NCAAF Odds, Predictions: How We’re Betting Friday’s College Football Games (Sept. 22)
Matt Roembke/Action Network
Friday. Night. Lights.
We have four Friday college football games this week. Four!
The slate includes a Big Ten West meeting between Wisconsin and Purdue, an ACC meeting between NC State and Virginia and two Mountain West tilts, San Diego State vs. Boise State and Air Force vs. San Jose State.
Check out our staff's top pick for each of tonight's games.
Friday NCAAF Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the betting previews our college football staff wrote for Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Wisconsin travels to West Lafayette to open Big Ten play against Purdue.
The Badgers are off to a rocky start in the Luke Fickell era. Wisconsin sits at 2-1 after a loss at Washington State in Week 2, but most of its metrics are encouraging.
The Badgers are the favorites to win the Big Ten West. Winning this game is crucial if they want to return to Indianapolis.
It's been a dreadful start to the Ryan Walters era in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers have dropped two of their first three games of the season. Purdue has a lot of inexperience on both sides of the ball alongside scheme changes, which have played a part in its struggles.
Purdue has lost 16 straight games to Wisconsin and will try to break that curse on Friday.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's offense is becoming effective, changing systems from a ground-and-pound rushing attack to Phil Longo's high-tempo offense.
The Badgers used to run over 60% of the time, but now they're at a 50-50 split between the run and the pass, making them less predictable and their rushing attack more effective.
Behind the two-headed monster of Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi, the Badgers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry while ranking 25th in Rushing Success Rate, 17th in Offensive Line Yards and fifth in Stuff Rate allowed.
With that effective rushing attack, Wisconsin is 14th in Finishing Drives while averaging 6.2 yards per play.
Chez Mellusi😳 This Wisconsin RB room is something else!
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 2, 2023
Tanner Mordecai came over from SMU via the transfer portal and is struggling. He's only averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with a 74.3 PFF passing grade through three games.
It's only a three-game sample size, but Mordecai has been pretty bad when put under pressure this season, which wasn't an issue at SMU.
Image via PFF.
However, Mordecai has all the tools at his disposal to succeed. He has an excellent offensive line in front of him that's allowing a low-pressure rate, and all three of Wisconsin's top targets are back from last season.
The Badgers' defense has been pretty average through three games, allowing 4.8 yards per play while ranking 48th in EPA/Play Allowed. They're switching to a new defensive system under Mike Tressel, who was with Fickell in Cincinnati.
They returned eight starters from a defense that was top-20 in EPA/Play Allowed last season, so they should improve as the season goes along.
Purdue Boilermakers
There are a lot of changes happening on the offensive side of the ball for Purdue, as Jeff Brohm's Air Raid and Aiden O'Connell have left, making way for Graham Harrell and Hudson Card.
Harrell has a pretty even 50-50 split in terms of pass versus the run in his career, while Brohm was throwing the ball close to 58% of the time.
Harrell's balance has remained through Purdue's first three games, which may be a benefit in the long run. But so far, the Purdue offense has been inept.
The Boilermakers have played a more difficult schedule than most, but they're currently 73rd in Success Rate, 87th in EPA/Play and 101st in Finishing Drives.
The problem has been that they can't run the ball. Despite having starting running back Devin Mockobee back from last year, he's only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and Purdue is outside the top 100 in both EPA/Rush and Offensive Line Yards.
Card has been OK as a passer (71.0 PFF passing grade, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt). But if we go back to last season with Texas, he started three games when Quinn Ewers was hurt and didn't play well.
In those three games, he failed to have a PFF passing grade over 70 and didn't have a single big-time throw. He also fumbled the ball four times in their last game against Syracuse.
Walters coached one of the best defenses in the country last season at Illinois, which got him the job here at Purdue. Through three games, the Boilers have some work to do on defense.
Purdue had many transfers come in and has a lot of inexperience all over the field, so it's allowing 5.4 yards per play and ranking 89th in EPA/Play.
Wisconsin vs Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though this is a good get-right spot for Purdue — after Wisconsin allowed Georgia Tech to get inside their 40-yard-line eight times — I think it's a bad matchup for the Boilers.
Even though Mordecai has been average through three games, Purdue is outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed, EPA per Pass allowed and Coverage grade, thanks to an inexperienced secondary.
Card has also proven to be an average quarterback at best, so when the pressure is on his shoulders because Purdue can't run the ball, it's a bad combination for Harrell's offense.
I have Wisconsin projected at -10.1, so I like the value on the Badgers at -5.5, and I would play it up to -6.5.
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NC State vs. Virginia
Friday Night Lights has been kind to us from a betting perspective this season.
We have another fantastic matchup between two ACC foes as NC State travels to Charlottesville looking to build momentum against a Virginia team that has yet to record its first win.
