Week 2 of the college football season featured plenty of drama and big upsets, and while Week 3 doesn't have a lot of high-profile games, there are still plenty of good rivalry games on the slate.
Welcome to our Week 3 Pace Report, where we'll focus on Alabama vs. Wisconsin, UAB vs. Arkansas and Colorado vs. Colorado State.
With head coach and coordinator changes, the transfer portal and quarterbacks in new systems, we can't really rely on each team's pace numbers from last season, so we'll rely on what we've seen this season and numbers from last year.
So, until Week 4 — one more week — plays per minute and plays per game numbers will not be provided.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 3 off with three totals to target.
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Prediction
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 51.5 +100o / -120u | -700 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 51.5 +100o / -120u | +500 |
Through two weeks, the Badgers have looked less than impressive. They struggled to put 28 points on the board against Western Michigan and then scored only 27 against South Dakota last week.
This is now Year 2 in the new Phil Longo offense that looks nothing like what Wisconsin fans are used to seeing. To be quite honest, the change has not been a good thing so far.
Last year, Wisconsin was good from a Success Rate standpoint, but it was one of the least explosive offenses in the country. The Badgers finished 125th in big plays, which caused them to finish 83rd EPA/Play.
In an attempt to fix the offense, they brought in Tyler Van Dyke from Miami, but it hasn't worked so far.
Against Western Michigan and South Dakota, Van Dyke has averaged under 6.5 yards per attempt with only two big-time throws. Now, he's going to step up multiple classes when he faces Alabama.
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Crimson Tide's front seven mainly intact.
They return five of their top six defensive linemen and their best two linebackers from last season, which is massive going up against a Wisconsin rushing attack that ranked top-15 in Success Rate last season.
So far, Wisconsin has struggled to get Chez Mellusi going on the ground, as he's averaging just 3.8 yards per carry with only one run of 10-plus yards.
So, if the pressure's on Van Dyke to throw in this game against a brand-new but very talented Alabama secondary, the Badgers are going to continue to struggle to move the ball.
Jalen Milroe was nearly perfect against Western Kentucky but really struggled against South Florida last Saturday, going only 16-of-27 for 194 yards.
The thing with Milroe is that he wasn't very good when he had to face top-level defenses last season. Unsurprisingly, his worst games came against Texas, Georgia and Michigan.
Image via PFF.
Wisconsin has one of the best linebacking corps and secondaries in the Big Ten this season and held Western Michigan and South Dakota to a combined 165 yards passing.
Even though Longo has come in and picked up Wisconsin's tempo, it hasn't resulted in any improvement on offense or generated explosive plays. Alabama's tempo also hasn't really changed from last season, sitting at around 27 seconds per play, which is below the FBS average.
The winds are going to be blowing at 11 mph during the game, which does trigger our windy unders trend in Bet Labs. That system has hit at a 56% rate historically.
I only have 48.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 51.5 points.
Pick: Under 51.5 (BetMGM)
UAB vs. Arkansas Prediction
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +1250 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
This one should be very up and down.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has been incredible in his two games back at Arkansas.
The Razorbacks literally were perfect against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, scoring a touchdown on all 10 of their offensive drives. They then put up 648 yards of offense against Oklahoma State but somehow found a way to lose the game.
The combination of quarterback Taylen Green and Petrino's offense looks to be a match made in heaven. Petrino has coached some great dual-threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, and Green fits that type of mold.
Green threw for over 400 yards against Oklahoma State, which is surprising given that he was pretty limited as a passer last year at Boise State, putting up a PFF passing grade of just 60.2.
However, Petrino is one of the best offensive minds in college football and has clearly designed an offense to suit him.
Green is also a really dangerous runner. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry with nine touchdowns on the ground at Boise State last year. Through two games in Fayetteville, he's already racked up 177 rushing yards, so UAB is going to have a heck of a time trying to stop him.
Arkansas also made a huge pick up in the transfer portal, bringing in Utah starter Ja'Quinden Jackson at running back.
Jackson posted an 85.5 PFF rushing grade in 2023 and had a big game against Oklahoma State on Saturday, going for 142 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries.
UAB brings back just four starters to a defense that ranked 120th in both EPA/Play and Finishing Drives Allowed last season, so Arkansas can probably pick the score here.
On the other side, UAB's offense was pretty efficient last season and ranked 25th in EPA/Play.
The offensive line was elite, coming in at seventh in Stuff Rate Allowed and third in Offensive Line Yards. All five starters are back on the offensive line after UAB averaged 4.5 yards per carry on the ground as a team.
The Blazers also return their starting quarterback from last year in Jacob Zeno, and there should be some improvement in Year 2 of Alex Mortensen's system. Zeno averaged 8.1 yards per attempt with 20 touchdown passes in 2023 and even threw for over 250 yards against Georgia.
Arkansas brought back eight starters on defense, along with some high-value transfers. But after giving up almost four points per scoring opportunity to Oklahoma State, it doesn't look like the Hogs will improve on a Finishing Drives Allowed ranking of 79th from last year.
The pace of this game should be really fast. Both of these teams are currently in the top 20 in seconds per play through the first two games, so I think the total is a tad too low here. I'll take the over 60.
Pick: Over 60 (bet365)
Colorado vs. Colorado State Prediction
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 59 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 59 -110o / -110u | +235 |
The offensive line continues to be the problem for Colorado's offense, and Nebraska completely that unit on Saturday.
Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders has constantly been under pressure at Colorado and has very rarely had a clean pocket to throw from. He dealt with a crowded pocket on 37% of his dropbacks in 2023, per PFF, which led to a whopping 49 sacks.
He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he has a clean pocket, but it remains to be seen if he's going to consistently have one moving forward.
The other main problem is run blocking. Much like last year, Colorado doesn't have a consistent rushing attack right now. The Buffalos have run for a total of 65 yards through two games this season, and it doesn't look to be getting better anytime soon.
So, that means all of the pressure is on Sanders in the passing game. He'll be tasked with throwing on defenses that can get pressure with only three or four rushers while dropping seven or eight into coverage.
Defensively, Colorado State was pretty stout against the run last season, ranking inside the top 50 in EPA/Rush Allowed.
The Rams also return a lot of their key players. That's big news considering they held Colorado to under three yards per carry in this game last year and should be able to do the same on Saturday night.
The biggest question mark with the Rams is their secondary. They struggled in this game last year but brought back all of their starters, so there can only be improvement seeing Sanders a second time.
Offensively, Colorado State enters Year 3 of the Jay Norvell era, but his Air Raid offense still isn't working. The offensive line did a solid job in pass protection last season, but CSU couldn't run the ball at all and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry as a team.
Despite having time to throw, quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi wasn't a very effective passer last season. He recorded a PFF passing grade of 60.2 and had a whopping 26 turnover-worthy plays.
Most of his throws came under 10 yards, but when he has to throw the ball downfield, he tends to get into trouble.
Fowler-Nicolosi isn't a very accurate quarterback either, ranking outside the top 100 among qualified quarterbacks last season in on-target and catchable ball percentage.
The Buffs' secondary is uber-talented with Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders returning. Plus, it added Preston Hodge from Liberty to make them even better.
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola posted just 185 yards passing and averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt against Colorado last week, so I have a hard time seeing how Fowler-Nicolosi repeats his performance from last season (367 yards, three TDs) against the Buffaloes.
Neither team can run the ball, which means all the pressure is going to be on the quarterbacks.
This game went into overtime last season, but they combined for only 56 points in regulation. I have a hard time seeing how they're going to get there again this year.
I only have 53.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 59.
Pick: Under 59 (bet365)
