It's time to make an App State Mountaineers vs Miami (OH) RedHawks pick for Saturday's college football bowl game.
App State vs Miami (OH)
| App State Mountaineers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
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The most wonderful time of the year — bowl season — has arrived.
While many Americans are jamming into shopping centers to finish their holiday shopping, college football fans are on the couch sweating out every minute of every game, trying to churn out a profit.
The Cure Bowl features Miami (Ohio) and Appalachian State, with the RedHawks fresh off of a MAC Championship and the Mountaineers looking to rebound from their Sun Belt Championship loss to Troy.
There are a lot of notable opt-outs and transfers in this matchup — the perfect time to use Stuckey's opt-out and transfer tracker — so let's get to our Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State pick.
App State Mountaineers
In terms of opt-outs and transfers, the Mountaineers are at a disadvantage in this game.
Many casual gamblers will see that the RedHawks are down to their third-string quarterback and will happily lay the points. Well, the Mountaineers will be without leading rusher Nate Noel, as well as receivers Dashaun Davis and Milan Tucker.
That's bad news for quarterback Joey Aguilar, who will be handcuffed without many key weapons. This was already going to be a tough matchup, but it now seems like it'll be an even taller task.
On a positive note, this offense ranked 22nd in Havoc Allowed and 11th in Passing Success Rate. Without key weapons, the Mountaineers will need to get creative with their offensive scheme.
Defensively, this group will be let off the hook a bit, as the RedHawks are a shell of themselves without Gabbert.
Miami RedHawks
All hope seemed to be lost when starting quarterback Brett Gabbert went down with a season-ending injury, but the defense and special teams absolutely thrived when it counted the most.
This defense is ferocious and did an unbelievable job slowing down Toledo's explosive ground attack. Additionally, I can't say enough about the special teams, which was the best unit in the country.
Coming off the MAC Championship, there's some concern that this group won't be motivated for this game. I wouldn't be too concerned about that, but Miami will be without quarterback Aveon Smith.
That means Henry Hesson, who has played only five collegiate snaps in his career, will start at quarterback.
On the plus side, it's encouraging that the rest of the offensive starters seem to be good to go, including No. 1 receiver Gage Larvadain, who returned for the MAC title game. But let's face it — this offense was extremely inept after Gabbert's injury.
Miami will probably try to expose the Mountaineers' rush defense, which is a clear weakness, as App State finished 108th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and 123rd in Line Yards.
But quite frankly, the RedHawks can make this a game if they continue to lean on their defense and special teams.
They are excellent at preventing their opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone and establishing methodical drives, ranking top-20 in both Defensive Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
Defense and special teams should be enough to keep the RedHawks close, though we'll have to wait and see if they're motivated for this game.
The Mountaineers offense was pretty solid this year, but we'll speak about their impactful missing pieces below.
App State vs Miami (OH)
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Appalachian State match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs App State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 48 | |
App State Offense vs Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 19 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 15 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 48 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 1 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.4 (130) | 25.8 (38) |
| Rush Rate | 61.0% (13) | 53.0% (64) |
App State vs Miami (OH)
Betting Pick
This is a no-brainer for me. I love the RedHawks in this spot.
I realize it's going to be tough with Hesson under center, but I think the running game can sustain enough success to put points on the board. As long as Hesson can protect the football, the RedHawks' outstanding defense and special teams units should be enough to cover this number.
I have real concerns about the Mountaineers offense without its key starters. This will be a tall task for Aguilar, and with the total continuing to drop, it will be even tougher to cover the spread.
If Ohio manages to find success running the ball, it should be able to play keep-away for the majority of the afternoon.
I'm hoping that some public money continues to come in on App State so I can grab a +7, but I love the RedHawks in this game regardless and wouldn't be shocked to see them win outright.
