It's here — the final week of the college football regular season. And while the volume of games will wind down, the attention on individual players will ramp up with more standalone games.
Below we've compiled five plays to use on PrizePicks and Underdog for Friday and Saturday's slate from our tools at Rotogrinders — both the college football pick'em analysis page and the projections page. You can get all the plays with a Rotogrinders subscription.
College Football PrizePicks & Underdog
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 pm (Friday) | |
| 7:30 pm (Saturday) | |
| 12 pm (Saturday) | |
| 12 pm (Saturday) | |
| 3:30 pm (Friday) | |
Specific recommendations come from the operator offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Liberty vs. Sam Houston
Hunter Watson Less Than 189.5 Passing Yards
If you watched a lot of mid-week Conference USA this season, you saw the peak of the Sam Houston offense in late September and early October, but you may have missed the complete dropoff in the second half of the schedule.
The Kats haven't topped 20 points in any of their last four games, and part of that is due to Watson's injuries and inconsistency. He's only topped 189.5 yards passing twice this season (again, a few times due to injury) but SHSU has little juice on offense, especially against teams with more talent on defense like Liberty.
Pick: Hunter Watson Less Than 189.5 Passing Yards
Washington vs. Oregon
Tez Johnson Less Than 76.5 Receiving Yards
Johnson hasn't played since Nov. 2 and is set to make his return vs. Washington. Our projections think this number is just a bit too high, even though he's cleared this number in 5/10 games.
Johnson is a volume, low-aDOT receiver (5.1 average depth of target) so he's likely not going to get there on a few big plays — he needs the volume. And the Huskies have been elite against the pass this year. Their 5.4 yards per pass attempt allowed is third nationally.
Pick: Tez Johnson Less Than 76.5 Receiving Yards
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Diego Pavia More Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
One last regular-season ride for a now-legendary college football quarterback.
As we discussed last week, college football quarterback rushing stats are tricky to project. Because sacks count against their individual rushing totals (which they don't in the NFL), even a great running game can be derailed by a few big sacks.
Pavia has cleared this number in all but one game and his volume is incredibly consistent — he's had 13+ rushing attempts in 10/12 games, as well.
More importantly, Vanderbilt's offense is different. They've given up just 14 sacks this season and lost 105 total yards, so while Tennessee's defensive line is stout, Vandy is more matchup-proof in this regard than a high-volume passing team.
Pick: Diego Pavia More Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Tahj Brooks Less Than 26.5 Receiving Yards
Brooks is one of the nation's best running backs and broke out as a receiver in a 56-48 win over Oklahoma State last week. But that game was an outlier, with TTU running an absurd 92 plays.
Brooks is averaging under 3.0 targets and under 2.5 catches per game, and has only eclipsed 26.5 receiving yards twice (albeit in each of the last two weeks). But again, I don't think you can expect that volume on a week-to-week basis.
Pick: Tahj Brooks Less Than 26.5 Receiving Yards
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss
Micah Davis Less Than 14.95 Fantasy Points
Davis was a big part of Utah State's offense last year but did not find his footing at Ole Miss. He has just nine targets and five catches all season.
However, last week the Rebels began using Davis as a running back since their RB room is so thin. He carried 11 times for 27 yards, which is likely where this projection is coming from. However, our projections still think 14.95 is far too high given that he still didn't get close last week on heavier volume, and we don't know whether or not the volume will continue.
Pick: Micah Davis Less Than 14.95 Fantasy Points
