Fresno State (5-4, 3-2 Mountain West) travels to Colorado Springs, Colorado, to take on Air Force (1-7, 0-4 Mountain West) on Saturday, November 9th.
The game kicks off at 9:45 PM ET and can be seen live on FS1.
Fresno State is a 10.5-point favorite on the spread with a 41.5-point over/under.
The Bulldogs will be looking for a solid performance out of their group to secure bowl game eligibility, while the Falcons are smack dab in the middle of their worst season in recent memory.
Read on for our Fresno State vs Air Force predictions and college football picks for this Week 11 NCAAF matchup.
Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction, Picks
My Fresno State vs Air Force best bet is on the Falcons to stay under their 13.5-point team total at bet365 Sportsbook.
Fresno State vs Air Force Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 41 -110 / -110 | -400 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 41 -110 / -110 | +320 |
- Fresno State vs Air Force Point Spread: Fresno State -10.5 (-110) · Air Force +10.5 (-110)
- Fresno State vs Air Force Total: Over/Under 41
- Fresno State vs Air Force Moneyline: Fresno State -400 · Air Force +320
Fresno State Football vs Air Force Football Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Fresno State comes in from a stunning 21-20 loss last week while hosting Hawaii.
The Bulldogs seemed to seize control of the game when defensive back Phoenix Jackson picked off Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager and ran it back 90 yards for a touchdown. This play put Fresno State up 20-7, but Hawaii battled back in the fourth quarter and took the lead with 15 seconds to play on a pass from Schager to Nick Cenacle.
Before this contest, the Bulldogs had played pretty well in the league, except for a blowout loss at UNLV.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
Air Force's offense has been up against it all year.
The Falcons have not received good quarterback play and are not equipped with the skill position players or offensive line players necessary to be competitive on offense.
The Falcons have averaged 12.7 points per game against FBS competition, and the Flyboys have seen a significant drop in production from the ground game.
It will be tough for Air Force's offense again this week.
Fresno State vs Air Force Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Air Force match up statistically:
Fresno State Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 81 | 90 | |
Air Force Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 134 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 109 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 36 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 94 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 120 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 95 | 127 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 129 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (68) | 28.6 (102) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (100) | 77% (2) |
How To Bet My Fresno State vs Air Force Pick
Air Force's offense is a mess.
Head coach Troy Calhoun doesn't have the personnel to run the triple-option. The Falcons rank 132nd nationally in Success Rate and 134th in Explosiveness. They're averaging 185 rushing yards per game at only 3.6 YPC behind poor offensive line play.
Fresno State boasts a solid rush defense, ranking 46th in EPA per Rush allowed and 23rd in Rush Explosiveness allowed. The Bulldogs have allowed fewer than 100 yards per game at 3.1 YPC over their past three contests.
The Bulldogs defense has also held up well on third down and in the red zone, which should be key against an Air Force offense that's flailed in both areas this season.
Fresno State's offense has also leaned into a more rush-first approach, and the Bulldogs should move the ball fine on the ground this Saturday — Air Force is allowing 195 rush yards per game at 5.1 YPC. The Bulldogs' more methodical offense should limit possessions and keep its defense fresh.
Air Force will play hard, but the talent on offense can only do so much. I am going back to the well with their team total under.
Pick: Air Force Team Total Under 13.5 (+115, bet365)
Air Force vs Fresno State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Falcon Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Fresno State vs Air Force will be played at Falcon Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, at 9:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
