College football Week 12 is here, so ilet's dive into our favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday, Nov. 16. For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, Collin hit Kansas over Iowa State in a spot we both loved, while Nort Texas did me in against Army. Either way, it's on to Week 12.
This week, Collin's heading to the Mountain West, where he's taking Air Force to beat Oregon State outright in a spot I also endorse. Meanwhile, I'm taking Old Dominion to topple James Madison in a Sun Belt showdown.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at just over 4-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 12.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 10-12, +2.38 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 12
Collin Wilson: Air Force +135 vs. Oregon State
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | +135 |
I'm going to go with Air Force here in our moneyline underdog parlay.
Quarterback Quentin Hayes has taken over this team, and he can run this offense much better.
Air Force boasts an efficient triple-option offense, and head coach Troy Calhoun and back Dylan Carson respect him as the field general.
I just cannot get over Oregon State defensive coordinator Keith Heyward. He has zero experience against the triple and is just now trying to learn how to defend it.
Plus, the Beavers' run defense has been dreadful all season. Oregon State ranks 121st in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 105th in Defensive Line Yards. It also can't play in the backfield here, as it comes into the game at 107th in Havoc.
That's a terrible recipe against such a unique offense with a unit that's trending up.
Give me the Falcons here to score an upset over their Pac-2 foe.
Stuckey: Old Dominion ML +120 vs. James Madison
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +120 |
The Monarchs have been much better than I expected, especially since Colton Joseph took over at quarterback.
Four of their five losses have come by one possession, including an early season eye-opening performance at South Carolina in a four-point defeat. They also have a very impressive road win at Bowling Green.
The offensive line is still really poor, but the scheme under offensive coordinator Kevin Decker more than makes up for those deficiencies up front.
This also looks like a good time to fade the Dukes after two blowout wins against two very bad teams in Southern Miss and Georgia State in one of the best situational spots of the season that I can't believe I missed last week.
While the Dukes were coming off of a bye, Georgia State was playing its fourth straight road game. You don't see that too often.
Meanwhile, Old Dominion lost its most recent game at Appalachian State despite finishing with nearly 500 yards of total offense (+98 net) primarily due to a -3 turnover margin.
Plus, the Monarchs' run defense is very stout, which is the key to slowing down a JMU offensive attack that doesn't have a consistent enough passing attack to exploit the ODU back end.
While Alonza Barnett's numbers look great on the surface (21 touchdowns and three interceptions), he's really regressed since a hot start, as teams have tape on him and this offense.
Through his first four games, he had 11 Big-Time Throws to just three Turnover-Worthy Plays, but he's put up just a 1:1 ratio (6:6) since through five league games.
The JMU defense definitely has teeth, but it has really benefited from that aforementioned schedule and turnover luck. Plus, I think the best way to attack this unit is to spread it out, which ODU does as much as any team in the country.
While the records might indicate a big gap between these two clubs, I don't really see it. Keep in mind Old Dominion has had a significantly more difficult schedule (70th vs. 129th).
