The Oregon State Beavers (4-5) travel to Colorado to play the Air Force Falcons (2-7) on Saturday, Nov. 16, in NCAAF Week 12 action.
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on CBS Sports Network. Oregon State is a 3.5-point favorite on the spread with a 45-point over/under.
The Beavers have lost four straight games and are starting to look lost.
Meanwhile, the Falcons snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with an upset 36-28 win over Fresno State after closing as 10-point underdogs.
Check out my Oregon State vs Air Force predictions and college football picks for this matchup.
Oregon State vs Air Force Prediction
- Oregon State vs Air Force pick: Air Force +3.5
My Oregon State vs Air Force best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread as home underdogs, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon State vs Air Force Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | -165 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | +140 |
- Oregon State vs Air Force Point Spread: Oregon State -3.5 (-110) · Air Force +3.5 (-110)
- Oregon State vs Air Force Total: Over/Under 45
- Oregon State vs Air Force Moneyline: Oregon State -165 · Air Force +140
Oregon State vs Air Force Preview
I'm fading this Oregon State team until further notice. The Beavers have lost four straight (two as a favorite) and have issues on both sides of the ball.
I'm not sure where this team is at mentally, which is not ideal during a week when full attention will be required to prepare for a unique offense.
Let's start with the offense. The Beavers recently turned to quarterback Ben Gulbranson, who just isn't a fit for offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson's offense, which operates at its best with a dual-threat under center.
Gulbranson came to Corvallis as a pro-style signal-caller, which fit what previous head coach Jonathan Smith wanted to do.
The rushing attack was the strength of the team but now becomes less efficient with Gulbranson running the show.
The Beavers still have a very good offensive line, but they really miss Jam Griffin (who remains sidelined with an injury), resulting in an increased workload for Anthony Hankerson, who has started to wear down as a result.
Plus, the Air Force defense is much stronger against the run than pass. There's only so many times Oregon State can target wide receiver Trent Walker on the outside.
While the offense continues to trend down as it deals with an identity crisis and a new quarterback who doesn't really fit schematically, the defense has been porous all season, especially against the run.
On the season, the Beavers rank outside the top 130 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed. They are one of only 10 teams in the country allowing more than 5.5 yards per carry.
Well, that's obviously problematic against Air Force's triple option.
Oregon State vs Air Force
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Air Force match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 87 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 95 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 95 | |
Air Force Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 134 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 119 | |
| Quality Drives | 105 | 110 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 66 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 119 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 103 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (103) | 29.0 (110) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (33) | 79% (2) |
Oregon State vs Air Force Pick & Prediction
Last week, Air Force ran it a whopping 80 times en route to an upset victory over Fresno State. It can follow that same formula this week by just churning three-to-four yards at a time against a defense that only has 32 tackles for loss on the season. For reference, only Georgia State and Temple have fewer.
The Falcons are a bad football team, but they at least now have the best option under center for running the triple. They also appear to definitely be trending up after a complete roster reset in the offseason, while the opposite holds true for the sinking Beavers.
Fascinatingly, under head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has only been a home dog in November five times. The Falcons won all five games outright.
I expect more of the same on Saturday.
Pick: Air Force +3.5 (-110, bet365)
Oregon State vs Air Force Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Falcon Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Oregon State vs Air Force will be played at Falcon Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.
