The round-robin rivalry between service academies kicks off this weekend, as Navy travels to Air Force for the first game of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series.
Head coach Brian Newberry has led Navy (4-0, 3-0) to a white-hot start to the season. Quarterback Blake Horvath pilots a new offense that has them scoring points in bunches. In fact, for the first time since 1945, both Army and Navy have started the season 4-0.
Air Force (1-3, 0-2) has been the best academy in the past few years, but Troy Calhoun’s program has been grounded in 2024.
Air Force is a 10-point underdog at home in the kind of game that is usually slow, methodical and close. Should we trust Navy’s new Wing-T offense to cover the spread? Let’s get into my Navy vs Air Force predictions.
Navy vs Air Force Prediction
I'm going to trust that new offense. My Air Force vs Navy best bet is to back Navy against the spread (-10 or better).
Navy vs Air Force Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 35.5 -110 / -110 | -397 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 35.5 -110 / -110 | +310 |
- Navy vs Air Force Point Spread: Navy -10 (-110) · Air Force +10 (-110)
- Navy vs Air Force Total: Over/Under 35.5
- Navy vs Air Force Moneyline: Navy -397 · Air Force +310
Navy vs Air Force Preview
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: New Offense Working Wonders
We're going to take this preview all the way back to the 2022 offseason. That year, the NCAA installed a new rule eliminating cut blocks on the perimeter, which cut off the service academy flex-bone option offenses at the knees. Air Force didn’t need to adapt as it had singular talents in fullback Brad Roberts and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, but Army and Navy struggled. Remember, Army made an ill-advised switch to a shotgun-based scheme last year, an experiment it scrapped by midseason.
Navy made its shift this offseason, with new coordinator Drew Cronic and his Wing-T based scheme, and it is a smash hit. The scheme relies on jet motions to get the ball to the perimeter, fixing the part of the triple-option that was defanged with the new rules. The new offense also utilizes more play action, veer and even the shotgun.
Cronic’s crew is fourth overall in Success Rate and in the 99th percentile in Explosive plays. Horvath drives this offense, which is essentially a mix of a quality academy option ground game, with a generous helping of explosive passing. Horvath has completed 68.2% of his passes for 637 yards (14.5 yards per attempt), with seven touchdowns and one interception.
He is also the leading rusher with 450 yards at 9.6 yards per carry. A pair of excellent fullbacks, Daba Fofana and Alex Tecza, also support.
The Mids are first in the country at Havoc avoidance. Defenses have been on their heels, unable to attack with aggression as the new playbook and Cronic’s playcalling keeps them guessing (and whiffing). Navy has scored at least 38 points in all of its games, unphased by the fact that all three of their FBS games have been against conference opponents. Familiarity hasn't helped teams prepare for Navy.
Despite all the gushing about the offense, the defense has only been middle of the pack for FBS, but has been stronger against the pass than the rush (52nd percentile in EPA allowed per pass, 10th percentile against the rush).
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview: Uncharacteristic Struggles
What had been a peak of success for Calhoun has turned into a nightmare. The offense has cratered, falling to 128th in SP+ a month into the season, almost sixty spots lower than where it finished last year. The Falcons have yet to beat an FBS team, scoring only 29 combined points in their three attempts to do so.
The Falcons are 110th in EPA per rush and 105th in EPA per dropback. They are 130th in ECKEL rate, Parker Fleming’s measure of how often teams create quality drives. They are also 102nd in points per ECKEL.
The threat of the fullback run has vanished for Air Force. Their leading rusher at the position is Roman Bradley, who has 21 carries for 56 yards.
The defense has similarly cratered, going from 30th in SP+ at the end of last season, to 71st this season. They are particularly ghastly against Navy’s new weapon, the explosive pass. Navy’s offense is in the 99th percentile in passing explosives, while Air Force’s defense is in the 13th percentile in preventing such plays.
Navy vs Air Force
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Air Force match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 60 | |
Air Force Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 114 |  |
| Line Yards | 107 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 134 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 128 | 55 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 66 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 111 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 31 | 111 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 93 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (117) | 28.7 (96) |
| Rush Rate | 78% (3) | 79% (2) |
Navy vs Air Force Pick & Prediction
In addition to all of Navy's schematic and roster advantages, there is also an intangible aspect. There is some particularly bad blood on Navy’s side. They are seething from four straight losses, and what they see as some deeper issues that go back to the pandemic season.
Air Force played fast and loose with recruiting restrictions during COVID, and some staffers were punished by the NCAA. In addition, Calhoun used the pandemic to buff his roster by using “turnbacks,” the academy phrase for a fifth season. (Redshirts aren't allowed at the academies.) By the time Air Force cycled through these past two years, some 40-ish players had played a fifth season, an astonishing number that's unheard of for Army and Navy.
Navy (and Army, for what it's worth) are still angry over what they see as improprieties, and made it known with some snipes in the press this week. Calhoun played it cool, but make no mistake: One staff is seething to take down the other, and that staff has the schematic advantage to do so.
Pick: Navy -10 or Better
How to Watch Navy vs Air Force Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Falcon Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Navy vs Air Force Betting Trends
Navy vs Air Force Weather
