Week 6 is in the books, and it ended with a crazy comeback by Miami to avoid an upset against Cal in Berkeley. We also saw two top-five teams go down in the SEC with No. 1 Alabama losing to Vanderbilt and No. 4 Tennessee falling to Arkansas.
Now, it's time to move on to Week 7.
It's a massive week with the headliner on Saturday night between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon in Eugene.
I see some early betting value on three games around the country: Penn State vs. USC, Old Dominion vs. Georgia State and Appalachian State vs. Louisiana.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Penn State vs. USC Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 48 -108o / -112u | -198 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 48 -108o / -112u | +164 |
Penn State vs. USC Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Penn State -6.1 | Penn State -7.2 | Penn State -8.7 |
This is a really good matchup for Penn State even if it has to travel across the country.
The Nittany Lions have taken care of business in their last two games, and their offense is really hard to get off the field. They aren't going to break off many big plays, but they rank fourth in the nation in Success Rate.
Quarterback Drew Allar has really improved from last year. He hasn't been asked to attempt more than 25 passes in a game because Penn State has simply controlled games with its rushing attack.
Allar has a PFF passing grade of 87.2 with an adjusted completion percentage of 77.6%, which puts Penn State in the top five for EPA/Pass Attempt.
The run game with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen has been really effective with both backs averaging over five yards per carry.
The offensive line has done a masterful job opening running lanes for them, as Penn State ranks 16th nationally in Offensive Line Yards.
On the other side, USC is really struggling up front, ranking 92nd in Defensive Line Yards and 100th in EPA/Rush Allowed, so the Nittany Lions will have a big advantage on the ground.
Trojans quarterback Miller Moss couldn't put it together against an elite Minnesota secondary last Saturday, throwing two interceptions while averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. That's now two games in which Moss has faced elite secondaries — Minnesota and Michigan — and hasn't found a way to consistently beat them over the top.
Well, he'll need to figure that out because USC won't find much success on the ground.
Penn State boasts one of the best defensive lines in the country, and it has shown up in a big way through its first five games. The Nittany Lions rank second nationally in Defensive Line Yards, fifth in Stuff Rate and fifth EPA/Rush Allowed, so running the ball will be tough.
All three projection models show value on the Nittany Lions, so I like the value on them at -4.
Pick: Penn State -4 (DraftKings)
Old Dominion vs. Georgia State Pick
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Old Dominion vs. Georgia State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Old Dominion -1.3 | Old Dominion -3.5 | Old Dominion -0.3 |
Should Old Dominion really be an underdog on the road here?
While the Monarchs have won only one game on the season, three of their four losses have come by one score or less.
They're coming off an outstanding offensive performance against Coastal Carolina on the road in which they put up 462 yards of total offense. However, they turned the ball over three times, which ended up being the difference.
Old Dominion has been going back and forth between two quarterbacks, but neither has been very effective. However, that won't really matter in this game because ODU will do most of its work on the ground.
The Monarchs averaged 5.5 yards per carry against Coastal Carolina this past weekend and rank top 50 nationally in explosive runs.
That's a problem because Georgia State hasn't stopped any rushing attack this season, ranking 122nd EPA/Rush Allowed. In fact, in its last game against Georgia Southern, it allowed 5.4 yards per carry to a predominately pass-happy offense.
Old Dominion's biggest advantage will be its ability to finish off scoring drives. The Monarchs rank 32nd nationally in Finishing Drives, while Georgia State comes in at 127th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Christian Veilleux has been asked to throw the ball a lot for Georgia State, but he hasn't been the most efficient quarterback thus far. He's really only effective in the short-to-intermediate passing game and has been limited when it comes to throwing the deep ball. In fact, he's averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt this season, while his ADOT is only 8.7 yards.
Georgia State's run game hasn't been that effective either. The Panthers rank 105th in EPA/Rush and got completely shut down in their previous game against Georgia Southern. They ran for a total of 15 yards on 29 carries.
Georgia State also can't put the ball in the end zone when it crosses the 40, ranking 127th in Finishing Drives.
All three projection models have Old Dominion as a favorite, so I like the value at +1.5.
Pick: Old Dominion +1.5 (Caesars)
App State vs. Louisiana Pick
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -102 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -120 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Louisiana -12.2 | Louisiana -15.7 | Louisiana -13.6 |
For a team that was supposed to be one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, Appalachian State hasn't even come close to living up to expectations. The Mountaineers have now been blown out in three of their last four games, most recently losing to Marshall on the road, 52-37.
Everything has seemingly gone wrong on the defensive side of the ball. App State has allowed 7.4 yards per play, which is the fifth-worst mark in FBS. It can't stop the run or pass, sitting outside the top 100 in both categories.
It's going to have to stop the run in this game, but I'm not sure it can.
The Mountaineers have been dominated in the trenches, ranking 128th in Defensive Line Yards while putting no pressure on the quarterback. They also sit 130th in Havoc on the season, which is the biggest key to slowing down Louisiana's offense.
The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been incredibly efficient this season. It ranks 18th in EPA/Play with the focus coming on the ground. The running back tandem of Bill Davis and Zylan Perry has been great, as both backs average over 6.5 yards per carry.
Louisiana's offensive line has been the cherry on top, sitting top-35 in Offensive Line Yards.
Quarterback Ben Wooldridge has also been really efficient when asked to throw. He has Louisiana ranking 14th in Passing Success Rate and owns a PFF passing grade of 84.3.
However, giving him a clean pocket has been a bit of a problem. The Ragin' Cajuns sit 130th in Havoc Allowed and 91st in terms of a PFF pass-blocking grade. But when Wooldridge isn't pressured, he has picked defenses apart, posting 9.2 yards per attempt with an 83.6% adjusted completion percentage.
Appalachian State has one of the worst pass rushes in the nation, so Wooldridge will shred this secondary if he has time to throw.
On the other side, App State's offense has failed to click. It fact, it comes into this matchup ranked 80th in EPA/Play.
The Mountaineers throw the ball at a high rate, but quarterback Joey Aguilar hasn't been good enough to play in that style of offense this season.
Turnovers have been the main problem. In his last three games, Aguilar has struggled under pressure while posting 10 turnover-worthy plays. In fact, he has had to throw from a crowded pocket on 28% of dropbacks and holds a PFF passing grade of 30.7 when pressured.
All three projection models show value on Louisiana, so I'd grab the lone -9.5 left in the market.
Pick: Louisiana -9.5 (FanDuel)
