Welcome to college football Week 5.
We have a loaded slate on Saturday, featuring games like Georgia vs. Alabama in the SEC, Illinois vs. Penn State in the Big Ten and Arizona vs. Utah in the Big 12.
Luckily, we have plenty of action to hold us over until those games, and it all starts with the noon slate.
Our college football writers came through with four NCAAF best bets for Saturday's noon games, including picks for Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State, Michigan vs. Minnesota and UAB vs. Navy.
Check out all four of our college football best bets and expert picks for the noon slate on Saturday, Sept. 28 below.
College Football Best Bets: Noon Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of noon NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
| 12 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Best Bet
Alan Bowman played about as poorly as he could have last Saturday in the Cowboys’ loss to Utah.
Fortunately for him and the Pokes’ offense, the Kansas State quarters defense will be a much different style than the Cover 1 stacked box Utah threw at him.
Bowman should have many more opportunities to find guys like Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens down the field, and maybe that can finally lead to some rushing lanes for Ollie Gordon II.
On the other side of the ball, Avery Johnson continues to struggle with accuracy, making the Wildcats’ offense totally one dimensional.
Despite being on the field for nearly 42 minutes against Utah, the Cowboy defense held up in the heat and was much better against the run following the Arkansas game.
This is also a classic Mike Gundy bounce back spot, and the Pokes know a second conference loss would all but end their chances of making the Big 12 title game.
Expect their best effort, so give me the Cowboys catching the points.
Pick: Oklahoma State +5
| | | |
Minnesota vs. Michigan Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
Michigan returns to the Big House to host the Minnesota Golden Gophers, a program that’s spiraling quickly.
Minnesota has been awful against the run, and it’s getting worse. Last week, the Gophers allowed Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to pop off for 206 yards on 21 carries with three touchdowns.
That’s music to Sherrone Moore’s ears, as he has a quarterback that simply can’t throw the ball.
That didn’t matter against USC, as the Wolverines methodically marched the ball down the field with Kalel Mullings on the final drive of the game.
The reality is, this year’s version of the Michigan Wolverines is a lot like Iowa, just with more NFL talent on defense. That’s a terrifying concept for Minnesota, which just got trounced by 17 points in its own stadium to a much less talented Hawkeyes team.
Minnesota’s only strength may be rendered useless here. The Golden Gophers rank third nationally in opposing pass success. Michigan may not need to throw the ball here to win big. It’ll dominate the line of scrimmage and force plenty of three-and-outs when it finds itself on defense.
Expect the Wolverines to open this up in the fourth quarter and win comfortably, likely by more than Iowa beat Minnesota last week.
Pick: Michigan -10 (Play to -12)
Navy vs. UAB Best Bet #1
This may be the fastest Service Academy team we’ve seen in years. Is that because Drew Cronic’s offensive system is allowing the Midshipmen to play faster, or have they simply recruited speed?
It’s a bit of both, and the end result has been film that looks a whole lot more like a Power Four team than a plucky Group of Five upstart.
Even Trent Dilfer agrees.
“Navy has great team speed, not good, great … hell they have offensive linemen that can run,” Dilfer said on Monday at his weekly presser.
This team speed allows the Midshipmen to hit big plays left and right. Navy is pummeling teams with offensive haymakers, averaging three plays of 40+ yards from scrimmage per game.
No team in the country can match that level of explosiveness.
During their torpedoing of Memphis, they ran up 566 total yards of offense.
The running game has added Wing T principles to the traditional triple option, and the results have been jaw-dropping. Navy is top-10 in rushing yards, but more importantly, it’s eighth in yards per carry at a whopping 6.45 per clip.
And when the Midshipmen turn to the air, they’ve been even more deadly.
Navy’s starting quarterback Blake Horvath is leading the nation in QBR. His 12.5 yards per attempt average beats out players in the Heisman race like Miami’s Cam Ward and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe.
His 13.5 aDOT demonstrates that if you crowd the box to stop the run, you’ll have Navy backs and receivers running wild, deep in your secondary.
UAB already struggles to contain the run, so this will likely be another showcase game for the Navy offense. This bet will come down to UAB’s offense and its ability to keep up.
P.J. Volker, Navy’s DC, cooked up a perfect game plan last fall in Annapolis when the Blazers came calling. He walked defenders up in his secondary, daring Jacob Zeno to beat them over the top.
Zeno was unable to do so, finishing with just 206 passing yards and two interceptions during a 31-6 Navy blowout. It was UAB’s worst performance on offense all season long, marking the only time it failed to reach 20 points in 2023.
Not only is this my best bet of Saturday, but I would advocate for an alt line here as well. If you move the spread to Navy-6.5, you get a +125 return on your investment.
Pick: Navy -3.5 (Play to -6.5)
| | | |
Navy vs. UAB Best Bet #2
Don’t look now, but this Navy offense has been fantastic. The Midshipmen are 21st in the country in offensive success rate and have actually been better through the air than on the ground. They rank 10th in the country, averaging 7.6 yards per play.
Navy threw for over 200 yards passing last week against Memphis and quarterback Blake Horvath added 211 yards rushing, as well. He had six total touchdowns in the upset win.
Horvath runs this triple option with two terrific backs in Alex Tecza and Daba Fofana, who are both averaging over 6.1 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Horvath is averaging 10.8 yards per carry and over 120 yards per game.
Navy is going to run the ball down UAB’s throat in this one, and the Blazers rank 110th in the country in rushing success rate. It’s their biggest weakness. They’re allowing 4.7 yards per attempt and nearly 200 yards per game on the ground to their opponents.
While Navy also has its issues defending the run, UAB can’t run the ball. Teams are figuring out that Jacob Zeno is incapable of pushing the ball down the field, and he won’t be able to dink-and-dunk on this Midshipmen defense.
When Trent Dilfer faced this triple option attack last season, the Blazers were blown out 31-6 by a Navy team that wasn’t very good. The Mids rushed for 270 yards in the game and averaged 6.4 yards per play.
It was the most points Navy scored all season, and UAB was held to its lowest point total of the year.
Navy’s ability to pop explosive passes to keep defenses honest makes it incredibly difficult to defend, and I don’t trust Dilfer and his coaching staff to figure out how to stop it.
A team that ranks 119th in Line Yards and 112th in tackling isn’t going to have a good time against this Navy team.
Pick: Navy -3.5 (Play to -6)
