It’s another college football Saturday, so you might as well squeeze as much value as you can get out of this crazy slate.
An often underutilized way to squeeze value is in the player props market, which usually features wildly inefficient lines on young superstar players.
Our staff has found four such lines, providing four player prop picks on Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford and Texas A&M wide receiver Evan Stewart.
Read on for a breakdown of all four picks below.
Week 9 College Football Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 3:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Dillon Gabriel
Over 295.5 Passing Yards (Play to 300.5)
Despite facing two solid pass defenses (Iowa State, Texas), Oklahoma’s southpaw gunslinger is averaging 306.5 yards per game through the air in Big 12 play.
Kansas’ pass defense is anything but solid.
The Jayhawks trot out the worst secondary in the conference. Opposing Big 12 passers are sailing past this number weekly while completing 65.3% of their attempts. Aside from UCF, which prefers to run the ball, every opposing Big 12 team has tallied over 325 passing yards against Kansas.
It’s also worth considering the Heisman factor.
Gabriel has the nation's fifth-lowest odds to win the coveted award, and it seems the coaching staff is comfortable giving him every opportunity to shine. In conference play, Gabriel has averaged 38 pass attempts per game. Those attempts have come in close games (Texas, UCF) and blowouts (Iowa State).
Lucky for us, this game figures to be a shootout.
The implied score from the books is Oklahoma 38, Kansas 28. As long as KU holds up their end of the bargain and keeps things competitive through three quarters, Gabriel and the Sooners’ passing game will shine.
I would play this up to 300.5.
I'd also consider looking at freshman Nic Anderson’s anytime touchdown odds. The big-bodied Sooner receiver has scored in five straight games.
Pick: Gabriel Over 295.5 Passing Yards (Play to 300.5)
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M
Evan Stewart
Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 69.5)
When hockey teams are preparing to play an inferior opponent, the phrase “tonight is gonna be a point night” is often used.
Well, it's a "point night," or more aptly, "yard night," for any above-average receiver facing off against South Carolina.
Here’s how some top receivers have fared facing the Gamecocks defense this season:
- Missouri's Luther Burden: 5 catches, 97 yards
- Florida's Ricky Pearsall: 10 catches, 166 yards
- Mississippi State's Lideatrick Griffin: 7 catches, 256 yards.
At this rate, South Carolina would have trouble slowing down Danvers High School.
Next up on "point/yard night" is Texas A&M’s talented pass catcher Evan Stewart.
The stud sophomore wideout has been battling an ankle injury for the past few weeks but had plenty of time to heal up during the Aggies’ off week. Stewart will have plenty of opportunities for a big day, considering he leads the team in targets (50) despite missing a game earlier this season.
Unfortunately, the most significant detriment to Stewart having a monster day is his quarterback, Max Johnson, who has struggled since taking over for the injured Conner Weigman.
But listen to this: per Pro Football Focus, the second-highest-graded passer in clean pockets is Max Johnson.
Shocking, I know.
But it’s a match made in heaven because South Carolina’s defense can't get after the quarterback. The Gamecocks rank 94th nationally in sacks with 12.
A comfortable Johnson means Stewart gets to join the wide receiver “point night” club on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Stewart Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 69.5)
Georgia vs. Florida
Carson Beck
Over 267.5 Passing Yards
By Alex Hinton
While still undefeated and ranked No. 1, Georgia hasn't been all that dominant.
Some of the blame has been directed at Carson Beck.
That's unfair.
The redshirt junior is a first-year starter, but he hasn't played like one.
He's completing 73% of his passes and boasts a 12:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's averaging over 300 passing yards per game. He's racked up 268 or more passing yards in six of seven games. In the one game he went under, he finished with 261 passing yards against Vanderbilt in a game where the Bulldogs ran for a season-high 291 rushing yards.
To be fair, two things are working against Beck this week.
The first is that he will play without the nation’s best tight end, Brock Bowers, for the first time this season.
They will miss him, but the Bulldogs do not lack weapons. Tight end Oscar Delp will fill in for Bowers, and he was more highly touted as a recruit than Bowers.
Receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint is healthy after battling knee injuries his first few years in Athens. Transfers Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas are also capable. Ladd McConkey usually steps up in big moments.
Georgia is also coming off a bye, so it's had extra time to prepare for life without Bowers.
The second roadblock is Florida's secondary, which ranks 21st nationally in passing yards allowed and 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
However, Joe Milton, Ken Seals and Spencer Rattler all managed 280 or more passing yards against Florida. Rattler even finished with a whopping 313 against the Gators.
And we have to consider the narrative angle.
Beck is a Jacksonville native, and this rivalry — ”The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” — is always played in his hometown. Beck grew up a Florida fan but picked its rival as a recruit.
This will be Beck’s first opportunity to start in his hometown, and it'll be his first opportunity to play against his childhood team.
Expect him to put on a show for his family and friends.
Pick: Beck Over 267.5 Passing Yards
Mississippi State vs. Auburn
Robby Ashford
Anytime Touchdown (+185)
By Brett Pund
For the fourth straight week, I'm betting on a quarterback playing against the Mississippi State defense.
But I'm attacking the Bulldogs' defensive weaknesses another way, betting Auburn's Robby Ashford to find the endzone at solid plus-money odds.
Mississippi State has struggled against mobile quarterbacks under defensive coordinator Zach Arnett. Arnett runs an aggressive 3-3-5 defense, leaving the Bulldogs vulnerable to quarterbacks who can tuck it and go.
My prior props were geared toward quarterback rushing totals, but the Bulldogs allow plenty of rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, too.
This season, Arizona's Jayden De Laura, Alabama's Jalen Milroe and LSU's Jayden Daniels all found the endzone against Mississippi State. Milroe and Daniels each recorded two rushing scores against Arnett's squad.
Last season, Mississippi State's opposing quarterback scored a rushing touchdown in half of its conference games.
Ashford himself is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns with five. He rushed for 108 yards and two scores in this matchup last year.
He's splitting time with Payton Thorne, but there's no way Hugh Freeze can ignore the rushing success his quarterback saw in this game a year ago.
Pick: Ashford Anytime Touchdown (+185)
