Bad beats are bound to happen over the course of a season.
Last week, FAU erased a 21-point second-half deficit and grabbed the lead in the fourth quarter, only to give up a 70-yard touchdown pass and a game-winning field goal at the buzzer in the final minutes.
My over call in Georgia Southern-Texas State suffered an even worse fate. With the game sitting at 45-24 in the closing minutes, all we needed was one more score. Georgia Southern drove the ball inside the Bobcats’ red zone, only to fumble at the five-yard line. Thems the breaks, as they say.
This week, I’m targeting some feisty underdogs and a team whose bowl dreams aren’t dead yet.
North Texas vs. SMU
Allow me to introduce you to the King of Garbage Time, Chandler Rogers.
The North Texas quarterback has been playing at an elite level in AAC play, particularly in the fourth quarter of games. As a result, his conference stats are magnificent. He’s accounted for 18 total touchdowns against just two turnovers in AAC play. And his offense is averaging 14.4 points per game in the fourth quarter against AAC foes.
Overall, this unit is cooking and has cracked the top 10 in total offense (ninth) and plays generated from scrimmage that go for 20 or more yards (10th).
The Mean Green are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in conference play, and now there's a good chance that SMU star quarterback Preston Stone will be held out of this game due to a concussion.
Confirmation that Stone was in the concussion protocol is crucial because the Ponies are playing on a short week, giving him even less time to receive clearance from the medical staff.
Stone has been locked in the past month, averaging 324 total yards per game while accounting for 12 total touchdowns. His backup, Kevin Jennings, is a redshirt freshman with zero career starts and just 42 career attempts.
Stone is still listed as questionable as of writing, so I would grab this number before it inches closer to 14.
Play: North Texas +17 (Play to 15.5)
UAB vs. Navy
The Blazers have proven to be a good home team (3-2 SU and ATS), with an above-average offense that ranks 18th in Success Rate this season.
But when they take their show on the road, things have gotten ugly. UAB is 0-4 SU away from Birmingham, and it's given up 43.5 points per game in those spots. Its defense makes it a fade candidate in Week 11.
The UAB defense is atrocious, ranking dead last in overall Success Rate and dead last in Success Rate against the run. Teams are running for 200 yards per game against the Blazers and have punched in 26 scores.
Their defensive line, which was once viewed as a lone strength coming into the season, is getting bullied. And now here comes a triple-option attack that has generated 240 or more rushing yards against three AAC opponents already this season.
I anticipate Navy stringing together a few 10-play drives in this game while punching holes in this UAB defense with relative ease.
What this play will come down to is the Navy defense, which is stout on the ground and leaky against the pass. The Midshipmen have contained explosive offenses from Memphis and North Texas this season, which gives me hope they can do the same to Jacob Zeno and the UAB attack.
Trent Dilfer’s team went into a deep freeze in its last game before the final two drives, so Navy can slow it down in this one.
The Midshipmen still have the chance to go bowling if they win out, which should translate to an inspired effort at home. I would play this down to a pick'em.
Play: Navy +2.5 (Play to PK)
San Diego State vs. Colorado State
Here’s another program with a chance to reach six wins and a bowl invitation if everything breaks right down the stretch.
Colorado State has shown significant improvement in Jay Norvell’s second season in Fort Collins. While its 3-6 record belies that Year 2 glow-up, the signs are there.
The Rams are dangerous through the air with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi calling the shots. As a freshman, he flashes all-conference potential but forces the ball three or four times per game as well. As a result, this is a boom-or-bust attack.
When BFN is locked in, the Rams can soar (ninth in passing offense), and when he’s reckless, he can give a game away (107th in INT rate).
On the other side of the field are the San Diego State Aztecs, a team that;s cratering. Marshall Faulk’s alma mater fields one of the worst offenses in America.
The Aztecs rank 132nd in offensive explosiveness, and they simply can’t pass with a converted safety at quarterback.
But what’s more shocking is that their defense has bottomed out. This was one of the best Group of Five defenses for years, and now they’re 128th in Success Rate with everyone killing them on the ground. Opposing ball-carriers are averaging 4.75 yards per carry (108th).
The Rams have been close to putting it all together in recent weeks. They’ve played three straight bowl teams in UNLV, Air Force and Wyoming. They suffered a walk-off loss to UNLV, were tied with Air Force at half and came within nine points of Wyoming in defeat.
The defense is improving and a final stretch of SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii provides hope that this could all end in a 6-6 campaign and a bowl bid.
I’m buying low on Colorado State.
Play: Colorado State -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
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