The Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) take on the Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1) in a critical top-20 SEC showdown Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss enters with 2 losses in conference play, while Georgia enters with 1 SEC defeat. That makes this game critical for both teams' College Football Playoff and SEC Championship hopes.
Georgia enters as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 55.
Let's take a look at our staff's Ole Miss vs. Georgia picks and NCAAF predictions for their college football Week 11 matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Ole Miss vs. Georgia Spread: Ole Miss +2 · Georgia -2
- Ole Miss vs. Georgia Over/Under: 54.5 Total Points
- Ole Miss vs. Georgia Moneyline: Ole Miss ML +110 · Georgia ML -130
Ole Miss vs. Georgia.
Lane Kiffin vs. Kirby Smart.
Jaxson Dart vs. Carson Beck.
All the big names will be in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday when the 7-1 Bulldogs play the 7-2 Rebels.
Of more significant importance, Saturday might be a make-or-break game for the Rebels’ playoff hopes — they can’t afford a third loss after letdown defeats at the hands of Kentucky and LSU.
Smart has been automatic in big games, with a sparkling 29-15 against-the-spread record against ranked teams.
However, underdogs in SEC play are 29-13 ATS this year.
For what it’s worth, keep a close eye on the injury report before betting on this one. Ole Miss had up to 27 players on the list at one point, including key receivers Tre Harris, Cayden Lee and Jordan Watkins.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Picks, Predictions
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Spread
Our Spread Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
In a very important matchup in the SEC race, our staff leans toward the Rebels at home as short underdogs.
Yes, Kirby Smart’s team was outstanding in the road win over Texas back in October. But what about in matchups against Kentucky, Florida and Alabama?
This has not been the same dominant UGA team that we’re accustomed to seeing over the last few years. Quarterback Carson Beck has been a turnover machine, and the offense has sputtered as a result.
Meanwhile, long gone are the days of Ole Miss being soft defensively. The Rebels defense will actually be the best unit in this game, according to the advanced metrics.
Pete Golding’s defense will play behind its own crowd and make Beck and the Dawgs work for every yard it gains.
Jaxson Dart has the moxie and arm talent to deliver in a big moment at home even if he likely sees plenty of pressure from a physical Georgia front.
Ultimately, we see this game coming right down to the wire, so the value lies on the home dog in a must-win spot to keep its CFP hopes alive.
It’s time for Lane Kiffin to step up in one of these spots.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Over/Under
Over 55 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 55 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 55
Our staff is fairly split on the total, with a slight lean toward the under.
It’s hard not to lean that way.
The Rebels defense is elite. They lead the nation in Havoc and tackles for loss while ranking second in sack rate and fourth in passes defended. Six players have generated at least 20 pressures, and four have at least three PBUs.
Princely Umanmielen, JJ Pegues, Walter Nolen and Jared Ivey make up college football’s best defensive line, and linebacker Chris Paul Jr. ranks fifth nationally in Pro Football Focus’ grades.
You cannot run on the front seven — Ole Miss ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and EPA per Rush allowed.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense has looked shaky, dropping outside the top 50 nationally in EPA per Play. A big reason for that is Carson Beck’s struggles under pressure — he’s completed 36% of his passes with seven turnover-worthy plays in 66 broken pockets.
Ole Miss will get pressure on Beck, and I’m not sure if he or the Dawgs can handle it.
Meanwhile, I’m not sold on Jaxson Dart and the Rebels' attack. They haven’t been overly effective rushing the ball (ranking 60th nationally in EPA per Rush), meaning they’ll rely on Dart’s arm to beat a top-five pass defense (fifth in Success Rate allowed).
While he’s punished weaker defenses, Dart wasn’t “elite” against the better stop units on his schedule. He’s failed to crack 300 yards in three of 10 contests this year, coming against Kentucky, South Carolina and LSU, which are likely the best defenses on his schedule. He completed only 60% of his passes in that stretch.
On the spectrum of potential game scripts, Ole Miss vs. Georgia skews closer toward “rock fight” than “barn burner.”