The Wolfpack are coming off a 45-7 clobbering of VMI, a critical get-right game for quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who was coming off a poor performance against Notre Dame.
Unfortunately, Virginia’s offensive production isn't compensating enough for lousy defensive play. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 42.3 points in their three losses.
To determine if NC State will continue to build on its performance from Week 2, or if Virginia can finally find some consistency, let's look at the odds and make a prediction for the NC State Wolfpack vs. the Virginia Cavaliers.
NC State Wolfpack
The story so far this season for the Wolfpack has been the success they have had offensively. First-year offensive coordinator Robert Anae reunited this offseason with Armstrong. The duo saw similar success during their time together at Virginia in 2021.
The duo returns to Charlottesville with an offense that ranks 13th nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and 40th in Points per Opportunity.
Against a stout Notre Dame defense, the Wolfpack posted a respectable 4 Points per Opportunity but were ultimately outpaced due to turnovers.
Armstrong and company have to like this matchup against a Cavaliers defense that ranks among the worst college football teams in Success Rate allowed, Points per Opportunity allowed and Havoc generated.
In particular, Virginia’s secondary, which lost vital All-ACC starters in cornerbacks Fentrell Cypress and Anthony Johnson, has struggled mightily to replace production. As a result, Virginia is allowing 260 passing yards per game.
It is important to note that Virginia has faced a demanding schedule to start the season, with games against Tenessee, James Madison and Maryland. But we should still expect continued struggles from this defense on Friday night.
Virginia has played three games in a row where its defense struggled to get off the field, and I don't see that changing against an NC State offense with two former Cavaliers at the helm.
Virginia Cavaliers
This handicap ultimately comes down to what type of production Virginia can generate on offense. Can they keep up with NC State?
So far, the Cavaliers have relied heavily on explosive plays to get points on the board. Virginia ranks sixth nationally in offensive Explosiveness, generating 20.7 points per game through three weeks.
After starting the season with senior quarterback Tony Muskett, the Cavaliers have turned to freshman Anthony Colandrea in their past two games. Colandrea has posted a QBR of 61.5 and racked up 652 passing yards alongside a 3:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
As of writing, it's unclear who will be the starter Friday night, but one has to believe Colandrea showed enough against Maryland in Week 2 to surpass an underwhelming Muskett, who is also battling injury.
With Colandrea at the helm, Virginia posted an Explosiveness rating of 1.88 against James Madison and 1.51 against Maryland.
I expect more explosive plays from Virginia against an NC State defense that ranks 111th in explosiveness allowed.
In addition, NC State’s defense has been lousy in the red zone, ranking 125th nationally in Points per Opportunity allowed.
Virginia can generate explosive plays and punch the ball in when it matters most. I expect the Cavaliers to turn big plays into points Friday night.
NC State vs Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
This NC State defense is arguably the best Virginia has faced this season.
However, I liked what I saw out of Colandrea in a high-scoring, fast-paced game against Maryland a week ago.
I think this Virginia offense will find the end zone enough to cash Over 47.5. NC State’s duo of Armstrong and Anae will look to score on every possession, ultimately forcing Virginia to play catch-up by turning to its explosive play ability.
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Boise State vs. San Diego State
If history is any indication, this clash between Boise State and San Diego State from Snapdragon Stadium will have a heavy hand in determining the Mountain West Conference champion.
The Broncos or the Aztecs have secured a spot in the championship game every season since the inaugural title game in 2013.
Boise State had a rough start to the season against stout nonconference competition. The Broncos fell by a boatload of points in the opener to Washington, only to succumb in a nail-biter when hosting UCF.
Both sides of the ball have struggled to meet preseason expectations, just as the Broncos have started to pack a travel bag. Boise State will play at home on the Smurf Turf only twice between now and November.
San Diego State will play its fifth consecutive game after starting the season with a victory over Ohio in Week 0. The Aztecs have lost two straight to Pac-12 competition — a blowout against UCLA and a covering effort against Oregon State.
SDSU will play this game and then host Air Force next week to finish half of its schedule before October.
With both teams desperate for a victory after a tough stretch of nonconference games, the winner in Week 4 will have the inside track to the Championship game.
Boise State Broncos
Head coach Andy Avalos has a resume full of successful stops as a defense assistant and coordinator. That aspect has not translated to the field over the past two seasons at Boise State. The Broncos have shown continued struggles in creating Havoc, falling to generate a pass rush or record tackles for loss.
Fundamentals have been loose, as safety Seyi Oladipo and linebacker Marco Notarainni lead the team in tackles while also combining for seven missed tackles.
