Week 14 of the college football season is upon us. This marks the last week of the regular season before conference championships and bowl season.
No matter how many weeks are left, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is here to dish out his favorite early bet for the upcoming slate. Wilson moved to 4-0 in his early bet articles thanks to a 19-30 covering effort by USC over UCLA to take home the victory bell.
Now, it's onto Week 14.
Like all sports, grabbing the best number when lines come out is paramount when it comes to betting college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet.
Ideally, that could all be avoided by locking in the best number early in the week. That's going to be the goal for this Saturday night Mountain West matchup.
Continue reading for college football odds, NCAAF picks and early bets for Week 14.
Air Force vs. San Jose State Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -175 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +145 |
Our early bet for Week 13 cashed, as USC covered the opener against UCLA. Despite trailing heading into the fourth quarter, the Trojans emerged victorious thanks to four field goals and just two penalties for 25 yards.
The difference stemmed from USC’s ability to create methodical drives, executing 46 plays in standard downs compared to 34 from UCLA.
While USC won and covered without much closing line value, early betting continues to be profitable when a strict set of power ratings are in an investor's arsenal.
One team expected to take steam in Week 14 is Air Force.
The Falcons saw massive struggles with their triple-option offense early in the season, unable to find a quarterback who could run a fullback dive or running back pitch.
Head coach Troy Calhoun's team opened the season losing seven consecutive FBS games before turning to freshman Quentin Hayes as the starting signal-caller in Week 7 against New Mexico.
Air Force has now rattled off three consecutive wins over Fresno State, Oregon State and Nevada behind Hayes.
Quentin Hayes will not be denied! @AF_Football
📺 @CBSSportsNetpic.twitter.com/AuvAELIPkp
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) November 16, 2024
Air Force's triple option has seen an increase in its Rushing Success Rate numbers week over week. In fact, the Falcons posted a 64% Success Rate on 67 carries against Nevada in Week 13.
The Wolf Pack defensive line couldn't control the trench, allowing Air Force to convert 11-of-16 third downs from an average distance of 4.2 yards.
The Falcons have improved their rushing metrics each week under Hayes and are now a top-30 team in terms of Offensive Stuff Rate.
Calhoun will have his team prepared to reach five wins in the final week of the season. That matters because Air Force ranks ninth in the latest APR rankings, which will determine which five-win teams make a bowl if there aren't enough six-win teams.
Meanwhile, San Diego State enters Week 14 with no chance of making a bowl game. The Aztecs have lost five straight, covering only against UNLV by a half-point in that span.
Head coach Sean Lewis desperately needs a defensive reset for his 2-4-5 personnel that ranks 130th in Stuff Rate. The Aztecs, who also rank 129th in Defensive Line Yards, are now set to take on an Air Force triple option offense that sits fourth nationally in average distance before first contact.
Look for a San Diego State defense that struggles in efficiency and broken tackles allowed to end the season on a six-game losing streak.
Pick: Air Force -4 or Better
