The No. 1 Texas Longhorns (4-0) will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3) in their inaugural conference game as members of the SEC. This game will kick off at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network on Saturday.
Unlike their Red River rivals Oklahoma, which was baptized last week in its opener by the Tennessee Volunteers — the Longhorns will have a much easier time breaking into the new league.
They're 38-point favorites on the spread over the rebuilding Bulldogs with a total set at 62.5.
Steve Sarkisian’s Texas team has a serious talent advantage in every spot over Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs, who are in the first year of a long climb back to respectability in Starkville.
Texas is undefeated, No. 1 in the AP Poll and first in Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rating. Mississippi State has only won one game and has fallen to 77th in that comprehensive metric.
About the only things these two teams have in common is injuries to their QB1's. Blake Shapen is out for the year for the Bulldogs, and the Longhorns are still managing the Quinn Ewers/Arch Manning situation.
So, in an obvious blowout, you should lay the points, right? I think there’s a better way to play this game. Let’s get into my Mississippi State vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Mississippi State vs Texas Odds, Spread, Pick
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 / -112 | OFF |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 / -112 | OFF |
- Mississippi State vs Texas spread: Texas -37.5
- Mississippi State vs Texas over/under: 58.5 points
- Mississippi State vs Texas pick: Texas 1H -21.5
My Mississippi State vs Texas best bet is on the Longhorns first half spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Mississippi State vs Texas Betting Preview
Mississippi State Football
The first year in Starkville hasn't been kind to Lebby. He attempted to restock his roster with mostly Group of Five transfers, and as a result, the Bulldogs sport one of the worst line-of-scrimmage situations in the SEC on both sides of the ball.
They were bullied by both Arizona State and Toledo, and league laughingstock Florida rang up a multiple-score win last week.
And that was before Shapen went down.
The veteran quarterback is out for the season, and Lebby will hand the reins of his high-octane veer-and-shoot offense to true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. Welcome to the show, kid.
Even with Shapen, this unit was mediocre. Despite running a very high pace (second-fastest team in the country), the Bulldogs are only middle of the pack in the FBS in most offensive metrics. They check in at 87th in yards per play and 102nd in Success Rate.
Their fast tempo and penchant for getting blown out has led to some big plays, at least, as their offense checks in at the 94th percentile for creating explosives.
But Texas is excellent at taking away the big play; its defense is 99th percentile for preventing explosives. Mississippi State’s one calling card is D.O.A. against the Horns.
If the offense is mediocre in Starkville, the defense is a disaster. The Bulldogs' stop unit is outside of the top 100 in most metrics. They're in the 16th percentile for EPA per play allowed.
Texas Football
It took a few years, but Steve Sarkisian is building his own Death Star to rival the planet-killers in Tuscaloosa and Athens. His team is No. 1 in the country and looks sturdy enough to withstand even the temporary loss of Heisman frontrunner quarterback Ewers.
The Horns are outstanding in all facets. They're seventh in net points per drive on offense and third on defense. They're first overall in Parker Flemings ECKEL ratio – a measure of how often you create quality drives to how often you prevent them. (Mississippi State is 95th.)
Their offense is second in points, per ECKEL, while their defense is second in points allowed per ECKEL. The Longhorns create chances and capitalize on offense while preventing the same on defense.
Manning, college football's most famous backup QB, is still in line to get this start with Ewers being questionable.
Regardless, with this offensive line of Sunday players, deep tool chest of receivers and Sarkisian at the sticks, this offense will thrive regardless of signal caller.
The defense should dominate Van Buren in his first career start.
This spot reminds me of another game two years ago, when Lebby took his backup quarterback up against Texas as Oklahoma’s OC when Dillon Gabriel was out. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and his charges obliterated the Lebby offense, 49-0.
Mississippi State vs Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Texas match up statistically:
Mississippi State Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 57 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 2 | |
Texas Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 133 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 125 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 73 |
| PFF Coverage | 133 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 68 | 80 |
| Middle 8 | 113 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.6 (2) | 25.8 (38) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (74) | 55% (45) |
Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction
Texas has every match up advantage and will win comfortably in its SEC initiation.
But a few things are keeping me away from taking the full spread, and instead turning to lay the first-half number.
Let’s keep it to the first half to avoid any late-game shenanigans. Mississippi State has made a habit of falling far behind before scoring in garbage time to make the final score look prettier.
The Ewers injury and Manning's upside as a backup might not effect how Texas plays with its first team, but it does lower its effectiveness when Sarkisian inevitability turns to his backups.
Lastly, Mississippi State’s insistence on playing turbo offense will insure Texas gets enough chances in 30 minutes to cover this number.
I’ll take the Horns in the first half and lay the 21.5. I would play it to 23.5.
Pick: Texas 1H -21.5 (Play to -23.5)
How to Watch Mississippi State vs Texas Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Mississippi State vs Texas Betting Trends
- Mississippi St is 1-3 in its last four games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in three of Mississippi State's last four games.
- Texas is 4-0 in its last four games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in three of Texas' last four games.
Mississippi State vs Texas Weather
