The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 CUSA) will travel to Ruston, Louisiana, to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1) on Thursday night in a Conference USA matchup.
The game is set to kick off from Joe Aillet Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Both teams are coming off of a bye and have a combined 1 win on the season, so they'll each be looking to pick up win No. 2. Louisiana Tech enters as a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 49 points.
Without further ado, let’s dig into my Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 10.
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Prediction
- Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Pick: Louisiana Tech -4.5
My Middle Tennessee-Louisiana Tech best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49 -110 / -110 | +160 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49 -110 / -110 | -190 |
- Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Point Spread: Middle Tennessee +4.5 (-110) · Louisiana Tech -4.5 (-110)
- Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Total: Over/Under 49
- Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Moneyline: Middle Tennessee +160· Louisiana Tech -190
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Preview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Early Struggles for MTSU
Middle Tennessee has had a rough start to its season.
The Blue Raiders sit at 1-4 (0-1) and have not been particularly close in any of their games against FBS competition. However, their schedule has been difficult with Ole Miss, Duke and Memphis all classified as above-average opponents, along with a good Western Kentucky team in the conference.
Unfortunately for MTSU, it's been really bad in every game. SP+’s post-game win expectancy says the Blue Raiders haven't been the better team in any of their games this season. That includes a -6.8 projected margin against Tennessee Tech in a game MTSU won by seven.
Middle Tennessee ranks 106th in Offensive Success Rate, 124th in Finishing Drives and 96th in Havoc. The one bright spot has been a mark of 22nd in explosiveness.
The Blue Raiders pass the ball at the 11th-highest rate and sit 49th in Passing Success Rate and 47th in Passing PPA. The ground game is a different story, though, as they rank just 129th in Success Rate and 126th in Rushing PPA.
The defense for Middle Tennessee has been especially poor this year. It's 134th in Success Rate Allowed, 120th in Finishing Drives Allowed, 118th in Havoc Allowed and 91st in explosiveness allowed.
The Blue Raiders have struggled mightily in all facets, ranking 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 115th in Rushing PPA Allowed. They're also 131st in Passing PPA Allowed and 134th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
To make matters worse, they own PFF grades of 133rd pass rush, 123rd in run defense and 100th in coverage.
Ultimately, this has been an all-around bad defense.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Preview: 'Dogs the Better Team?
Louisiana Tech hasn’t had better results, as it's just 1-3 to this point. The Bulldogs beat Nicholls and have since fallen to NC State, Tulsa and Florida International, which are all below-average teams within their own conferences this year.
Louisiana Tech kept those games close but ultimately fell in all of them despite adjusted margins of -5.8 or better, according to SP+.
LA Tech’s offense has been its glaring weakness. The Bulldogs rank 131st in Offensive Success Rate, 89th in Finishing Drives and 111th in Havoc Allowed.
They come in at 132nd in Success Rate on the ground and 114th through the air, but they're fourth in overall explosiveness and eighth in passing explosiveness.
The quarterback position has been a battle this season.
Jack Turner began the season as the starter before getting injured and then playing poorly in his return. It was reported that both Turner and Evan Bullock would play against FIU, but it ended up being Bullock who played the whole game, throwing for 212 yards on 37 pass attempts.
Coming out of the bye, it's unknown who the starter will be, but I'd guess Bullock earns the nod. He's averaging -0.11 EPA per Dropback to Turner’s -0.21.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been more competitive this season, as they rank 23rd in Success Rate Allowed, including 35th against the pass and 31st against the run.
Their main deficiency has been allowing big plays, as they're 81st overall and 96th in Havoc.
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 131 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 52 | 37 | |
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 128 | 132 |  |
| Havoc | 105 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 131 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 79 | 109 |
| PFF Coverage | 101 | 118 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 107 | 52 |
| Middle 8 | 130 | 50 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.6 (113) | 25.9 (40) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (121) | 49% (108) |
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Pick & Prediction
Louisiana Tech is a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup. Although I wouldn’t count on it having much of a home-field advantage, it's the better team here. SP+ would agree, as it has LA Tech pegged as a 9.5-point favorite.
These teams have faced dramatically different schedules this season, which likely leads to some of the skewed results.
I think Louisiana Tech will have its better option at starting quarterback this week and take advantage of one of the worst defenses in FBS.
The Bulldogs defense is probably the best unit in this game, and while they aren’t great on an opponent-adjusted basis, I still think they'll find success against a Middle Tennessee offense that ranks 124th in SP+.
I'd take Louisiana Tech at -4.5 and would play it up to the key number of 6. Expect the Bulldogs to pull off the victory and cover in this Conference USA clash.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -4.5 (Play to -6)
How to Watch Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 10 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Betting Trends
- Louisiana Tech has landed 66% of the tickets and generated 79% of the money.
- The under has been the clear sharp side here, taking 25% of the bets while producing 52% of the cash.
Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech Weather
