The Tennessee Volunteers (7-1) debuted in the first College Football Playoff rankings as the No. 9 seed, setting them up with a matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers. But the Vols have a long way to go, as they have a massive matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs next weekend.
First, they must get through a matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs enter the game 2-7 on the season and 0-5 in conference play.
Oddsmakers have the Vols as 24.5-point home favorites on the spread with a 62-point over/under. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 9, and can be streamed live on ESPN.
Let's examine our Mississippi State vs Tennessee predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 11 matchup.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -110 | 62 -110 / -110 | +1500 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -110 | 62 -110 / -110 | -3500 |
- Mississippi State vs Tennessee Point Spread: Mississippi State +24.5 (-110) · Tennessee -24.5 (-110)
- Mississippi State vs Tennessee Total: Over/Under 62
- Mississippi State vs Tennessee Moneyline: Mississippi State +1500 · Tennessee -3500
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Mississippi State vs Tennessee best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the four-score spread, with the best line available at bet365 Sportsbook.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
I'm backing the Bulldogs as big 'dogs on the spread.
Over/Under
PASS
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers College Football Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Turning The Offense Around
Being a Bulldogs fan during this transition season has been tough. Head coach Jeff Lebby is starting to turn some things around, but ultimately, it will take some time.
Despite their winless record in SEC play, the Bulldogs are starting to play better. For instance, they were competitive with Texas A&M a few weeks ago until late in the second half.
That is a big step in the right direction. Despite a slow start against a bad UMass team, they kicked it into gear for a 45-point performance.
But now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country.
The Bulldogs' offense is the team's apparent strength, so I will save everyone's time breaking down their pathetic defense. Long story short, they rank outside the top 100 in essentially every defensive metric.
Offensively, their numbers are better than they seem. They rank 39th in EPA per Pass and 54th in Early Down EPA per Play.
They've done a great job capitalizing on early downs and are 49th in available yards. When they establish drives, they've been efficient, ranking in the top 65 in Quality and Finishing Drives.
The problem is that the Vol's defense is arguably the best unit in the entire nation. They've been dominant all season, including a terrific effort against Alabama.
I do not have much confidence in the Bulldogs because of their horrific defense, but this is arguably one of the best betting spots of the entire season. With Georgia on deck, why on Earth do the Vols care about this game?
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Novels About Defense
The Vols have made a statement to the SEC thus far, and shockingly, it is not because of their offense.
The Vols' offense hasn't been weak, but their defense has been outstanding.
They enter the matchup against the Bulldogs in the top 20 in most defensive metrics, including tops nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and Quality Drives Allowed. It's been almost impossible to score touchdowns against them inside their 40-yard line, as they rank third in Finishing Drives Allowed. They have the best rush defense in the country and rank second in EPA per Play allowed. They also rank sixth in Havoc.
I can write novels on how good the defense has been, but let's take a look at the offenses they have faced thus far:
- Chattanooga
- NC State
- Oklahoma
- Arkansas
- Florida
- Alabama
- Kentucky
All those offenses outside of Alabama have had their fair share of struggles throughout the season. This is not to say that their defensive metrics are less impressive, but it is something to monitor, especially before next week's Georgia matchup.
Offensively, they've been a solid unit overall. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had his ups and downs but still provides a large talent ceiling. He only has nine touchdowns and four interceptions, so there is room for improvement.
Any offense is bound to have a field day against the Bulldog's defense, so I expect the Vols to put up their fair share of points throughout the game. But we all know head coach Josh Huepel has Georgia on his mind.
The game plan can undoubtedly be highly vanilla, given that he wants to avoid putting anything on tape for Kirby Smart's Bulldogs. That easily could have been the case last week, as the Vols offense took a while to get going, and they were happy with a two-possession lead most of the second half.
It's not to say their offensive metrics do not come into play for the handicap, but I will say that we should take them with a grain of salt this week. It's a cupcake matchup for them regardless, so once they get up four touchdowns, I guarantee they will start to pull key starters and sit on the ball.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Tennessee match up statistically:
Mississippi State Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 1 | |
Tennessee Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 129 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 131 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 56 |
| PFF Coverage | 127 | 52 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 41 | 85 |
| Middle 8 | 118 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.2 (7) | 23.5 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (71) | 61% (25) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction
I couldn't care less about how bad the Bulldogs' defense is or how elite the Vols’ unit is.
To me, the handicap is situational.
The Vols arguably have a playoff game next weekend against Georgia. They’ve already suffered one loss against Arkansas, which looks worse by the week. There is no reason they care about this game, and I expect them to build an early lead to pull starters as soon as possible.
The Bulldogs have been a mess thus far, but Leby’s offense has improved over the last couple of weeks. They’ll have no issues moving the ball once the Vols pull their starters.
I am taking the Bulldogs +24.5 pregame and looking to lock them in for the second half or a fatter number live. I’d suggest splitting up your bets in case they get trounced early in the first half.
Either way, it’s a terrific spot and way too juicy to pass up.
Also, it's worth mentioning that double-digit underdogs in SEC Conference matchups are an astounding 16-3 ATS (84%) this season.
Pick: Mississippi State +24.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to +21.5 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Mississippi State vs Tennessee will be played at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee, on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 7 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.
