College football Week 5 is upon us, and there are a lot of intriguing underdogs on the board.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate. Welcome to our Week 4 moneyline underdog picks.
In Week 4, we went 1-1. Rutgers got home for Collin with a road win over Virginia Tech, while East Carolina once again lost a 17-point lead and fell to Liberty to prevent us from sweeping the board.
This week, I'm taking UAB against Navy in a rare bad spot for a service academy, while Collin takes Auburn over Oklahoma in a new SEC showdown. Nothing like a pair of Alabama teams playing in their home state.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at over 3-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 5.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 4-4, +2.48 units
Stuckey: UAB ML +150 vs. Navy
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
Believe it or not, Navy sits atop the AAC standings (along with Army) at 2-0, while UAB has yet to play a conference game. However, the Blazers' first league game of 2024 does come in a pretty good spot on paper.
Service academies aren't as likely to fall victim to certain situational spots as other schools. They usually just show up each week and handle their business.
However, this spot is too good to pass up since the line has risen from a PK on the open (which I thought was fair) out past a field goal.
Navy heads south to Birmingham for a noon kick one week after pulling off a huge, emotional upset over Memphis in a wild game that featured 100 total points.
In that victory, quarterback Blake Horvath ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns to go along with two more through the air. It was a banner day for the Navy signal-caller, who appears to be thriving in the new-look triple-option attack under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
With Air Force also on deck, there's a chance the Mids potentially come out a little flat.
Maybe even more importantly, UAB just had a bye week, which always carries more significance ahead of a matchup against a unique offensive scheme. As a result, the staff has had two weeks to analyze three game films of Navy's new offensive wrinkles.
The Blazers also faced the Navy triple-option last season in a 31-6 defeat in Annapolis in a game that was actually 10-6 in the fourth quarter before a late nuclear meltdown.
UAB looked horrid in a loss to UL Monroe but did look much better in a close loss at Arkansas, which has aged well considering the Hogs won at Auburn and should have won at Oklahoma State.
On paper, the Blazers' short-passing attack should find success against a suspect Navy defense that was just on the field for 35 minutes (rare occurrence for them) against Memphis, which racked up 659 total yards of offense.
The moneyline might actually be the better option here since Navy has kicker issues and is much more likely to go for it on fourth down, decreasing the chances that the Mids win by 1-3 points.
For what it's worth, UAB is 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) as a home 'dog since 2007, covering by an average margin of just under four points per game.
Collin Wilson: Auburn ML -110 vs. Oklahoma
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
I'm going to stay in the state of Alabama, but it has nothing to do with South Alabama or the Crimson Tide. I'm going to go with Auburn against Oklahoma.
I hate every second of this because I never wanted to back Auburn with any money, but a slew of injuries just hit. The OU availability report came in, and their receivers are absolutely crushed. Nic Anderson is out, Andrel Anthony is doubtful and Deion Burks is questionable.. Might as well be out. Deion Burks.
There are essentially no weapons around here for freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. to try to get the ball to. It's going to be the Hawkins zone read show, and I don't even know who's going to help him run the ball.
This offensive line continues to fail in creating rushing lanes for anyone on the ground, which was a big problem when OU got into scoring position against Tennessee. I don't expect that to change for the offensive line.
Oklahoma ranks 121st in Quality Drives — a drive that either features 10 plays, goes over three minutes or racks up 50 yards. I don't think that's going to improve with a freshman quarterback who doesn't have any weapons.
On the other side, Auburn had a 94% postgame win expectancy against Arkansas and had no business losing that game after putting up 7.1 yards per play.
The Tigers have also turned the ball over 14 times on the season. They're near dead last with a -10 turnover margin. So, will there be regression to what is one of the worst turnover margins in all of college football? We'll see. if they can do that.
Auburn lights up the scoreboard when it can pass the ball, and OU's defense ranks outside the top 75 in PFF coverage grading and Defensive Passing Success Rate at this point in the season.
Expect to see Payton Thorne come back and KeAndre Lambert-Smith to have a huge day. He's at 3.8 yards per route run, and OU ranks 81st in giving up explosives.
The Sooners are just really struggling to score right now, and they've lost all of their weapons for a freshman quarterback. So, as much as I dislike the Tigers, I think this is a great spot to back them as an underdog at home.
