College Football Player Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Week 3 of the college football season is upon us, so it's time to dive into some player props.
Our NCAAF writers came through with five college football player props for Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia, Missouri's Luther Burden, Mississippi State's Blake Shapen and more.
Check out our five favorite college football player props for Saturday, Sept. 14's slate.
Boston College vs. Missouri Player Prop Pick
Luther Burden 2+ Touchdowns (+380)
Mizzou has won two laughers this season by a combined score of 89-0. The Tigers haven’t had to rely on their offensive stars, emptying their bench in wins over Murray State and Buffalo.
Luther Burden was one of those players who got the early hook last week against Buffalo. Eli Drinkwitz stated after that game that Burden had been dealing with an illness and was removed purely as a precaution.
The All-American hopeful has just seven receptions through two weeks, but this game is where his targets and usage will go through the roof. Not only does Mizzou move him all over the field as a receiver, but they also utilize him in the running game.
He scored on a jet sweep from the three-yard line last week. It’s that red zone scoring threat, on top of his big play ability out of the slot, that makes a multi-touchdown game possible.
Boston College has faced two dysfunctional offenses over the past two weeks. Florida State and DJU are tire-fire. FCS Duquesne did little to prepare them for corralling a special talent like Burden.
Burden has found the end zone in six of his last eight contests, but I’d rather swing for the fences and count on a huge day at close to 4-1.
Pick: Luther Burden 2+ Touchdowns (+380 · Play to +350)
Tulane vs. Oklahoma Player Prop Pick
Mario Williams Over 65.5 Rec. Yards (-114)
By Greg Liodice
I head to Norman, where the Sooners host the Tulane Green Wave. I wrote about this game for The Action Network, and if you know me, you know I’m a believer in Darian Mensah.
I’ve watched him closely in his first two starts and see an extremely poised quarterback (especially for a redshirt freshman).
Mensah has formed an insane connection with transfer receiver Mario Williams – ironically, a former Sooner. In his first two games donning the blue and green, Mensah and Williams have connected for 10 receptions and 252 yards.
Eventually, Williams will have a less productive game—it happens to everyone. However, Tulane’s opponents in Oklahoma do a poor job stopping the pass, ranking 93rd in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Despite the win, the Sooners also had trouble stopping Houston’s aerial attack last week, in which Donovan Smith completed 86% of his passes for 260 yards.
Conversely, Tulane ranks 17th in Pass Success Rate, and Mensah leads the AAC with a 70.7% completion rate.
If you want to go crazy, take Mensah for over 195.5 yards, but I’ll stick with just Williams’ prop for now.
Pick: Mario Williams Over 65.5 Rec. Yards (-114 · Play to -120)
Nevada vs. Minnesota Player Prop Pick
Max Brosmer Over 225 Passing Yards (+180)
By Cody Goggin
Max Brosmer joins the Minnesota Golden Gophers this season after a storied career at the University of New Hampshire. At UNH, Brosmer was an FCS Second Team All-American and Walter Payton Award finalist. Brosmer led FCS in passing yards last season with 3,459 yards and had 8,467 yards in his career there.
Through two games at Minnesota, Brosmer has thrown for 165 yards against North Carolina and 271 against Rhode Island last weekend.
Minnesota ranks 35th in EPA per Dropback this season and 13th in pass Success Rate — after ranking 113th and 109th in these two categories last season. Brosmer looks to be a major upgrade to this offense at the quarterback position in a limited sample so far.
This week, Brosmer will battle Nevada, which went 2-10 last season and had the 127th-ranked defense by SP+. The Wolf Pack have looked to be improved this season under new head coach Jeff Choate, but they still have work to do overall.
Their offense has been the primary source of their improvement, as their defense still ranks 104th in EPA per Play allowed and 82nd in Success Rate allowed this season. Nevada has been particularly bad against the pass this season, ranking 115th in EPA per Dropback allowed.
Brosmer looks to be a solid quarterback, something Minnesota hasn’t had on campus in a while. As 17.5-point favorites, I think Brosmer should have enough pass attempts in this game to easily hit the over on his yardage prop, as I don’t think the market has fully caught up to Minnesota’s new-look offense.
I like taking Brosmer’s alternate over of 225 yards at +180, as I believe there is plenty of value there. If you want to play safe, you could bet Brosmer over 200 yards at -115.
Pick: Max Brosmer Over 225 Passing Yards (+180 · Play to +165)
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia State Player Prop Pick
Diego Pavia Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-151)
Vanderbilt is essentially running a hybrid triple option on offense with New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia under center. The Commodores are averaging just 15 passing attempts per game, with 43.5 rushing attempts.
Most of those have come from Pavia. He is running this RPO with lead back Sedrick Alexander, but Pavia has run the ball an average of 19.5 times per game. That isn’t far from his time at New Mexico State, when he averaged almost 12 rushes per game.
Pavia has been a very effective runner throughout his career. In 2022, he averaged 42.3 rushing yards per game with six touchdowns on the ground. Last year, he averaged 61.5 yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns, and so far this season, he is averaging 77.5 rushing yards per game with a touchdown in each contest.
In the season opener against Virginia Tech, Pavia rushed for 104 yards on 26 attempts. I expect another big game from him on the ground against a weak Georgia State front seven. The Panthers rank just 112th in the country in defensive stuff rate this season.
Georgia Tech, who runs a very similar offense to Vandy, rushed for 225 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry against the Panthers in Week 1. In 17 starts over the last two seasons, Pavia has cleared this number 10 times. The ‘dores should run all over this Georgia State front on Saturday and Pavia will be a big part of that.
Pick: Diego Pavia Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-151 · Play to 59.5)
Toledo vs. Mississippi State Player Prop Pick
Blake Shapen Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-114)
By Brett Pund
When Jeff Lebby was hired to lead Mississippi State, you knew he would have plenty of suitors who would love to be the quarterback in his offense. I think this is the week we see Blake Shapen flourish in Starkvegas.
Shapen's overall numbers haven’t quite been there through two games, but he has played well. According to Pro Football Focus, he leads the nation in passing grade (92.7) and is tied for first in the SEC in passes graded as big-time throws.
In the opener against Eastern Kentucky, he completed 15-of-20 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns, but his arm wasn’t needed much in the second half because of the blowout. Toledo will do enough to keep this game close and allow Shapen to keep slinging it.
Speaking of those Rockets, this team lost many key players in the offseason, especially in its defensive secondary — that unit lost three of four starters, including a player drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.
This is not good against MSU’s new high-flying passing attack with Lebby and Shapen. With both teams ranking inside the Top 10 in seconds per play, I like the Bulldogs to have plenty of plays for Shapen to attack Toledo’s weakness.
