Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
The midweek madness of Conference USA action is only halfway through the month of October, but the conference may already be decided with half a season to play.
Liberty has four wins and no losses in the conference standings, building a scoring margin of +66. The bigger question is whether or not this is a look-ahead spot for the Flames with Western Kentucky looming on Oct. 24.
Middle Tennessee enters the game looking for an upset with a 1-2 conference record. The Blue Raiders defended their home turf in Week 7 to secure a win over Louisiana Tech.
Chances are slim for MTSU to make the Conference USA Championship and a third consecutive bowl game, but a win over Liberty would be a boost during an underwhelming 2023 season.
Liberty Flames
Head coach Jamey Chadwell has carried over the success from Coastal Carolina to Liberty, now with a quarterback not named Grayson McCall.
Third-year signal-caller Kaidon Salter has been better than expected, throwing 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Salter has increased his big-time throw rate from 2.4% to 10.3% while cutting down on his turnover-worthy plays by a whopping 75%.
Liberty ranks top-five in big-play rate thanks to a rank of third nationally in pass explosives.
Salter 🔥 Sibley
Touchdown @LibertyFootball!
📺: ESPNU pic.twitter.com/vEmlPXeSRp
— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) October 11, 2023
The Flames are a rush-heavy team, opting to run on 67% of snaps behind Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas. Liberty has one of the highest rates in standard downs, along with one of the best third-down conversion rates in all of FBS.
The defense has been equally as good with a mixture of staunch pass defense and a plethora of Havoc.
Linebacker Tyren Dupree has nearly double the tackles of any other player on the defense. Liberty lives in cover 1, producing a 57% Success Rate on opponent passing attempts.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Offense has been a struggle for Middle Tennessee, starting with rushing attempts in standard downs. The Blue Raiders have been unable to produce any rushing analytics in the top 100.
Jaiden Credle and Frank Peasant have split attempts this season, but neither averages more than three yards after contact.
Head coach Rick Stockstill has one of the highest rates nationally in passing downs, as the Blue Raiders have the second-most third-down attempts in the country.
Thanks to the dual-threat abilities of Nicholas Vattiato, the quarterback keeper has been a vital weapon for the Blue Raiders.
Nicholas Vattiato fakes EVERYONE out and dives for the TD 🤯 @MT_FBpic.twitter.com/FZLet9NSyo
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 11, 2023
MTSU's multiple defense has been boom-or-bust this season, veering in and out of an even distribution of 4-2-5, 3-2-6 and 4-3 personnel. Each one of the defensive packages sends blitz on at least 44% of snaps, producing a negative play on 9% of blitz attempts.
Outside of rushing the passer, the secondary ranks top-10 in pass breakups thanks to nine forced incompletions by cornerbacks Tyrell Raby and De'Arre McDonald.
But with the good comes the bad, as Middle Tennessee ranks 127th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Opponent drives that cross the Blue Raiders' 40-yard line are averaging 4.8 points per trip.
The aggressive nature of defensive coordinator Scott Shafer has also led to a defensive pass explosive rank of 124th.
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee
Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and Liberty match up statistically:
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 120 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 104 | 16 | |
Liberty Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 87 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 82 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 82 | 60 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 110 | 104 |
| Middle 8 | 115 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (41) | 29.4 (110) |
| Rush Rate | 46.3% (113) | 67.4% (4) |
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee
Betting Prediction and Pick
The advanced statistics show heavy favoritism to Liberty on both sides of the ball.
If Middle Tennessee is to cover or win the game outright, there are specific areas to attack the Flames.
First, Liberty has a weak strength of schedule with a remaining SOS of 122nd. The Flames have yet to be tested, unlike Middle Tennessee, which started the season against Alabama and Missouri.
The Blue Raiders will do their best to pressure Salter and force mistakes. However, Liberty ranks sixth nationally in Havoc Allowed, sporting the fifth-lowest rate of tackles for loss allowed.
The bigger issue for the Middle Tennessee defense is the high rate of pass explosives from Liberty. While the Blue Raiders have swatted plenty of pass attempts, each starter in the secondary has given up a 40-yard explosive pass.
Action Network projects this game at Liberty -17.
Middle Tennessee struggles to defend opponents in scoring position and to prevent explosives passes — two areas in which the Flames have run opponents out of the building.
The Blue Raiders' poor Success Rate and moderate explosive rate will not be enough to hang with a Liberty team on track to win a Conference USA title.
