Looking to add some extra value to your Saturday card? Look no further than the college football player prop market, which is filled with inefficiencies every week.
This week, our staff has found a few players whose lines don't reflect their potential production.
Our team is targeting KJ Jefferson for a big day, Garrett Greene to find the end zone, Spencer Rattler to cook and Jase McClellan to struggle.
If you want to take a shot at player props, check out our PrizePicks promo code.
College Football Player Props for Week 8
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
KJ Jefferson
Over 37.5 Rush Yards (Play to 39.5)
By Brett Pund
One of the first things I look for each week is whether Mississippi State is facing an athletic or mobile quarterback.
Regardless of how his numbers look this year, I still feel KJ Jefferson fits that bill.
This is primarily a fade of the Bulldogs defensive philosophy. Head coach and former defensive coordinator Zach Arnett plays a very aggressive 3-3-5 defense, bringing multiple linebackers on blitzes to generate pressure.
It leaves his secondary playing a lot of man coverage with no protection if a quarterback can evade pressure and scramble. This has led to quarterbacks racking up yards on the ground against MSU.
In the Week 3 loss to LSU, Jayden Daniels finished with 64 yards after he ran for 93 yards in the 2022 matchup.
Then, South Carolina's Spencer Rattler and Alabama's Jalen Milroe racked up over 38 rushing yards against MSST.
Throw in Jayden de Laura (Arizona), and the Bulldogs have allowed every opposing Power Five quarterback to eclipse 38 yards on the ground.
Meanwhile, Malik Hornsby rushed for over 100 yards for Arkansas while starting ahead of Jefferson last year, and Auburn’s Robby Ashford also topped the century mark against the Bulldogs.
If you are worried about Jefferson’s totals this year, I also like his Anytime Touchdown Scorer line (+122) at Caesars.
But, I’ll stick with my favorite bet this season until the Bulldogs prove me wrong.
Pick: Jefferson Over 37.5 Rush Yards (Play to 39.5)
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
KJ Jefferson
Over 221.5 Pass Yards (Play to 227.5)
By Cody Goggin
Mississippi State’s secondary has been among the worst in the nation this season. They rank 129th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 127th in Passing PPA allowed.
Multiple quarterbacks have thrived against the Bulldogs this year. In the five games that Mississippi State has played against FBS opponents, four have thrown for at least 262 yards, well above this line.
The only opponent that didn’t was Jalen Milroe, who only threw 12 passes. Still, He completed 10 of those for 164 yards, so it’s safe to say that he also would have had a big day if the game wasn’t a blowout.
Per Pro Football Focus, Mississippi State's coverage unit is fine, but their pass rush isn't — the Bulldogs rank 129th in PFF's Pressure grade.
The Arkansas offensive line hasn’t been great when pass-blocking this year, but they should hold up against the Bulldogs' defense. That's good, as KJ Jefferson has an 89.5 PFF Passing grade when kept clean this season.
KJ Jefferson has exceeded this total in four of seven games this season. However, this defense is not nearly on the level of a team like Alabama or Arkansas, so he should have more success here.
With Rocket Sanders out again, the Razorbacks must rely on Jefferson’s arm to put points on the board. Arkansas ranks only 84th in Passing Success Rate but 17th in Passing Explosiveness. We only need a few big plays to get Jefferson over this number.
I believe KJ Jefferson can put up numbers against this Mississippi State secondary. The main downside to this pick for me could be the lack of passing volume Jefferson would get if the Razorbacks jumped out to a big lead.
Still, this number is too low. I'd play it up to 227.5
Pick: Jefferson Over 221.5 Pass Yards (Play to 227.5)
Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Garrett Greene
Anytime Touchdown (-125 | Play to -140)
Garrett Greene has started and finished three games this season. His rushing touchdown total in those three games is five, with scores in all three.
He’s a goal-line threat thanks to offensive coordinator Chad Scott’s tendency to dial up read-option plays inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. He has multiple goal-to-go rushing touchdowns already this season. He’s also an above-average scrambler, evidenced by his 35-yard rushing touchdown against TCU.
If Oklahoma State were making life hard on opposing running games, I’d consider passing at this price point, but the Pokes can’t stop a runny nose.
The Oklahoma State run defense is giving up explosive runs left and right this season. The Cowboys are 116th nationally in Explosive rushes allowed, looking powerless against K-State's quarterback Will Howard two weeks ago. The Wildcats signal caller racked up 104 rushing yards and a score against OSU. That was the only dual threat of note they faced all season long, and they failed that test.
I foresee similar numbers and at least one score for Greene in this game.
I would play this down to -140.
Pick: Greene Anytime Touchdown (-125 · Play to -140)
South Carolina vs. Missouri
Spencer Rattler
Over 270.5 Pass Yards (Play to 282.5)
Few teams in the country right now are hotter than the Missouri Tigers.
The big reason for their surprise start is because they score points. Their sizzling quarterback, Brady Cook, ranks top 25 nationally in nearly every significant statistical category.
You're probably asking: "Hey, Tim! Why are you giving so much love to Missouri if this is supposed to be about South Carolina?!"
Because if you’re playing Mizzou, you better be able to keep up with them.
I think South Carolina can do just that.
If you haven’t been paying attention, the Gamecocks quarterback, Spencer Rattler, is quietly crushing. He’s averaging 287 passing yards per game, with 11 touchdowns, only three picks and a 73.6% completion rate.
Despite the 6-1 start and being a touchdown favorite this weekend, Missouri fans know they can’t get too comfortable. There's a sizeable elephant in the room.
That elephant is their pass defense, constantly leaving the door ajar. They rank 123rd in Standard Downs Explosivenss allowed and 81st in EPA per Pass allowed.
On paper, Rattler should be able to exploit those deficiencies.
But even if this game gets away from South Carolina, the Gamecocks will be forced to throw the ball even more.
That's the beauty of player props, baby.
Expect an old-fashioned high-scoring affair in Columbia — the Missouri one.
Pick: Rattler Over 270.5 Pass Yards (Play to 282.5)
Tennessee vs. Alabama
Jase McClellan
Under 69.5 Rush Yards (Play to 64.5)
By Greg Liodice
Alabama generally has a stout rushing game. Before this year, the Tide always emphasized rushing the rock. However, there hasn’t been much Explosiveness coming out of the backfield in Tuscaloosa.
Jase McClellan is the de-facto top back and is doing a fine job, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. But by Bama standards, it’s a bit of a disappointment.
Judging from last week against Arkansas, coach Nick Saban wants to get his other backs involved to spread the wealth. Roydell Williams has made some big plays. Jamarion Miller is seeing more snaps. Freshman Justice Haynes has already set a career-high in carries.
Balancing between those four backs makes me think there won’t be a ton of yardage for everyone, especially with DraftKings setting the number for McClellan at 69.5.
Tennessee has done a great job stopping the run this season, ranking sixth nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 23rd in PPA per Rush allowed.
Linebacker Aaron Beasley has been a monster, with 8.5 tackles-for-loss, and he'll be a big deterrent to Bama’s run game. Elijah Herring has also been a problem.
With those two waiting in the ranks, I’d expect Bama to throw the ball more, including checkdowns and screens. If the backs impact this game, it'll be by catching passes.
Pick: McClellan Under 69.5 Rush Yards (Play to 64.5)
