In a Week 5 matchup, the UAB Blazers (1-2) and Navy Midshipmen (3-0) battle in Birmingham on Saturday for an AAC win. This game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Blazers come out of their bye week with a win over Alcorn State and losses at Arkansas and Louisiana-Monroe.
Meanwhile, the Midshipmen are coming off a dominating upset win over Memphis and are looking to improve their perfect 3-0 record.
Navy is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a total that sits at 57.5. The Midshipmen are also -162 on the moneyline.
This is an excellent opportunity for both schools to showcase themselves on national television, which should give us a great showdown in the AAC. So, here's my Navy vs. UAB predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Navy vs. UAB Odds, Pick
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
- Navy vs. UAB spread: Navy -4.5
- Navy vs. UAB over/under: 57.5
- Navy vs. UAB moneyline: Navy -200
- UAB vs. Navy pick: Navy -3
My Navy vs UAB best bet is on Midshipmen spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs. UAB Betting Preview
Navy Football
Coming into last season, head coach Brian Newberry decided to move away from the triple option that the program has always been known for on offense.
It turned out to be a decision that didn’t fully work, as the team missed out on a bowl.
However, Newberry has made another switch to the offense which should be closer to what we're used to seeing at Navy.
The new offensive coordinator is Drew Cronic, who was the head coach at Mercer. He led the Bears to the FCS Playoffs for the first time using his hybrid Wing-T offense.
In a victory over Memphis, it was the coming out party for Cronic’s offense. Quarterback Blake Horvath rushed for 211 yards and four touchdowns, while also completing 9-of-12 passes for 192 yards and two more scores.
Horvath’s six combined touchdowns were the most by a Navy player since Malcolm Perry in 2019, and his 403 yards of total offense was the third-most in school history.
He’ll need another big performance here.
UAB Football
There's no other way to put it. The first year of the Trent Dilfer era at UAB wasn't one to remember for the school.
The Blazers failed to make a bowl game after posting a 4-8 record. This comes after the former Super Bowl champion quarterback made the jump to the FBS level with just four years of coaching experience at Lipscomb Academy.
Coming into his second season, UAB brought back some experience on the roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
The key returnee is quarterback Jacob Zeno, who's having a solid start to the year.
Through three games, Zeno ranks 14th nationally in completion percentage at 70.8%. He's also fresh off of throwing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns at Arkansas.
Another positive for the Blazers has been sophomore kicker Jonah Delange. He's one of 10 kickers in the nation with a minimum of six field goal attempts without a miss this season.
The biggest test in this one will be for the UAB defense, especially against Navy’s unique offense.
UAB vs. Navy Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UAB and Navy match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. UAB Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 10 |  |
| Havoc | 3 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 62 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 100 | |
UAB Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 95 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 96 | 60 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 100 | 21 |
| Middle 8 | 4 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (91) | 24.9 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 77% (3) | 56% (53) |
Navy vs. UAB Prediction
I just can’t get over the fact that this was a blowout when these two teams met in 2023. I’m not sure it'll be this lopsided, but I do like Navy to roll again.
So, my best bet is to take the Midshipmen to cover the three-point spread, which I would bet to -5.5. You could also find another partner for a moneyline parlay.
This is ultimately going to come down to whether UAB can stop Navy's rushing attack. If the previous games this season are any indication, I don’t have a lot of faith in the Blazers’ defense.
In a loss at ULM, the Warhawks ran for 209 yards and scored two touchdowns. They also only had to attempt 16 passes in the lopsided 32-6 win.
Yes, UAB followed up that defeat with a solid showing at Arkansas; however, the Razorbacks ran all over the Blazers for a total of 266 yards and four touchdowns.
Even with the Blazers coming off a bye, I’m still not sure this is enough time for Dilfer’s squad to come up with a scheme to stop Navy. You have to remember that the Midshipmen had 269 yards on the ground last season against them.
With a new offensive coordinator, I still think teams don’t quite have enough film on Navy this early in the year, and I like that advantage in this one.
Pick: Navy -3 (Play to -5.5)
How to Watch Navy vs. UAB
| Location: | Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
UAB vs. Navy Betting Trends
- 79% of bets and nearly 100% of the money is on Navy to cover the spread against UAB.
- 52% of the bets and 66% of the money is on the over to hit.
Navy vs. UAB Weather