The struggles for the Broncos are not limited to the defensive side of the football, as the Boise State offense ranks near dead last in Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Taylen Green leads a new scheme under coordinator Bush Hamdan. The third-year quarterback has been inconsistent, posting four interceptions on 89 passing attempts after posting only six interceptions in all of 2022.
By design, Green hasn't left the pocket much, with only two designed rushing attempts versus six scrambles on the season.
San Diego State Aztecs
Head coach Brady Hoke entered Mountain West Conference media day worried about the experience and depth in the trench. Those worries have proven true, as the Aztecs rank dead last in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Defensive interior players Tupu Alualu and Darrion Dalton were lit up against Oregon State, failing to record a pressure with just a trio of tackles against the stout Beavers rushing attack.
Coverage has been strong for San Diego State, particularly at the cornerback position, with eight combined pass breakups from Dezjhon Malone and Noah Tumblin.
Once a heavy rushing attack with multiple running backs, the Aztecs offense has transformed into a scrambling clinic under quarterback Jalen Mayden.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Lindley has given the former defensive back the green light to tuck the ball and run in any down and distance. While Mayden struggles with turnovers in passing attempts, the senior has eight explosive runs, leading the team in rushing yards.
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, the quarterback averages a bulldozing 3.5 yards after contact and is San Diego State's best scoring source.
Boise State vs San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are two primary handicaps regarding a showdown between two dominant Mountain West programs.
Boise State will look to create explosives while keeping Green in the pocket, but San Diego State will ask Mayden to take off and run from the pocket on every offensive possession.
These two teams have played a similar strength of record and strength of schedule to this point, each posting similar defensive numbers against the rush.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty had issues holding onto the rock against North Dakota in Week 3, recording two fumbles after posting just one in 156 rushing attempts last season.
The numbers are down across the board for Jeanty, who's been limited on explosive runs. His yards-after-contact number has dropped a full yard from 2022.
Despite the issues in the running game, Boise State ranks 22nd in offensive momentum killer rate, which measures drive-killing events such as penalties and turnovers.
The San Diego State offense has been much more chaotic, ranking 113th in Havoc allowed and 116th in offensive momentum killer. Scoring opportunities have not been fruitful, as the Aztecs have averaged just three points on 22 drives that extend past the opponent's 40-yard line.
The Boise State defense has allowed big plays on the ground, but San Diego State's rank of 109th in rushing EPA will limit the number of scores from explosives.
The Action Network power ratings indicate all the value on the spread resides on the Boise State side.
There's a large discrepancy in favor of the Aztecs regarding special teams, Middle 8 scoring, penalties and third-down conversions.
Ultimately, while both quarterbacks are complete wild cards in passing downs, the Broncos' ability to establish a ground game with a higher ranking in Line Yards and Stuff Rate gives the visiting team the advantage.
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Air Force vs. San Jose State
By Doug Ziefel
Friday night ends with a bang as the Air Force Falcons head to California to take on the San Jose State Spartans.
The Falcons are off to a red-hot start and enter this matchup undefeated.
However, they're set to face a very game San Jose State squad that's already taken on some of the Pac-12's finest and can't be overlooked.
So, which side should you bet on Friday night? Let's dive in and find out.
Air Force Falcons
When it comes to Air Force (and every other service academy), opponents know what they're getting.
But can they stop it?
The Falcons' triple option is a war of attrition against the opposing defense. Air Force runs the ball at the highest rate in the country, a staggering 92%.
However, the Falcons are built for option success and have looked the part thus far. The Falcons are 16th in Rushing Success Rate, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. A big part of their success stems from the push their offensive line gets.
Air Force will have a massive edge in the trenches, as it outranks the Spartans eighth to 129th in Line Yards. San Jose State has been one of the worst teams in the country against the rush and is in for a world of trouble in this matchup.
San Jose State Spartans
On the other side of the ball, San Jose State's offense is almost the complete opposite, as the Spartans have thrown the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the country.
It makes sense. Why not keep the ball in the hands of your best player?
Spartans quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has garnered plenty of attention since throwing three touchdowns against USC in the season opener.
Cordeiro's aerial assault has led the Spartans to a 3-1 record against the spread thus far. However, he and the rest of the offense may be in for a challenge against Air Force.
The Falcons' defense is legit and has talent at all three levels. Their defensive line has shut down rushing attacks and gets to the quarterback at the second-highest rate in the country.
Their secondary is not far behind, ranking 16th in Coverage grades. Air Force is holding opponents to just six yards per pass and is 38th in opponent completion percentage.
Air Force vs San Jose State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This matchup is intriguing because these teams have entirely contrasting styles.
However, one side is built to stop the other's offensive attack.
The Falcons will control the trenches on both sides of the ball, leading to points while keeping the Spartans off the field.
Back Air Force to cover the spread.
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