College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Saturday Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Can you believe it’s already Week 11?
Time flies, but the show must go on. Our staff of experts has cooked up three college football best bets and college football picks for the noon slate of games on Saturday, Nov. 9.
We’re targeting 3 sides in Navy vs. USF, Syracuse vs. Boston College and Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee.
Make sure you also check out our best bets for the afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
 |  |  |
Navy vs. USF Best Bet & Pick
By Doug Ziefel
If you hadn't noticed, the Navy Midshipmen have set sail in the AAC this season.
They opened up the season 6-0 as their revolutionized Wing-T offense has given opposing defenses fits.
They come into this matchup having dropped their last two but are in a tremendous spot to bounce back.
They will be up against South Florida and a defense has provided little resistence this season, ranking 105th nationally in points per game allowed and 124th in yards per game allowed.
The key for the Navy to get back on track is to improve on the defensive side of the football. The Midshipmen have been great against the pass, ranking 55th in Pass Success Rate allowed, but they have struggled to stop the rush.
Although, along with struggles defensively, the South Florida Bulls have been far from efficent offensively. They rank 121st in Success Rate and just 59th in yards per rush while deploying a balanced offensive attack.
If the Midshipmen can string together stops, they will be able to pull away, as their methodical drives will put points on the board and keep the Bulls off the field.
Back the Midshipmen to get back in the win column and cover the spread in the process.
Pick: Navy -3 (Play to -3.5)
| | |
Syracuse vs. Boston College Best Bet & Pick
I’ve enjoyed backing Syracuse this season.
The Orange’s pro-style offense is fun to watch. Kyle McCord to Oronde Gadsen reminds me of Brady to Gronk. LeQuint Allen is a legit running back.
But it’s time for some regression. Syracuse is 4-1 in one-possession games, 2-0 in overtime, and 14-for-19 on fourth downs. The close-game luck is bound to flip.
The Orange picked up a crazy overtime win last week against Virginia Tech despite being out-gained by 45 yards.
While Syracuse is likely gassed, Boston College hasn’t played in 15 days.
Hopefully, the extra rest means quarterback Thomas Castellanos is ready to roll. He’s among the most explosive passers in the FBS when healthy, especially with his legs and when throwing off play-action – he ranks 12th in play-action YPA among qualified FBS quarterbacks (11.3).
Syracuse’s defensive line is weak, so I’m hopeful the Eagles will establish the run. The Orange’s secondary is hapless, ranking 107th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and 90th in EPA per Pass allowed, so I’m more than hopeful that Castellanos will capitalize on ample downfield opportunities.
Syracuse is bound to drop a close game. Why not on the road against a rested Boston College squad? I have a good feeling that Castellanos will out-duel McCord.
Pick: Boston College ML (Play to ML -130)
| | |
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Liberty is on the ropes and really needs a win to get their season back on track.
Middle Tennessee is among the nation's worst defenses, and the metrics across the board support that. Liberty will have advantages in the trenches and should gash the Blue Raiders in the run game — I wouldn't be shocked if the Flames eclipsed 300 rushing yards on Saturday.
The Raiders rank dead last nationally in EPA per Play allowed and 120th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
That's the type of defense that Liberty needs to face to break out offensively and get the season back on track.
The Blue Raiders can't run the ball (79 rush yards per game at 2.8 YPC) and the offensive line can't protect quarterback Nicholas Vattiato (23 sacks). The Flames should bring pressure at the point of attack and force the Blue Raiders into plenty of third-and-long situations.
I'm laying it with the Flames.
Pick: Liberty -10.5 (Play to -13)
