The Liberty Flames (5-2, 3-2 CUSA) take on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (3-6, 2-3 C-USA) on Saturday, Nov. 9, in Conference USA action. The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET and can be seen live on CBS Sports Network.
The Flames are coming off 2 straight losses, most recently suffering a 31-21 defeat at the hands of Jacksonville State. The Blue Raiders, meanwhile, are coming off a 20-13 victory over UTEP their last time out.
Liberty is pegged as 10.5-point favorites in the contest with the over/under set at 54.
Let's take a look at my Liberty vs Middle Tennessee predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -450 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +350 |
- Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Point Spread: Liberty -11.5 (-110) · Middle Tennessee +11.5 (-110)
- Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Total: Over/Under 55
- Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Liberty -450 · Middle Tennessee +350
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty best bet is on the Flames to cover the 10.5-point spread available at bet365 Sportsbook.
Moneyline
PASS
Spread
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Pick: Liberty -11.5
Over/Under
Liberty Flames vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders College Football Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Bottom of the Market
Liberty is looking to get its season back on track after losing two straight in conference play, and this game this week will be a real watershed moment in determining the rest of its season trajectory.
The Flames were heavy favorites in CUSA all season before a stunning and inexcusable loss to Kennesaw State, followed by another defeat at home to Jacksonville State.
This is a significantly weaker team than the 2023 squad that ran through CUSA undefeated, and bettors have felt the pain badly when backing Liberty.
This group is just 1-7 against the spread this year, and many of these games haven’t come close to covering the number. This week, we're getting a price on Liberty that seems to be the absolute bottom of the market.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: On the Struggle Bus
Middle Tennessee comes in off a 20-13 road win last week over UTEP. In typical Miner fashion, inefficient offensive play and missed opportunities aided the Blue Raiders.
MTSU took control late in the fourth quarter on a one-yard touchdown run by quarterback Nicholas Vattiato before stopping UTEP, which threw into the end zone on the last play of the game.
The Blue Raiders have played some of the better teams in CUSA and had a difficult nonconference schedule, but this is not a good football team.
I find it hard to see them keeping it close this week against Liberty.
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Liberty Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 117 | |
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Liberty Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 133 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 58 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 89 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 104 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 121 | 87 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (71) | 28.9 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (13) | 44% (125) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
I'm going to go against the grain here and lay 10.5 with the Flames. Liberty has advantages in nearly every statistical metric you can measure a football team by.
Defensively, MTSU will have a tall order here.
The Blue Raiders rank dead last in FBS in Defensive EPA Per Play and are 120th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives. Middle is allowing 449 yards per game on 6.5 yards per play while surrendering 33.7 points per game.
The Blue Raiders struggle to defend the run and are bottom-10 nationally in both Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Passing Success Rate.
The MTSU secondary is allowing 8.2 yards per pass, and this is a spot where Liberty should be able to get right on offense.
The Flames run the ball well, averaging 230 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry on the ground.
Liberty has done well to protect quarterback Kaidon Salter, who has been sacked only 11 times on 184 dropbacks. MTSU ranks 118th in Havoc and likely will not put enough pressure on Salter to have a significant impact on his performance.
The Blue Raiders have also been backed into the red zone frequently this year having already faced 44 red-zone trips to go along with the numerous explosive touchdown scores they've allowed. The Raiders have surrendered 32 touchdowns in those 44 red-zone trips.
The Flames have struggled at times in the red zone, but with a lack of pressure and Salter’s mobility down around the goal line, I would expect they score touchdowns more often than not in this game.
MTSU has been better offensively than defensively, but it's not lights-out by any means. It scored 20 points against UTEP, which is actually just the second-best outing by the Miners defense this season.
A major concern here is that MTSU can't run the ball. The team is averaging just 79 yards per game on the ground with a 2.8 yards-per-carry average.
The Flames have created enough pressure to create cause for concern. MTSU's offensive line play has been exceedingly poor all season. Vattiato has been sacked 23 times this year, and there have been numerous other instances where pressure has caused “throw-away” passes or frantic, short scrambles.
It's really put up or shut up time for Liberty in an attempt to correct course for this season. The Flames need some help, but they aren't out of the conference race and have had a few extra days to prep for this game.
Three weeks ago, before the Kennesaw State loss, Liberty would have been favored here by 21.5 points, so we're certainly getting value in this number. Lay it with the Flames.
Pick: Liberty -11.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to -13 (-110)
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Johnny Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee will be played at Johnny Floyd Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, at 1 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Betting Trends
- 31% of bets and 75% of the money are on Middle Tenn to cover the spread
- 95% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on Liberty to win outright
- 61% of bets and 74% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Weather
