Mississippi State vs Auburn Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
An SEC battle takes place in Auburn as the Tigers host the Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are fresh off of an ugly win against Arkansas, 7-3, and prior to that, they won against Western Michigan. However, they were missing quarterback Will Rogers in that one.
Conference play also hasn’t been a strength. Last week's win was their only victory against a conference opponent this season.
Auburn has had a lot of struggles after starting the season 3-0. Ever since conference play commenced, the Tigers started losing. They’ve lost their last four games, all against SEC opponents.
Auburn enters as a -6.5 favorite with a total of 40.5, so let's dive in and see where the betting value lies.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
In Zach Arnett’s first season as head coach, he’s done a decent job of getting the most out of his players. The Bulldogs aren’t anywhere near the SEC elite, but they compete.
The uncertainty looms around Rogers. Last week, he was out with a shoulder injury, and Mike Wright came in to relieve him and held his own. He didn’t throw the ball a lot, but is a threat on the ground.
Rogers is the guy this offense circles around, so when he’s gone, the team is out of sorts. Either way, Rogers was expected to take a massive leap this year, but it seems that he may have plateaued. He hasn’t really enhanced this passing attack that much, ranking 107th in passing play Success Rate and 108th in PPA.
This team is capable of an explosive play on occasion, though.
Lideatrick Griffin has been the go-to guy throughout the season. Griffin posted a game with 256 yards in Week 4 and is due for another breakout game.
Justin Robinson is also a guy to keep an eye on after returning from injury last week. He averages 13 yards per catch.
While not insanely efficient, the Bulldogs do like to run the ball quite a bit. They’re currently ranked 112th in Rushing Success Rate and 69th in PPA.
Jo’Quavious Marks gets a boatload of volume, while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He had himself an incredible first two games with 120+ rushing yards in each, but since then, he has yet to reach 100 again.
Defensively, Mississippi State does not excel at stopping the pass. Even though it does a solid job of preventing explosive plays, it still ranks 114th in Passing Success Rate and 113th in PPA.
Both Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson have been key parts to this pass rush — combining for 11.5 sacks — but the Bulldogs need more from others.
Johnson and Watson are the clear leaders of this defense. Both graduate students lead the team — by far — in not only total tackles, but tackles for loss, which help greatly against the run. Johnson also has two interceptions to his name.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn is still trying to figure itself out. Payton Thorne has led the charge under center — completing 61.5% of his passes — but he has only thrown over 150 yards once this season. During the first two games, he threw three interceptions, but as of late, he has protected the ball better.
Regardless, this passing attack has not thrived. Along with lacking significant explosiveness, Thorne is mainly a cause of the Tigers' 106th ranking in Success Rate.
He hasn’t thrown for distance either. His top receivers in Jay Fair and Rivaldo Fairweather both average 11 yards and 8.75 yards per catch. Either way, there’s not much to like from the aerial attack.
What Auburn does best is run the ball. It’s currently the 25th-best rushing team in the country and ranks 40th in PPA.
It has a full committee, whether it be Jarquez Hunter, Brian Battie or Jeremiah Cobb. Hunter gets a ton of carries though, and averages 4.3 yards per carry with five visits to the end zone.
The Tigers also use their quarterbacks a ton in the run game. Thorne is the team’s second leading rusher — going for 5.8 yards per carry — and he can make a big play while he’s at it. They also use Robby Ashford a lot in the wildcat, and he's averaging for 4.5 yards per carry.
For the most part, this team doesn’t do well on the defensive end. The Tigers' overall defense stands 77th in Success Rate and 57th in Havoc Allowed.
While the pass rush has struggled, the Tigers do have some solid playmakers. Linebacker Eugene Asante and defensive lineman Marcus Harris have combined for 7.5 sacks.
Defensive back Jaylin Simpson is also a star of this core with four interceptions.
Asante and Harris have also been a big part of stuffing the run. While Auburn does get beaten a lot on the ground (91st in rush defense Success Rate), both lead the team in TFL.
Mississippi State vs Auburn
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Auburn match up statistically:
Mississippi State Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 58 | |
Auburn Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 108 |  |
| Havoc | 108 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 84 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 79 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 34 |
| Middle 8 | 105 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (93) | 27.4 (78) |
| Rush Rate | 53.8% (68) | 63.1% (14) |
Mississippi State vs Auburn
Betting Pick & Prediction
What we have here is two underperforming SEC teams that don’t play well in conference play. Who cracks?
It seems like both teams are looking at themselves in the mirror.
While the Bulldogs were lucky enough to get past Arkansas last week, they still only put up seven points against a conference opponent. As far as I’m concerned, that’s as good as a loss.
Auburn has yet to win in conference play, though it made it close against worthy opponents in Georgia and Ole Miss. No matter what their record says, I’m not counting the Tigers out yet.
I believe Auburn’s run game is much more efficient than Mississippi State's, and the Tigers have a myriad of weapons.
Conversely, the Bulldogs are much more capable of explosive plays through the air. Rogers and Griffin do have solid chemistry, and as mentioned before, Griffin is due.
But what if Rogers misses yet another game? Advantage Auburn.
FanDuel has this total set at 43.5. I think that’s a very reasonable number if Rogers plays. In the last three games for Auburn, that number cleared easily, and Mississippi State has gone over that in every game besides last week.
If Wright has to start again, I’d lean towards Auburn at -6.5. It’s key to keep an eye on Mississippi State’s situation. Hopefully we’ll get some news soon.
