blake Horvath may not be fully healthy, and he has been largely ineffective since the loss against Notre Dame.
ECU is going to have significant advantages on both sides of the ball here. The offense is unbelievably explosive, and Navy has given up explosive plays defensively far too frequently in the last four games. The Mids are just 95th in overall explosiveness alloowed and 106th in standard down explosiveness.
Defensively, ECU has an extremely underrated front seven that's extremely tough against the run. The Pirates rank fifth nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush allowed and seventh in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Navy has been much less explosive on offense in recent weeks and is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry on the ground in its last four games. The offense hasn't been scoring nearly as many points with Horvath hurt, and I can see the Mids being limited here.
This is a spot ECU will show up in, and I struggle to see where Navy matches the motivation. ECU has the schematic and talent edges on defense and should win this game.
Pick: East Carolina ML -115 (Play to -122)
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Best Bet
Enjoy a PRO System special, on me.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Friday is the windiest game we’ve tracked all week.
The early-morning clash is one of two games with notable gusts, featuring wind speeds averaging close to 20 mph.
Our "Windy Unders PRO System" reveals a strong advantage for games with certain thresholds, and here’s where it gets even better.
Action Network Director of Subscription PJ Walsh has a “cold” windy unders model, which shows a win rate of around 60% when these windy games are also at certain temperatures — just like we’re seeing for Miami vs. Bowling Green.
Pick: Under 39.5 (Play to 39)
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Ball State vs. Ohio Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Ohio is locked in and in position to punch its ticket to Detroit as a participant in the MAC Championship next week. Ohio hasn't won the MAC title since 1967, and the team is peaking at the right time.
Over the last four weeks, the Bobcats have outscored opponents, 37-8, and have allowed just 17 points combined in the last three weeks.
Ball State has been explosive against the lower-rated defenses in the MAC this season, but the Cardinals have looked very average against teams not willing to participate in a MACtion track meet.
Last week against Bowling Green, the Falcons completely shut down the Ball State attack and limited it to just 254 yards and 15 first downs.
Ball State won't run the ball effectively here and is averaging just 109 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry on the season.
The Bobs' front seven is stout and holds conference foes to just 2.9 yards per carry for the season. I expect the Ohio defensive line to take over here in early downs and force several unfavorable third-down situations for Ball State.
Ball State struggles to protect the quarterback and has allowed 28 sacks and 68 tackles for loss. The Cardinals rank 128th nationally in Havoc Allowed, which will be a problem in this game.
Ohio has registered 26 sacks and 73 TFLs on the year. I would expect it to play in the Ball State backfield often.
Offensively, Ohio is going to pound the rock and be methodical on offense. Three of the last four games have seen 40-plus rushing attempts for Ohio, and the Bobs' offensive line is surging right now.
I would expect Ohio to dominate the time of possession and salt this game away in the second half.
Ohio has a superior red-zone defense allowing just 15-of-28 possessions against it to result in a touchdown. Its third-down defense has been elite, and third down has been an area of struggle for Ball State all year.
Trust the Bobs run game and stout defense in this one. Ball State will struggle to score here.
Pick: Ball State Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Best Bet
This boils down to two things: vibes and the Egg Bowl.
Ole Miss is down bad. We’re not even a week removed from Jaxson Dart crying, and Lane Kiffin is busy taking cheap shots at the ACC and Big 12 from behind a lectern.
On a more practical standpoint, the Rebels saw center Reece McIntyre leave with an injury against Florida. McIntyre is probable for this game, but the Rebels really struggled to protect Dart in the short time without their starting center, so if McIntyre is less than 100%, the Ole Miss offense won’t likely be as effective as usual.
Mississippi State has done nothing well this season, but it’s also avoided complete blowouts like this spread anticipates.
Only Arkansas beat the Bulldogs by a number as big as this spread, and that includes a schedule that featured Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee.
Finally, things get weird in the Egg Bowl.
Nothing ever unfolds like it should, and these games are typically close. The last five iterations of this rivalry have been decided by an average of six points.
Throw in the fact that Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby used to be Kiffin’s offensive coordinator, and I’m not so sure the Rebels will be hell-bent on beating an old colleague by four touchdowns.
Pick: Mississippi State +26 or Better
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Stanford vs. San Jose State Best Bet
By Greg Liodice
I’m so fascinated with the San Jose State Spartans.
One of college football's sneaky picks all season has now fallen twice in a row to a pair of the Mountain West elite — both at home. Well, they now have a chance to rectify it as the Stanford Cardinal (3-8, 2-6 ACC) come into town.
For a sixth straight season, the Trees will not be making an appearance at a bowl game. But can they hand the Spartans a third consecutive loss to cap off their season?
The numbers don’t seem to be in favor.
San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget is far from perfect. He came in midseason to replace Emmett Brown and has been OK at best, struggling with pass efficiency and limiting turnovers. If there were anything I’d be concerned about for him, it’s handing the ball directly to the defense.
He was abhorrent against UNLV last week, with a mind-boggling 4-of-22 day, but we’ll give him a one-time pass due to the Rebels’ exceptional pass defense.
Nick Nash is among one of the more dynamic receivers in the country, leading all receivers in receptions and is four yards away from leading in yards gained.
Luckily for the Spartans, Stanford is a bottom-10 program against the pass. It allows the eighth-most passing yards per game and ranks 110th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Stanford isn’t great on the offensive end either, and it plays perfectly into the Spartans’ game. San Jose State ranks 30th in Havoc, eighth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 15th in Passing Down Success Rate allowed.
With ball hawks in Robert Rahimi and DJ Harvey in the secondary, I expect Ashton Daniels, who has had efficiency issues, to have trouble.
I expect the spread to rise, so take -2.5 as soon as you can. I don’t foresee this game being close.
Pick: San Jose State -2.5 (Play to -5.5)
